Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is unchanged and near 13.73. SMH is near 435.1. BOH is near 44.54. CH is up 4 cents and near 5.51. WH is down 2 cents and near 6.46. KWH is up 2 cents and near 6.28. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are lower.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 65 yuan in soybeans, up 16 in Corn, up 62 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and down 50 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 93 ringgit at 3,319 (basis April) now looking at lower inventory stocks.
In Argentina, net drying is expected in much of the region through next Wednesday. In Brazil, conditions are still expected to be favorable for crops in most of the nation. Rain through next Wednesday will be notably significant from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais and some immediate nearby areas.
Brazil vessel loading is near 10.5 mmt with little actual loadings. Some China sales could switch to US. US corn is cheapest in World. Late Brazil harvest could increase US export demand. Russia policy for export prices confusing. Talk of lower Russia and EU wheat exports and cold US temps next week could support wheat futures. KC wheat continues to gain on Chicago.
World food prices rose for an eighth consecutive month in January, hitting their highest level since July 2014, led by jumps in cereals, sugar and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.
Weekly US export sales are est near a record 6,000-7.500 mt corn, 300-750 old crop soybean, 350-1,500 mt new crop soybeans and 250-700 mt wheat.
Trade looks for US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu vs USDA 1,552, soybean 123 vs 140 and wheat 834 vs 836. Trade looks for World corn carryout near 279.8 mmt vs USDA 283.8, soybean 83.3 vs 84.3 and wheat 312.8 vs 313.1. Trade looks for Brazil corn crop at 108.5 mmt vs USDA 109.0, Argentina corn 47.0 vs 47.5. USDA Brazil Ag Attaché est Brazil corn crop at 105.0. Trade looks for Brazil soybean crop at 132.4 mmt vs USDA 133.0, Argentina soybean 47.6 vs 48.0.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; net bought 14,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 401,000 Corn; net long 159,000 Soybeans; net long 75,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 115,000 Soyoil. Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,900; Corn up 16,400; Soybeans up 1,200 contracts; Soymeal up 6,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,200.
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