Global Ag News Headlines for May 19

Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil down 5 points.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 13 yuan, up 3 yuan in Corn, up 7 in Soymeal, up 12 in Soyoil, and up 38 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 9 ringgit at 2,151 (basis August) at midsession

U.S. Weather Forecast

Last night’s GFS model run was wetter in dry-biased areas of the southwestern Hard Red Winter Wheat Region May 28 – 30; the model suggested too strong of a cool air mass in the Corn Belt and Delta which led to an overdone frontal boundary in the Southeast with too much moisture

South America Weather Forecast

Last night’s GFS model run showed little to no changes with the meaningful rain event shown to impact Safrinha crop areas of Brazil Thursday through Friday.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 3,000 Corn; net bought 6,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 5,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 230,000 Corn; net long 29,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 1,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 4,100; Corn up 4,400; Soybeans up 290 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,900.

There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 11; Soybeans down 67; Soymeal down 30)—

Registrations total 16 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 221; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 547; Rice 230; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.

TODAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS —

Winter Wheat Heading was 56% versus 44% last week, 51% a year ago, and 62% average

—Winter Wheat was rated 52% good to excellent versus 53% last week and 62% a year ago

—32% fair versus 31% last week and 26% a year ago

HRS Wheat plantings were 60% complete versus 80% average

—Emergence 30% versus 46% average

Corn plantings were 80% complete versus 71% average

—Corn emerged was 43% versus 40% average

Oats planted were 86% done verus 87% average

—Emergence 69% versus 70% average

—75% of the crop was rated good to excellent

Soybean plantings were 53% complete versus 38% average

—Soybeans emerged were 18% versus 12% average

Weekly exports for wheat totaled 440,000t versus trade estimates of 300,000 to 600,000t putting YTD 23.9 mt versus 23.7 mt a year ago

Corn exports 1.150 mt (estimate 800,000 to 1.3 mt) putting YTD at 26.2 mt versus 37.5 mt a year ago

Soybean exports 352,000t (estimates 300,000 to 650,000t) YTD at 34.8 mt versus 33.2 mt a year ago

China added to tensions with Australia on Monday by announcing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties totaling 80.5% on Australian barley imports from May 19, which is expected to all but halt a billion-dollar trade between them; China’s Ministry of Commerce said it had confirmed dumping by Australia and significant damage on its domestic industry as a result, following an inquiry which began in 2018

Brazilian soybean exports in the first two weeks of May reached 8.8 million tons, according to government trade data indicating demand from top customer China remained strong; in the first four months of the year, Brazil exported 36 million tons of soybeans, according to shipping agency Cargonave, with China alone importing 26.5 million tons from Brazil.

– Brazilian meatpacker JBS SA said that it will take legal measures to reverse an order from a regional labor authority to close one of its poultry plants in southern Brazil amid the spread of the COVID-19 respiratory disease

Russian export prices for the new wheat crop, which is due to arrive this summer, fell last week following a decline in the global benchmark in Chicago; beneficial May rain put Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan – all major Black Sea producers – back on track for large wheat exports in the new marketing season after a dry April

—The new crop of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $195-197 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week vs $198-200 a week earlier, SovEcon consultancy said

—IKAR, another Moscow agriculture consultancy, pegged the new crop of wheat for delivery in July-August at $195 a ton, down $1.

Ukraine has almost completed its 2020 spring grain sowing, seeding 14.1 million hectares, economy ministry said; Ukraine plans to harvest 65-68 million tons of grain this year compared with a record 75 million tons in 2019.

—Ukraine’s grain exports have reached a record 52.73 million tons so far in the 2019/20 season that began last July, up around 17% year on year, the economy ministry said on Monday.

The exported volume included 19.8 million tons of wheat, 27.5 million tons of corn and 4.8 million tons of barley, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture said.

The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS on Monday cut its yield forecasts for nearly all crops this year following two months of unusually hot and dry weather across the bloc; MARS cut its projected EU soft wheat yield average for 2020 to 5.72 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) from an estimate of 5.87 t/ha in April; the new forecast was 4.7% below last year’s yield and 0.9% below the average over the past five years.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 30.26 million tons by May 17, official EU data showed; that was 64% above the volume cleared by May 12 last year.

—EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 6.64 million tons, up 65% from the year-earlier period

—EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 18.11 million tons, down 15%

European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 13.02 million tons by May 17, official EU data showed; that was 1% below the volume cleared by May 12 last year

—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.37 million tons, up 41% versus the year-earlier period

—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were at 15.73 million tons, up 3%, while palm oil imports stood at 5.01 million tons, down 12%

China effectively banned Australian barley imports after concluding Canberra’s water market was a subsidy for growers, documents showed on Tuesday, a position Australian government sources described as ludicrous; Australia said it was considering an appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as it tries to dampen fears that China is launching a trade war in retaliation for Australia’s calls for an investigation into the origin of the novel coronavirus.

A United Nations aid agency has purchased about 80,000 tonnes of wheat expected to be sourced from Ukraine to be shipped to Sudan, European traders said

Romania’s wheat output is expected to fall sharply this year due to prolonged drought, but the Black Sea exporter should amass a robust surplus to offer in Egypt’s international grain tenders, farmers and experts said on Monday.

European Union’s second-largest grain seller Romania is a major cereals seller to the Middle East, along with France and Russia, with Egypt its key buyer.

Indonesia is set to distribute $2.78 trillion rupiah ($187 million) for its ambitious B30 biodiesel program and increase its palm oil export levy by $5 per ton; we need 3.54 trillion rupiah to maintain B30,” Mulyani said in a virtual media briefing, referring to the country’s biodiesel mandate which has 30% palm-based bio-content; “760 billion rupiah will be funded by businesses through a $5 per ton increase in the export levy, and by the government through the state budget,” she said, adding that the government will contribute 2.78 trillion rupiah.

Tunisia expects cereal harvest this year to drop to 1.57 million tons from 2.4 million tons last year due to a lack of rain, TAP state news agency quoted the agriculture minister