Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 12 cents and near 14.97. SMN is near 467.2. BON is near 55.37. CN is up 3 cents and near 6.45. WN is up 7 cents and near 7.14. KWN is up 1 cent and near 8.77. MWN is up 4 cents and near 8.92. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
Soybeans are higher following better than expected monthly US NOPA crush. Despite highest March crush on record end of month soyoil end stocks were lower than expected suggesting higher domestic use. Dalian Palmoil is higher. Soyoil and rapeoil are higher. RSO on concern of no Ukraine corridor exports. 4 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 1 average. Could be more delays with showers and cold temps over next 7 days. Brazil soybean export price continues to drop due to large supply.
Corn futures continue slow uptrend trade. Strong domestic demand has nearby futures gaining on deferred. Weekly US exports remain behind last year but talk that Ukraine export corridor deal may not be extended is raising talk that if China cannot get Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil corn will they have to buy more US? Below chart shows US commercials with lower than a short futures position which suggest they need to buy corn. US Midwest will be wet and cold over next 7 days this could delay plantings. US plantings are 8 pct done vs 5 average. Some doubt USDA Outlook yield of 181. C Brazil is dry. 65 pct of 1st crop is harvested. Spain and N Africa are dry.
Wheat futures are up on new money coming in as buyers of the grain room. Risk is back on as US Fed hits the pause button and money may be coming out of the closet back into long commodities. Bitcoin is back in favor. USDA kept US winter wheat rating at 27 pct G/E but at 34 year low. SRW only class that improved. 10 pct of crop is heading vs 8 Ave. 3 pct of US SW crop is planted vs 7 ave. Canada will be late. Australia will have to deal with El Nino. Black Sea corridor could be closed.
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