Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US has drawn down SPR to 1983 lows which adds volatility to energy prices.
Soybean futures are lower. Some feel soybean, soymeal and soyoil longs are liquidating positions before next weeks USDA report. Trade est US soybean yield near 50.2 vs 50.9 in August and a range of 49.6-51.0. US 2023/24 soybean carryout is estimated near 207 mil bu vs USDA August 245. Dalian soybean , soymeal and soyoil futures are lower. Soymeal is the lowest since July. Palmoil is at one month low. Argentina estimated 2024 soybean crop at 50 mmt vs 21 ly and USDA 48. Weekly Soybean export sales are est near 1,400-2,000 mt.
Corn futures are slightly lower. US and EU corn harvest is starting which limits fund buying. Brazil corn exports are supported by low US Miss river logistics and slow Ukraine exports. Argentina estimated 2024 corn crop at 55 mmt vs 34 ly and USDA 54. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 vs 175.1 in August and a range of 171.5-175.0. A 173.5 yield could still be above demand and offers resistance to futures. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct from ly. Stocks were down 6 pct vs ly. Trade will watch China import needs. Weekly corn export sales are est near 400-1,000 mt.
Wheat futures are lower. US south plains could see rains. Matif wheat futures are lower due to record Russia monthly wheat exports vs lower US and EU. Trade est World wheat carryout near 264.4 mmt vs 265.6 in August. Range 260-266. Trend is lower in World wheat supply. Argentina est 2024 wheat crop near 16.5 mmt vs 12.1 ly and USDA 17.5. Weekly wheat export sales are est near 250-600 mt.
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