Global Ag News For Sept 22.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Thailand Bans Animal-Feed Corn From Burned Fields in Major Shift

Thailand will ban imports of animal-feed corn produced from agricultural burning, a move that should help curb a worsening cross-border pollution issue while paving the way for purchases from the US.

Feed mills must present proof that imported corn is from burn-free sources from Jan. 1, Duangarthit Nidhi-u-tai, deputy director-general of the Department of Foreign Trade, told reporters in a briefing on Monday.

Bangkok and other parts of Thailand periodically suffer heavy smog, with poor air quality sometimes forcing schools to close. The corn rule has been billed as a sustainable way to fight air pollution, but it is also seen as a step toward opening imports from the US, the world’s largest corn producer, as part of pledges to give Washington greater market access in exchange for a tariff deal.

“This is the first time Thailand is implementing an environmental measure on agricultural imports,” Duangarthit said, adding that the measure still needs a final sign-off from the cabinet in the coming weeks.

During a transitional period that begins Jan. 1, such imports may be certified by importers, state agencies from exporting countries, or international organizations. That would end as soon as the Clean Air Act becomes enforced, he said. Afterward, the government will implement stricter regulations and require more details from importers, who could face one-year bans if they fail to comply.

Thailand normally imports corn from neighbors including Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, where farmers rely on slash-and-burn practices. The resulting fires create thick smoke, and winds often push the haze into northern and northeastern Thailand, intensifying the country’s seasonal air pollution crisis.

The three neighboring countries supplied 2 million tons of corn to Thailand in 2024. Thailand needs more than 8 million tons of corn each year to produce livestock feed, but produces only about 5 million tons domestically.

In recent years, Thailand has weighed banning corn imports from its neighbors, which have benefited from zero import tariffs as part of a regional trade pact.

The US, on the other hand, hasn’t yet been able to export corn to Thailand as the two countries’ agricultural authorities still need to sign a separate agreement. But as part of negotiations with the US that resulted in Washington imposing a 19% tariff rate, Thailand offered to scrap tariffs on 90% of US goods, including corn, soybean meal and other agricultural products.

Other countries that could benefit from the new corn import rules include Mexico, Argentina, India and Pakistan, Duangarthit said. All are members of the World Trade Organization and have agricultural agreements with Thailand.

Thailand is also working on measures to protect the domestic market. The previous administration of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra had said it may require local feed mills to absorb all homegrown corn first, at set prices, before being granted quotas to import supplies, including from the US.

The government may also allow corn imports only during specific windows when there’s no harvest in Thailand, to minimize any impact on local output.

The previous administration didn’t finalize details before it was ousted at the end of August. The new cabinet of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is expected to be sworn in later this week.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.23.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 23 1/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 2.01.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 1/2 in SRW, down 13 3/4 in HRW, down 13 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans down 35 1/4; Soymeal down $5.80; Soyoil down 1.75.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.8% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 4.8% in HRS; Corn is down 7.6%; Soybeans up 2.1%; Soymeal down 8.3%; Soyoil up 24.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 26; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil down 14; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 17.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 17 ringgit (+0.38%) at 4442.

There were changes in registrations (-3 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 140 Oats; 91 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 45 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 19 were: SRW Wheat up 2,235 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,324, Corn up 9,133, Soybeans up 6,571, Soymeal up 2,373, Soyoil down 4,880.

 

MODERATE NORTH AMERICA RAINS LATE IN THE MONTH SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH HARVEST DISRUPTION

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

What to Watch:

• Widespread warmth will dominate across the U.S. until early October when cooler conditions may move in from the west, while regional rains will be persistent
• Warmth will prevail along the Canadia Prairies through the next couple weeks, and a round of rains may arrive late in the month before cold risks increase
• Upcoming moderate rains along the U.S. Corn Belt will boost soil moisture for winter crops, while the warm outlook across the continent will benefit the spring crop harvest

 

Northern Plains: A few showers continued over the eastern Dakotas over the weekend. A few showers will move through western areas on Monday, but drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and a few areas of heavy rain moved through over the weekend. Another system will move into the region on Monday with showers through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions afterward will be more favorable for harvest.

Midwest: Isolated showers became scattered over the weekend, leading to some areas of heavy rain. Showers continue on Monday and another system moves into the region late on Tuesday and continues the showers eastward through the end of the week. The showers are likely to delay harvest, but drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

Delta: Isolated showers became a bit more scattered over the weekend. Scattered showers will increase as another system moves into the region midweek, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the quick-expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected by the weekend that continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

Brazil: A strong cold front is moving into southern Brazil late on Sunday. It will move into central Brazil on Monday and stall from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before fizzling out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a quicker start on planting. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

Argentina: A front moved through over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country’s growing areas. Cold air is following behind that front and some limited frosts are forecast across southeastern areas of the region, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. Soybean planting will begin in October.

Europe: A system moved into western areas of the continent over the weekend, with heavy rain in France. That system will continue to spread showers eastward throughout the week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Black Sea: A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the region last week, but this week remains much drier. The recent rain may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought. Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much, if any, rainfall.

Australia: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may be producing limited frosts in southeastern areas over the next couple of mornings, which may impact wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week, which could put some stress on reproductive crops.

China: Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast got some drier weather over the last week, but will find a wave of showers moving through early this week. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

 

The player sheet for 9/19 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 9,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 206,460 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyers for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 63,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Monday without an international tender being issued
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was still considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed this week with no purchase yet made
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.78M Head in Aug.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 9.9% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 8.5%
• The US feedlot herd as of Sept. 1 were down 1.1% y/y to 11.08m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 13.6% to 1.571m head

 

S&P Global forecasts fewer US corn plantings, more soy in 2026

S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Friday that U.S. farmers would plant 94.5 million acres of corn next year, down 4.3% from this year, and 84 million acres of soybeans, up 3.6%, according to a report from the firm seen by Reuters.

Farmers are struggling to turn profits on both crops this year because supplies are ample and China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, has not bought U.S. soy from the autumn harvest amid its tariff dispute with Washington.

Growers will plant their 2026 crops next spring, and S&P Global’s report said there was more uncertainty than normal around its early estimates due to ongoing trade negotiations.

This spring, farmers planted more corn and fewer soybeans than they did in 2024, hoping to eke out a profit and shield themselves from U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs.

S&P Global could not immediately be reached for comment.

The firm estimated 2026 U.S. all-wheat plantings at 44.6 million acres, down about 1.8% from 2025, and 2026 cotton plantings at 10.3 million acres, up 10.8%, according to the report.

 

Argentina grains, byproducts exports could hit record in 25/26 season, exchange says

Argentina’s exports of grains and their byproducts could hit a record 105.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, the Rosario grains exchange said on Friday.

That would top the 101.6 million tons of exports logged in the previous season as well as the record 104.1 million tons in the 2018/19 season, according to the exchange.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn.

In its report, the exchange projected shipments of grains and oilseeds at 64.7 million tons, with 62% being corn sales.

Exports of oils and meals, meanwhile, were estimated at 40.4 million tons, with the vast majority derived from soybeans.

The record exports could also come from a bountiful year in the fields, the exchange said, with total grains harvests expected to bring in 146.4 million tons of crop.

However, with lower grains prices on the international market, the bumper crop would represent the same foreign-currency income as in the previous season, $34.8 billion, the exchange said.

Agricultural exports are a key source of foreign currency for Argentina.

Argentina’s wheat crop is currently in its most crucial growth phase, with the harvest set to kick off in November. Farmers began planting corn over the past several weeks, with soybean planting to start in October.

 

China August soybean arrivals from Brazil rise 2.4%

China’s soybean imports from Brazil climbed 2.4% in August from a year earlier, as buyers sought to boost inventories to mitigate supply disruption risks in the fourth quarter.

The world’s top soybean buyer imported 10.49 million metric tons from Brazil last month, accounting for 85.4% of the total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed on Saturday.

August marked another month this year in which China’s soybean imports have hit record highs for the month, following May, June and July. CNC-SOY-IMP

August arrivals from the U.S. stood at 227,205 tons, up 12.3% a year earlier.

For January-August, China imported 52.74 million tons from Brazil, down 2.0% year-on-year, while shipments from the U.S. totalled 16.8 million tons, up 30.9%, the data showed.

Imports of U.S. soybeans have surged due to a delayed Brazilian harvest, which extended the U.S. export window, and due to prolonged customs clearance times in the early months of the year, analysts have said.

Beijing has, however, yet to book any soybean shipments from the new U.S. crop.

The shift since 2017 away from U.S. supplies – exacerbated by U.S.-Sino trade tensions – has raised concern among American farmers, who are entering the autumn harvest season facing weak crop prices.

In response, Republican farm-state lawmakers are urging President Donald Trump’s administration to issue economic aid for farmers by the year’s end.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s overall soybean exports are expected to remain strong. On Wednesday, Brazilian grain exporters’ association ANEC projected September exports to reach 7.53 million metric tons, slightly above last week’s estimate of 7.43 million tons.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab on Thursday projected the South American country’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 177.67 million metric tons in 2026, up 3.6% from the previous year.

China imported 1.05 million tons of soybeans from Argentina in August, down 18.6% from a year earlier. January-August soybean imports from the country reached 1.72 million tons, up 6.2% from the same period last year.

 

Brazil farmers plant 0.7% of 2025 soybean area, says consultancy Patria Agronegocios

• BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 0.7% OF 2025 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 0.25% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

Palm Oil Seen Between 4,200-4,500 Ringgit in Coming Weeks: MPOC

Palm oil is likely to trade between 4,200 ringgit and 4,500 ringgit a ton over the next few weeks, with weaker demand from top buyers and stronger biofuel mandates in major edible oil producers seen shaping the market, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• NOTE: The tropical oil rose as much as 1.1% to 4,473 ringgit in Kuala Lumpur on Monday
• Gains will be capped by softer demand, but prices may get support from biodiesel policies in various countries, which may limit surpluses of palm oil exports from Indonesia and soybean oil shipments from the US and Brazil, it said in a statement on Monday
• Consumption of major vegetable oils is expected to outpace production growth in 2026, resulting in a modest supply deficit that will keep prices supported through end-2025
  • Indonesia’s export surplus may fall further if its biodiesel mandate is raised to B50
• Malaysian palm oil inventories are seen rising slightly in September and October, before easing in November, as production in top-growing states of Sabah and Sarawak has yet to reach its seasonal peak
• Palm production in Malaysia will enter the low-yield season in November
• Crude oil prices have stabilized at around $60/barrel, and have potential to rise, which may provide further support to vegetable oils

 

Indonesia Aug. Palm Oil Exports Rise 3.02% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 3.02% m/m in August, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 2.592m tons from 2.516m tons in July
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 319,901 tons from 475,330 tons in July
• RBD palm olein shipments rose to 1.011m tons from 946,912 tons in July
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 435,706 tons from 461,058 tons in July
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 281,434 tons from 257,249 tons in July
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 751,046 tons from 976,482 tons in July
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 491,531 tons from 323,957 tons in July

 

Xi Says China to Boost Agricultural Production Capacity: Xinhua

China will strengthen its support for agricultural technology and equipment, as well as boost the country’s overall agricultural production capacity, President Xi Jinping says in a message to farmers ahead of the Chinese farmers’ harvest festival, Xinhua News Agency reports.

• China to adopt measures to drive employment and income for farmers, Xi says
• Xi expects a bumper harvest this year as China has overcome impacts of natural disasters

 

Indonesia Expands Food Aid Package to Include Cooking Oil: CNBC

Indonesia will add 2 liters of Minyakita, a government-supported cooking oil brand, to its national food aid program, reports CNBC Indonesia on Monday, citing Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto.

• Govt to provide 10 kilograms of rice to each recipient for the next two months: report
• To boost domestic travels, govt will cover the value-added tax (VAT) on plane tickets and other transportation modes during yearend holidays
• In addition, properties priced as much as 2 billion rupiah will receive similar incentives until 2026

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar decreases and limits trades

The US dollar registered the lowest level since June/24 this week, leading sellers to be away from closing deals involving large volumes. The dollar decrease tends to press down the export parity and, consequently, domestic prices.

Thus, some agents, aiming to obtain margins with the current soybean price (it is worth noting that, despite the recent decrease, the monthly average is the highest of this year, in real terms) and to sell off part of the remaining product from the 2024/25 season, preferred to trade in the spot market with an atypical payment term.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.9% from September 11-18, closing at BRL 139.81 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 18. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) also decreased 0.9% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 134.18 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) moved down 0.6% and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) between September 11 and 18.

Other agents, in turn, were focused on crop activities in the United States and in Brazil. The USDA indicates that the 2025/26 harvesting in the US reached 5% of the 32.5 million hectares until September 14, and the production is likely to reach 117.04 million tons.

In Brazil, the 2025/26 crop has started to be planted. In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral, 3% of the area had been planted. Producers in the Central-West, on the other hand, are waiting for more consistent rains.

According to data from Conab, the 2025/26 area in Brazil is likely to hit the record of 49.08 million hectares, with the output at 177.6 million tons, slightly higher than that forecast by the USDA (175 million tons).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Exports move up; prices continue firm

Corn shipments from Brazil have gained pace this month, after months registering a below-expected performance.

In the first ten producing days of September, Brazil exported 3.05 million tons, practically half the volume registered in the entire month of September last year. However, in the accumulated of the season (between February and the partial of September/25), the volume totaled 15 million tons, lower than the 19 million tons verified in the same period of 2024.

The second semester typically registers an increase of sales to the international market; moreover, the record crop has been leading producers to boost trades to export. In spite of the recent dollar devaluation, quotations are firm at ports.

In the domestic market, sellers continue to limit the supply to consumers in Brazil and to offer the product at high price levels. Thus, despite the high supply, purchasers who have needs to close deals face high quotations.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 0.6% between September 11 and 18, to close at BRL 65.33 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 18. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values increased 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors), but dropped 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar decreased 1.6% over the last seven days, closing at BRL 5.31 on Sept. 18.

CROPS – As for the 2025/26 summer crop, the planted area in Brazil is at 14.7% until Sept. 13 (Conab). In Paraná, 44% of crops had been planted (Seab/Deral), while in Rio Grande do Sul, the percentage is at 53% of the area (Conab).

The harvesting of the second crop reached 99.1% of the area until September 13, according to Conab – only Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná need to finish activities.

 

Taiwan to Buy $10b of US Soybeans, Corn, Beef Over 4 Years: US

“Taiwan just committed to $10 billion in US agriculture buys over the next 4 years, including soybeans, corn, wheat & beef,” US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says.

Rollins comments in a post on X

 

Brazil Agency Lets Environment Parties Have Say in Soy Process

Brazil’s Environment Ministry and environmental watchdog Ibama have been accepted as interested third parties in the process investigating the Soy Moratorium, antitrust regulator Cade said in a dispatch published in the official gazette.

• “The benefit that both bodies can bring to the investigation is clear,” Cade said
• Regulator gave both parties five days to present additional information to the process

 

 

 

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