Grains Are Mixed
Grains are mixed.. SH up 9 cents and near 11.75. SMH is near 382.6 BOH is near 38.67. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.25. WH is down 6 cents and near 6.08. KWH is down 6 cents and near 5.75. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Last week, CRB Commodity Index tested key resistance. Untapped investment money is positive. Lower Dollar and vaccine optimism could offer commodity support for first time since late 1970’s
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 36 cents; HRW up 35; HRS up 20; Corn was up 3; Soybeans up 1 cent; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points. Crushing margins were $0.91 (MCH); Oil share 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 135 yuan in soybeans, down 14 in Corn, down 15 in Soymeal, up 80 in Soyoil, and up 34 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 42 ringgit at 3,452 (basis February) on reports of supply disruptions in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Corn futures are higher. Some now estimate Brazil corn crop closer to 105 and Argentina 45. Target 4.50-4.60 CH high. Combined private estimates of SA corn crop is 375 mil bu below USDA guess. Most analyst still forecast US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,500 versus USDA 1,702.
Wheat futures are lower. Last week, Wheat traded higher on Russia export tax and possible lower exports. Some feel Russia will now try to increase wheat exports before taxes take effect Feb 15. Lower US/Russia crop should be supportive. Some now estimate final Russia wheat crop close to 72 mmr versus USDA 84.
Soybean futures are higher. Some est US final exports up 150-175 from USDA. Some now estimate Brazil soybean crop closer to 128 mmt vs USDA 133,Could drop to 126. Mondays US soybean export inspections could be a record 100 mil bu. US 2020/21 carryout dropping to 30?
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 7,000 Corn; 6,000 Soybeans; 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 1,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 37,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 284,000 Corn; net long 151,000 Soybeans; net long 66,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 95,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.