Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2024
October 8, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up. CZ is down. WZ is down. KWZ is down. MWZ is unch. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude are marginally higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Gold and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Higher US soybean crush offers support to soybeans. Drop in NOPA soyoil stocks offers support to soyoil. Some are already talking about higher US crush for soyoil adding to soymeal stocks if Argentina 2024 soybean crop is normal. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. India inflation jumped to 7.4 pct in July vs 4.8 in June. This could temper imports. Trade trying to find new buying near SX resistance due to hot and dry Midwest forecast for next 2 weeks. Pro Farmer crop tour next week. Bears looking for higher yields. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 550-1,300 mt vs 1,096 last week.
Corn futures are lower. Dalian corn futures traded sharply lower due to increase worries about China economy and commodity imports. Trade trying to find new buying near CZ support near 4.73 due to hot and dry Midwest forecast for next 2 weeks. Pro Farmer crop tour next week. Bears looking for higher yields. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 500-1,000 mt vs 758 last week. There was talk of higher Ukraine crops. Export logistics still in question. Brazil corn supply continues to satisfy China demand and limits new US demand. Higher US supply still limits futures rally despite slowdown in US, Brazil and Argentina farmer selling.
Wheat futures are lower. US SRW export prices are below EU and Russia. Temps are above normal in US, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, India and Argentina. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-525 mt vs 567 last week. There was talk of higher Ukraine crops. Russia is trying to maximize wheat exports. Some talking Aussie crop at 25-27 mmt vs USDA 29.
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