Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Again, news services are reporting the possibility Russia will open 7 corridors for Ukraine food and sunoil exports. This time Bloomberg. Confirmation is lacking. Yesterday, Russia said opening Ukraine exports required lower Russian sanctions. SN is down 2 cents and near 16.78. SX is near 15.10. SMN is near 424.6. BON is near 78.44. CN is down 11 cents and near 7.60. 50 DMA is near 7.70. CZ is near 7.13. WN is down 27 cents and near 11.21. 20 DMA resistance is near 11.42. Support 11.00. KWN is down 19 cents and near 12.13. 20 DMA resistance is near 12.20. Support 12.00. MWN is down 4 cents and near 12.76. 20 DMA resistance is near 12.63. Support 12.50.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
US north plains, Great Lake states and Canada will see more rains this week. This could slow final plantings but bears feel this will add moisture to US Midwest soils. Some talking of increase prevent plant acres. US south plains forecast is drier. EU is dry. NE China is dry.
Wheat and corn are lower on talk of increase Ukraine exports. USDA dropped India wheat crop from 108.5 mmt to 99.0. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 350-1,300 mt. Wheat sales est remain low at 50-500 mt. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct from last week. US domestic corn basis remains strong. Futures daily trade volume down in front of US Holiday weekend.
Soybean futures trade volume also down in front of the 3 day weekend. US cash soybean crush margins remain positive. Brazil soybean fob basis higher. Talk Argentina could increase export tax. Matif rapeseed lower on talk of increase Ukraine sunoil exports. Indonesia palmoil export policy uncertain. Indonesia will audit palmoil companies and request HG moved on shore. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 30-1,400 mt.
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