Global Ag News For Sept 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

EU Wraps Up Trade Deal With Indonesia in Push for New Markets

The European Union and Indonesia have concluded trade talks after nearly a decade as part of the bloc’s efforts to diversify its supply chains and open new markets.

EU Trade chief Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on Sept. 23 for the announcement, according to European Commission Spokesman Olof Gill. There will be a joint statement that the negotiation is substantially completed, spokeswoman for the Indonesian Trade Ministry, N.M. Kusuma Dewi said.

The agreement will need the approval of a majority of EU member states and the European Parliament as well as Indonesia’s legislature before it comes into force.

The EU has been accelerating efforts to clinch trade deals with countries around the world as it diversifies away from the US since President Donald Trump sought to reset transatlantic relations on American terms. European officials have intensified negotiations with some of the largest global economies, including India, and have concluded talks with the South American bloc of Mercosur, which includes Brazil and Argentina. The EU has also ramped up negotiations with Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

The conclusion of the negotiations with Indonesia followed the political agreement reached on the bilateral comprehensive agreement between the two sides in July.

Indonesia, South East Asia’s largest economy, is an important partner for the EU, with a rising economy of 300 million consumers and a potential source of raw materials. But the bilateral relationship has been strained over the EU’s deforestation regulation, which aims to combat the felling of trees abroad as a result of the bloc’s demand for key commodities, like palm oil and coffee. Indonesia has been one of the most vocal critics of the rules.

The Financial Times reported earlier about the conclusion of the negotiations.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil down 0.37.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $4.00; Soyoil down 0.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans down 15 1/4; Soymeal down $4.40; Soyoil down 0.73.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.9% in SRW, down 7.6% in HRW, down 3.7% in HRS; Corn is down 7.0%; Soybeans up 4.2%; Soymeal down 8.1%; Soyoil up 28.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 22 yuan; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil down 116; Palm oil down 150; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 41.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 41 ringgit (-0.92%) at 4434.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 140 Oats; 91 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 48 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 17 were: SRW Wheat down 1,481 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,464, Corn up 10,403, Soybeans up 13,847, Soymeal up 2,425, Soyoil up 11,892.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the region over the last several days. Areas of showers will continue through Friday. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the region with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

Midwest: Temperatures remain hot this week and probably next week as well. Isolated showers over western areas will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving. With how slow-moving the system and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain, which is most likely across the west. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

Delta: Only spotty showers are in the forecast for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

Brazil: Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early for those in central Brazil. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

Argentina: Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it over the next several days, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

 

The player sheet for 9/17 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States or South America in a private deal late last week without an international tender being issued.
• CORN SALE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased animal feed corn in an international tender seeking around 120,000 metric tons that closed on Tuesday.
• FEED BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A South Korean flour mill bought an estimated 30,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in an international tender on Thursday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 11.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,900k tons, with avg of 1,067k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 808k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1% to 22.602M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.856 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.055m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.083m

 

Canada 2025-26 Crop Production After Statscan Model-Based Report

The following table compares current Canadian crop production estimates from Statistics Canada to the ones the agency published on Aug. 28.

• Total wheat crop seen 1.1m tons higher than the Aug. 28 est.
• From the report: “Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase 1.9% year over year to 36.6 million tonnes in 2025, largely attributable to higher anticipated yields, which are expected to rise by 1.8% to 51.1 bushels per acre.”
• Canola est. 20m tons, slightly higher than in Aug.

 

CROP TENDER: USDA Seeks US Sorghum Offers for Shipment to Kenya

The US Department of Agriculture is looking for offers of 26,700 tons of US sorghum for shipment to Kenya, the agency said Wednesday in a statement.

• Shipping period is Nov. 10-20
• Contract will be awarded Sept. 25

 

Russia Held Talks With Wheat Traders to Boost Sluggish Exports

Russian officials have held talks with the country’s major grain traders in an effort to boost exports from the world’s top wheat shipper after a sluggish start to the season, according to people familiar with the matter.

There have been at least two rounds of talks with officials — including with Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev — in recent months, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the details are private. One proposal to encourage exports revolves around subsidies for transporting grain by rail to ports, the people said.

Russia’s commodity exports are a major revenue source for the Kremlin. Its wheat supplies countries around the world, and shipments are expected to inch higher in the season that began in July. But combined volumes in the first two months slid almost 40% from a year earlier to 6.1 million tons, and September’s amount will probably remain at historically low levels, consultant SovEcon said earlier this month.

Traders say that prices in the domestic market have made it more attractive to sell there than overseas, and that a government tax on exports that was introduced in 2021 has also weighed on shipments.

During the talks, which started in July, Patrushev pushed traders for assurances that they’ll meet the government’s export targets, the people said. Russia plans to export about 33 million tons of grain in the second half of the year, the agriculture ministry said earlier this month.

The agriculture ministry and the Russian Union of Grain Exporters didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Russia’s wheat exports dropped roughly 23% from a record to 43 million tons last season, and are forecast at 45 million tons this season, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA last week trimmed the outlook by 1 million tons.

Patrushev in May acknowledged Russia’s significant decline in grain exports and said prompt measures were needed to fix the situation and retain market share, Interfax reported at the time.

 

EU Wraps Up Trade Deal With Indonesia in Push for New Markets

The European Union and Indonesia have concluded trade talks after nearly a decade as part of the bloc’s efforts to diversify its supply chains and open new markets.

EU Trade chief Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on Sept. 23 for the announcement, according to European Commission Spokesman Olof Gill. There will be a joint statement that the negotiation is substantially completed, spokeswoman for the Indonesian Trade Ministry, N.M. Kusuma Dewi said.

The agreement will need the approval of a majority of EU member states and the European Parliament as well as Indonesia’s legislature before it comes into force.

The EU has been accelerating efforts to clinch trade deals with countries around the world as it diversifies away from the US since President Donald Trump sought to reset transatlantic relations on American terms. European officials have intensified negotiations with some of the largest global economies, including India, and have concluded talks with the South American bloc of Mercosur, which includes Brazil and Argentina. The EU has also ramped up negotiations with Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

The conclusion of the negotiations with Indonesia followed the political agreement reached on the bilateral comprehensive agreement between the two sides in July.

Indonesia, South East Asia’s largest economy, is an important partner for the EU, with a rising economy of 300 million consumers and a potential source of raw materials. But the bilateral relationship has been strained over the EU’s deforestation regulation, which aims to combat the felling of trees abroad as a result of the bloc’s demand for key commodities, like palm oil and coffee. Indonesia has been one of the most vocal critics of the rules.

The Financial Times reported earlier about the conclusion of the negotiations.

 

Taiwan Agrees to Buy $1.3 Billion US Wheat in Next Three Years

Grain buyers in Taiwan have agreed to purchase 3.6 million tons of US wheat between 2026 and 2029, according to a letter of intent signed by the Taiwan Flour Millers Association and US Wheat Associates.

• Purchase commitment has estimated value of $1.296 billion
• Taiwan was fifth-biggest market for US wheat in previous season

 

Brazil judge’s ruling keeps soy moratorium in place

A Brazilian judge on Wednesday left in place a moratorium on trading in soy grown in recently deforested parts of the Amazon, according to a decision seen by Reuters, rejecting a request by a farmer group to reverse an injunction related to the ban.

The soy moratorium had been suspended by antitrust body CADE last month on suspicion of breaching competition law. A judge later granted an injunction on that decision, which was challenged by farmer group Aprosoja Mato Grosso.

The decision showed Judge Liviane Vasconcelos rejected the farmer group’s “request for reconsideration… since it was filed by a third party who is not a party to the proceedings.”

Aprosoja Mato Grosso did not have an immediate comment.

Brazil’s soy moratorium, is a two-decade-old private pact created to protect the Amazon rainforest by barring soybean traders from buying from farmers who cleared land there after July 2008.

Some 30 soy companies are signatories of the moratorium, including ADM ADM.N, Bunge BG.N, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus Co. and China’s Cofeco.

Challenges against the soy moratorium, which Brazilian farmers call an unfair agreement that keeps some out of the market, had escalated in the last few months.

After the CADE decision to probe the companies associated with it, Brazil’s Environment Ministry and federal prosecutors, who back and monitor the moratorium, have mounted a public defense of the program, setting the stage for a struggle over its fate and raising risks for global soy traders.

 

JBS Sees Tariff Hit on Brazil Beef as Temporary: Brazil Journal

Brazil is redirecting beef exports to other destinations, including Mexico and China, amid booming global demand for animal protein, Wesley Batista, one of the brothers who control the company, said in a video interview with Brazil Journal.

• US may consider dropping tariffs as importers raise concerns: Batista
• Re-rating of JBS shares will take time after recent US listing
• JBS sees M&A opportunities in value-added, convenience products in US, Europe
• Widespread GLP-1 drug use boosting protein demand in US

 

China Calls on Pig Breeders to Scale Back Production: Newspaper

China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium Tuesday with the country’s top pig breeders on measures to cut production, Chinese news outlet Shanghai Securities News reports citing unidentified people.

• Measures include lowering the number of pig slaughtered and controlling slaughter weight to around 120 kilograms, said a participant to the symposium
• Breeders were also asked to reduce the number of breeding sows in 2026 on yearly basis
• The meeting also discussed control the financing credit for pig production expansion and lower subsidies for the industry growth

 

U.S. wheat production projected to decrease in 2026/27 amid reduced area

2026/27 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 51.7 [49.1–54.3] MILLION TONS

Decreasing long-term area trends, low expected profitability, and strong competition from other crops set 2026/27 U.S. wheat production at 51.7 [49.1–54.3] million tons, down 1.5% from last season, despite favorable early season winter wheat sowing conditions, normal planting pace to date, and positive long-term weather outlooks. 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat planted area is projected at 33.01 million acres, down 1.1% from last season, as the downward trend continues amid tepid profitability potential. Spring wheat planted area is preliminarily pegged at 12.06 million acres (durum wheat at 2.13 million acres and other spring wheat at 9.93 million acres), fractionally (<1%) down from last season. Our trend yield for total wheat is initially set at 53.1 bushels per acre, up 1% from last season, leading to total winter wheat production of 1.90 [1.81–1.99] billion bushels.

U.S. winter wheat planted area has been on a strong downward trend since 2008, with the average annual rate of decrease during the period at -1.7%, despite a recent small surge in 2023. This season area should remain steady around, or slightly down from last season’s level, as any dramatic expansion or significant shrinkage looks unlikely. Wheat farmers’ expected return on investment remains lukewarm at best, with both prices and costs hovering largely on par with the same time last year despite a great deal of recent volatility. Spring wheat, in particular, is losing its share in the total crop area to other competing domestic summer crops, most notably corn. On the other hand, early season weather has been mostly favorable and is expected to remain positive through the winter crop’s dormancy this winter, limiting the downside. Our long-term weather outlook for December through February put together by the LSEG Weather Research team (08 September) indicates that the overall winterkill risks during the crop’s dormant period through February are estimated to be lower than last season, hinting a high yield potential. The current sowing pace remains normal at the national level, and with warm and dry weather continuing to provide farmers with decent early season planting conditions, the overall yield prospects look optimistic, despite reduced area compared to last season.

 

Early September dryness bodes well for Argentina wheat yield but rain may return

2025/26 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 19.8 [18.6–21.0] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina wheat production is unchanged at 19.8 [18.6–21.0] million tons, as early September dryness across the eastern Pampas gives a brief relief to the wet soils with the crop growth in full swing, though another round of rain may be on the way. In September’s WASDE (released on 12 September) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 19.5 million tons, down from its August forecast of 19.7 million tons. Dry weather finally arrived in the eastern half of the Pampas early September, which had suffered from excessive moisture since the beginning of the sowing season. The majority of the top producing provinces, including Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Entre Ríos (where combined more than 90% of the country’s total wheat is grown) received virtually no precipitation amid cool temperatures over the past 10 days, providing a much needed relief to the dry soils there. Unfortunately wetness is expected to return later this week, warranting attention. With the majority of the wheat crop already well into its prime growing season, the location and magnitude of precipitation, as well as the overall soil moisture status, should be monitored closely.

 

US May Use Tariff Revenue to Fund Farmer Support Program: FT

President Donald Trump’s administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in an interview with the Financial Times.

• “There may be circumstances under which we will be very seriously looking to and announcing a package soon,” Rollins said
• NOTE: The move comes as the US harvest gets underway; crop sales to China, a key market for soybeans in particular, remain largely stalled amid trade tensions

 

US farmers face ‘financial calamity’ without extra aid soon, Republican lawmakers say

• Republicans conflicted between loyalty to constituents or Trump
• Farmers worried about low crop prices and trade wars
• Near-record $40 billion in farm payments expected in 2025, USDA data shows

As U.S. farmers enter autumn harvest season worried that low crop prices and a trade war could hurt their livelihoods, Republican farm-state lawmakers are urging President Donald Trump’s administration to issue economic aid for farmers by year’s end.

Discussions between lawmakers and the administration highlight the trade-offs Republicans face between loyalty to the president and representing constituents who have contacted their offices and flocked to town halls in their districts, worried about the impact of Trump’s trade policies.

Four farm-state members of Congress told Reuters they are in talks with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other administration officials about an aid package, ideally by the end of December.

Republican Senator John Hoeven, who leads agriculture funding on the appropriations committee, said he is discussing with the administration an approach similar to that taken during Trump’s first term, when the federal government issued $23 billion in payments to farmers to offset losses from a trade war with China. He said emergency aid could also be added to a government spending bill.

Hoeven, of North Dakota, said farmers need assistance “the sooner, the better, but certainly by year-end.”

On Monday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she is working daily with Congress to evaluate how much aid might be needed this autumn, but did not specify a timeline or amount.

A USDA spokesperson said officials were “exploring the need for further assistance but have not made a determination if an additional program is needed at this time.” The spokesperson said Trump was supporting farmers by opening new international markets, lowering taxes and boosting farm supports in his tax-cut and spending bill.

“President Trump and Secretary Rollins are always in touch with the needs of our farmers, who played a crucial role in the President’s November victory,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in an email.

The email added that Trump’s inflation fight will “lower input costs” while trade deals “are opening new markets for America’s agriculture industry. We would not get ahead of the President on any support for pending legislation.”

 

 

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