Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 5 cents and near 13.97. SMZ is near 413.2. BOZ is near 63.77. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.90. WZ is up 6 cents and near 6.06. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.31. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.83. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures are higher. US soybean 2 week forecast is dry. Some rains are forecast in N and E Argentina. Dalian soybean prices were lower, soymeal and soyoil lower. Palmoil higher. USDA announced 246 mt new soybean sales to unknown and 105 mt soymeal also to unknown. US barge prices are higher due to low Miss river water levels. Argentina crush is dropping due to low soybean supplies. There is talk Argentina will increase soybean imports. Ukraine looks to shift from oilseed exports to product exporters. SX resistance is 14.09, SMZ 421 and BOZ 64.27. most look for no soybean and soymeal Sep deliveries and 2,000 soyoil.
Corn futures are higher. There is little new news. Prices are trying to recover from Tuesdays losses. First resistance is near 4.99. Trade debating final US corn yield but some fear US 2023/24 demand may drop below USDA estimate and could reduce price impact of a lower yield. US corn cif prices are up due to low Miss river water levels and reduces US competitiveness vs Brazil. There is still uncertainty over pace of Ukraine exports. There no deliveries expected on Sep.
Wheat futures are mixed. KC and Chicago trying to regain some of recent losses while MWZ is lower. Australia, Argentina, Canada and Black Sea crops could decline. There is no geopolitical and weather premium in US futures. Slow EU exports is weighing on global wheat prices. Managed funds are net short 82,000 Chicago wheat contracts. Algeria is tendering for durum wheat. Egypt is tendering for wheat. EU has a freight advantage over US SRW. Vietnam rice prices are sharply high on fear of lower India supplies. There could be 500-1,000 Chicago wheat Sep deliveries.
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