Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
No USDA report. US government in 11h day of partial shutdown. Gaza deal? Prisoner exchange. Hamas still armed. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are mixed. Fed members expressed some caution to lower rates. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US Midwest will be warm and dry. C/N Brazil dry but rains are forecasted. US shutdown delaying aid to US farmers.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.14. Dalian soybean and soyoil were higher. Soymeal and palmoil lower. MPOB Sep palmoil stocks were higher than expected and ly. Lack of USDA October report bearish. Soybeans dealing with export headwind and soymeal domestic US basis firming. US soybean exports commit is est down 34 pct vs ly and USDA down 10. China expanded export controls on rare earth. Not good news for US/China trade deal. Nov Brazil soybean premiums firm on China return to buying, US announced $20 bil support for Argentina currency.
CORN
CZ is near 4.17. Increase US harvest is offering resistance to futures. Bears feel last 30 pct of harvest will stress storage capacity and weigh on futures and cash basis. Dalian corn is higher. Lack of USDA October report bearish. US corn export commit is est near 30 mmt and well above last year to date. Brazil corn basis firm on increase N Africa and Middle East demand. Argentina corn planting near 25 pct and above average. Argentina not competitive vs US/Brazil. China left corn import quota at 7.2 mmt vs USDA 10.0 and Ag Minister est of 6.0.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.07. KWZ is near 4.89. MWZ is near 556. Lack of USDA October report bearish, Some feel if there was a report, they would have raised Argentina , Russia and Canada crops. They may have kept Australia crop unch but lowered exports. EU logistics challenged. Egypt bought 1 mmt of Romania, French, Ukraine and Kazakhstan wheat. China left wheat import quota at 9.6 mmt and USDA est of 6.0 mmt. Russia announced 2026 acres will be down 6 pct. Russia export pace is slower that USDA est of 45.0 mmt which suggest active Oct-Jan to reach USDA goal.
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