Written Commentary
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unchanged. Copper is higher. IEA lowered 2024 Global oil demand due to lower imports to China, Indonesia and Saudi Arabi. IEA raised 2025 demand due to proposed China stimulus. IEA suggested fact OPEC delayed production increase will help reduce global surplus in 2045
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.00. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were lower, soyoil higher. Rains are forecast for C/E Brazil. This am Argentina forecast is wetter. March soybean futures remain in a trading range with 10.00 midpoint and 10.20 resistance. Strong nearby demand for US soybeans offers support and keeps futures dropping to value given forecast of record 2025 supply. 2025 World soymeal supply is also forecast record high. US soyoil prices are cheapest vegoil but political uncertainty on energy demand limits new buying, Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 1,500-2,200 mt vs 2,312 last week
CORN
CH is near 4.46. Dalian corn futures were lower. Simple graph shows USDA carryout down since Sep and futures up since Oct. US corn export prices are competitive to both SA and Ukraine. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,100-1,900 mt vs 1,733 last week. US farmer increased cash sales at 4.50 SH. Brazil summer/1st crop planting are near 70 pct. Crop conditions remain favorable. Post USDA report, increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.61. KWH is near 5.65. MWH is near 6.05. Initially wheat futures found support post USDA report. Argentina raised their crop est to 19.3 mmt vs USDA 17.5. Lower Russia and EU supply could offer support but key is global demand. Global emerging countries currency could reduce wheat imports there. Weekly US export sales are est at 275-600 mt vs 378 last week. India lowered allowable private wheat stock holdings due to higher domestic prices. To late for imports as harvest nears.
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