Grains Are Quietly Mixed to Start
Grains are quietly mixed. Last Friday in Jan? SH is up 2 cents and near 15.26. SMH is near 478.5. BOH is near 61.26. CH is up 2 cent and near 6.84. WH is unch and near 7.53. KWH is down 2 cents and near 8.62. MWH is down 4 cents and near 9.14. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, cocoa and cotton are lower. Copper, coffee and sugar are higher.
Argentina and S Brazil is seeing more rains. Argentina raised their crop rating to 7 pct G/E vs 4 last week but is still below 36 ly. Argentina crop was left at 41.0 mmt vs USDA 45.5. Malaysian palmoil, Matif rapeseed and Canada canola were higher but still down on the week. US soybean export commit is near 1,710 mil bu or up 5 pct vs ly. Unshipped open sales are record high with Brazil export prices lower than US. China bought 106 mt US soybean but for 2023/24. This is last day of China holiday with signs China economy may be growing.
CH held trend line support from July low and recent Jan low and bounced to near 6.83 and has trade above the long term trend line of resistance. US farmers continue to add to old crop cash sales. US export commit is near 945 mil bu and down 45 pct vs last year. China may be asking for Ukraine export prices and new crop Brazil. Argentina raised their crop rating from 5 pct G/E to 12 but is still below 31 ly. Their crop was left at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 52.0. Matif corn traded higher after Ukraine crop was estimated at only 18.0 mmt and could drop to 12.0 . Assuming 5-6 mmt domestic use this leaves only 6-7 mmt for export vs 20.0 ly and 27.0 in 2022. This increases importance of Brazil crop for World buyers.
US HRW crop areas remain dry. Next weeks cold temps are not as cold as feared a few days ago. Rains continue in N Africa and Middle East. US wheat export commit is 588 mil bu and down 7 pct vs ly. USDA continues to support their Russia crop number of 91.0 mmt vs private estimates of 104.0 but admitted that their Russian staff are not allowed to travel and access the crop. Russian wheat stocks are estimated to be up 50 pct from ly. Ukraine crop is estimated near 16.0 mmt vs USDA 21.0 with exports 8-10 mmt vs USDA 13.0. Russian missile strikes in Ukraine following announcement of US and Germany tanks to Ukraine could suggest escalation of the war. WH has rallied from 7.12 to 7.58.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.