Global Ag News For Feb 12

TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 35 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 4 cents; HRW down 9; HRS down 6; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans up 11 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 110 points. Crushing margins up $0.01 $0.67 (July); Oil share up 1% at 34%.

Chinese Ag futures on holiday from Feb. 11 to 17 (Thursday to Wednesday) for the celebration of Chinese Spring Festival. Resumes on Feb. 18 (Thursday).

Malaysian palm oil prices were closed for holiday.

Conditions will continue to be favorable in most of Brazil the next two weeks.

Net drying will occur through next Thursday from La Pampa into Corrientes and eastern Formosa of Argentina. Some erratic rain will at least slow the drying a little; however, some crop stress may still increase, especially in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires where conditions have been drier. Critically dry conditions will still not occur though. Last evening’s GFS model run also continued to show greater rainfall for Argentina in the second week of the outlook compared to the first.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 1,000 SRW Wheat; bought 22,000 Corn; net bought 11,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 339,000 Corn; net long 177,000 Soybeans; net long 70,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,100; Corn up 8,100; Soybeans up 5,900 contracts; Soymeal up 7,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 14,700.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023. 

Tender Activity—Turkey bought 235,000t optional-origin corn—Egypt bought 30,000t optional-origin soyoil—

 

U.S All Wheat sales are up 5%, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

By class, HRW wheat sales down 5%, shipments up 1%, with USDA down 2%

SRW down 22%, shipments down 32% (USDA down 18%)

HRS up 9%, shipments up 2% (USDA up 6%)

Corn up 142%, shipments up 82% (USDA) up 34%

Soybeans up 81%, shipments up 82% (USDA up 34%)

Soymeal down 1%, shipments up 16% (USDA up 1%)

Soyoil down 9%, shipments up 10% (USDA down 3%)

 

NOPA January U.S. soy crush seen at 183.087 million bushels. The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST on Tuesday.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of January were seen rising to 1.763 billion pounds compared with 1.699 billion pounds at the end of December and 2.013 billion pounds at the end of January 2020. Estimates ranged from 1.710 billion to 1.850 billion pounds

Tyson Foods shares drop as quarterly sales miss estimates.

Pilgrim’s Pride CEO says foodservice distributors are asking more questions about meat availability throughout the year, which the chicken company sees as a sign of pandemic-hit restaurant business rebounding. The No. 2 US chicken producer says poultry stands to do better than beef or pork since it tends to be cheaper and more versatile in how it can be prepared.

The Mexican government’s plan to stop importing genetically modified (GMO) corn as well as the widely-used herbicide glyphosate will likely face legal challenges this month to reverse the proposal, according to the new head of Mexico’s top farm lobby.

Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecast for soybean and corn production for the 2020-2021 growing season as more rainfall at the end of December and in January improved the outlook for the development of the crops.

Brazilian farmers will produce a record 133.8 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In January the agency forecast a crop of 133.7 million tons. Brazil produced 124.8 million tons of soybeans in 2019-2020, the previous record.

Conab raised its forecast for total corn production to a record 105.5 million metric tons, up from the January forecast of 102.3 million tons and from the previous record of 102.5 million tons produced in 2019-2020.

Abundant rains in recent weeks in Argentina have lifted forecasts for soybean and corn harvests, according to a revised outlook by the Rosario grains exchange, a major boost for the grains producer amid a global food price rally.

—The exchange raised its forecast for the 2020/21 soybean harvest to 49 million tonnes, versus 47 million previously, and for corn to 48.5 million tonnes from 46 million earlier, when dry conditions had raised concerns over crops.

—The exchange said in the monthly report sent to Reuters early on Thursday that the rains in recent weeks had been a “turning point” in the season and banished any fears about a repeat of the 2018 drought that caused heavy crop losses.

Rice export prices in India remained anchored near a three-year high this week as other Asian and African buyers continued purchases, shrugging off the uptick in rates in recent weeks. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety was quoted at $402-$408 per tonne this week, unchanged from last week, which was the highest since May 2018.

India’s palm oil imports jumped 31% in January from a year earlier as lower import taxes prompted refiners to increase purchases of the tropical oil, while soyoil and sunflower oil imports fell, a trade body said.

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