Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.20. SMZ is near 390.1. BOZ is near 61.50. CZ is down 4 cents and near 4.81. WZ is down 5 cents and near 6.36. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.58. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 8.18. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
Soybean futures are lower. USDA jumped US soybean crop ratings from 54 G/E to 59. IL jumped 12 to 70 G/E. AR is 67, IN 68, IA 58, MO 38, MN 47, OH 70. .US Midwest will be warm and dry next week. US exports are near 51.1 mmt vs 55.3 ly. USDA goal is 53.9 vs 58.5 ly. USDA est US 2023/24 exports near 49.6. Brazil supply is adequate. Argentina farmer is a slow seller. Argentina devaluated Peso 18 pct. Dalian soybean prices were lower but soymeal made new highs. Palmoil and soyoil were higher on talk of higher India imports. SX support is near 13.00. 13.33 is resistance.
Corn futures are lower. USDA increased US corn crop ratings from 57 G/E to 59. IL is 64 G/E. IN is 67, IA 58, MO 38, KY 73, TN 74, MN 44, NE 61, OH 76, SD 60. US Midwest will be warm and dry next week. US exports are near 35.6 mmt vs 53.0 ly. USDA goal is 41.3 vs 62.8 ly. USDA est US 2023/24 exports near 52.0. Brazil 2ND crop harvest is 70 pct and supply is adequate. France crop rating was increased from 81 G/E to 85. Argentina farmer is a slow seller. Argentina devaluated Peso 18 pct. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week.
Wheat futures are lower. Black Sea tension does not appear to attract new buying. USDA raised spring wheat crop rating to 42 pct G/E vs 41 last week and 64 ly. Spring wheat harvest is near 24 pct. US winter wheat harvest is near 92 pct. Crop is moving to storage with domestic millers covered the rest of the year. Romania announced they will push Ukraine exports from 2 mmt per month to 4 mmt. Russia export margins are positive and look to export 4 mmt per month. US exports are near 3.2 mmt vs 3.9.ly USDA goal is 19.0 mmt vs 20.6 ly.
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