Global Ag News For Oct 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine’s grain harvest 16% below last year as sunflower output hits eight-year low

Ukraine’s 2025 grain and oilseed harvest is running well behind last year’s levels, with yields sharply lower for key crops including sunflowers, reported Ukraine Business News.

By the end of last week, Ukrainian farmers had gathered more than 31.5mn tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, 16% less than during the same period in 2024. The harvest included 22.5mn tonnes of wheat, 5.3mn tonnes of barley, 626,600 tonnes of peas and 2.05mn tonnes of corn. Farmers also collected nearly 880,000 tonnes of other grains and pulses.

Oilseed crops showed mixed results, with 3.3mn tonnes of rapeseed, 2.2mn tonnes of soybeans and 5.5mn tonnes of sunflowers harvested so far. The ministry noted that Ukraine’s sunflower harvest – a key input for one of the country’s top exports, sunflower oil – is the weakest in eight years.

From July 2024 to June 2025, sunflower production was 20% lower year-on-year, the smallest yield since the 2016/17 marketing season. The area sown with sunflowers fell only slightly, by 2%, but average yields dropped 18%. As a result, sunflower oil exports have slumped by 24%, also reaching their lowest level since 2016/17.

Ukraine, which before the war accounted for nearly half of global sunflower oil exports, has struggled to restore its full production and export capacity due to the destruction of farmland, logistical challenges, and fluctuating weather conditions.

The ministry forecasts a modest recovery for the 2025/26 marketing year, with sunflower sowing areas expected to rise by 3.3% and total harvest volumes projected to increase by around 3%. Analysts say that while the expansion offers some relief, global prices for vegetable oils will likely remain sensitive to further disruptions in Ukraine’s agricultural output.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.38.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 13 1/4 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil up 0.66.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 18 1/4; Soymeal up $4.90; Soyoil up 0.94.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.8% in SRW, down 11.5% in HRW, down 6.1% in HRS; Corn is down 8.7%; Soybeans up 2.0%; Soymeal down 12.0%; Soyoil up 24.3%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were 7down 7 ringgit (-0.16%) at 4435.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 3 were: SRW Wheat down 899 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,418, Corn down 9,197, Soybeans down 993, Soymeal down 8,293, Soyoil up 4,403.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 OCT 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across much of the U.S. this week, with mixed temperatures in the 6–15-day outlook. Wet spells may delay spring crop harvests in parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Brazil is expected to see below-normal to cool conditions over the next 10 days, except in the Northeast, with a warmer trend across much of the country in days 11–15 and widespread wet spells. In Argentina, mixed temperatures are likely in Central and Northeast regions, while dry spells persist across the Pampas, with limited rainfall in western Pampas and the Northeast.
• EUROPE: Above-normal temperatures are expected across Europe this week, with a cooler trend in the 11–15-day outlook. Dry spells remain confined to the region.
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia are likely to see near-normal to cool conditions, with warmth confined to the East over the 15-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rain is expected in the East, while South and Southeast Asia will experience mixed rainfall.

 

A RELIEF FROM RAINS AHEAD FOR WHEAT IN ARGENTINA

What to Watch:

• Following this weekend’s rains, Argentina will see a dry stretch for 2–3 weeks, helping reduce excess moisture for wheat
• Warm and dry conditions will support early plantings in Central-South Brazil, while the southern areas will be cooler and wetter

 

Northern Plains: Heavy rain moved through portions of the region over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this coming weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant progress this week.

Central/Southern Plains: Some showers went through northern areas over the weekend as a cold front moved into the region. The front is likely to produce some areas of rain as it moves through early this week. We could see some showers later this week, but drier conditions are likely. A burst of cooler temperatures is moving through the region, but will again rise above normal midweek. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

Midwest: A front moved into western areas on Sunday, but most areas were hot and dry over the weekend, promoting fieldwork. The front will move through the region Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers that will distrupt the harvest. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region.

Delta: Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to promote harvest, but water levels are falling again on the Mississippi and other rivers in the region, which may impact transportation this fall. Some showers over the far south on Sunday will move north through the region as a front drives south through it Monday and Tuesday, bringing some nuisance showers that could be briefly disruptive to harvest. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive.

Brazil: A front produced rainfall in southern Brazil on Saturday, and another front is moving into the region for early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend.

Argentina: Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting will increase through the month of October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are pretty good thus far.

Europe: Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend and continue in some areas this week as well. A small disturbance may produce showers for Spain as well this week, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas later this week with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

Black Sea: Some showers moved through the region over the weekend, and extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region.

Australia: Showers moved through some areas over the weekend, mostly across the wetter west. Showers were spottier in the east. The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Systems may be more prominent this weekend and next week, though. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are fairing much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

 

The player sheet for 10/3 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 455,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender for shipment in December and January, the country’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Monday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 80,550 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

Malaysia’s September palm oil stocks set to fall for first time in seven months

• September stocks likely to fall 2.5% to 2.15 mln MT – poll
• Output forecast to decline 3.3% to 1.79 mln MT
• Exports projected to rise 7.7% to 1.43 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on October 10

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are poised to slip in September for the first time in seven months, as exports surged while production declined, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.

Palm oil inventories likely fell 2.5% to 2.15 million metric tons from August, according to a median estimate of ten traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters. MYPOMS-TPO

Crude palm oil output is projected to touch its lowest level since June at 1.79 million metric tons, declining 3.3% month-over-month in September and snapping a two-month rise. MYPOMP-CPOTT

These figures align closely with market expectations, keeping inventories marginally above the 2 million metric ton threshold, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari.

The decline in production for the fourth quarter is expected to be marginal, unless adverse weather conditions occur, Supramaniam added.

“Looking ahead, especially in November and December, demand will likely determine whether prices will be able to sustain at their current trajectory,” he said.

The benchmark palm oil contract was trading at 4,448 ringgit ($1,055.28) a metric ton on Friday. POI/

Exports of palm oil products are expected to climb 7.7% to 1.43 million metric tons, reaching the highest volumes in 10 months since November last year. MYPOME-PO

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on October 10.

 

Brazil farmers plant 9.15% of 2025 soybean area – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 9.15% OF 2025 SOYBEAN EXPECTED AREA VERSUS 2.31% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

Soybean planting in Mato Grosso reaches 15.03% of the estimated area, according to Imea

Soybean planting for the 2025/26 harvest in Mato Grosso reached 15.03% of the total area as of this Friday, according to a survey by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

The number was above the historical average for the period, of 6.10% of the planted area.

 

Russia Harvests 128m Tons of Grain, Sees Crop at 135m Tons: IFX

Russia has already harvested 128m tons of grain, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

Russia maintains 2025 harvest forecast at 135m tons

 

Russia to lower wheat export duty 20% to 493.4 rubles per tonne from Oct 8 – AgMin

The duty on Russian wheat exports will be lowered 20% to 493.4 rubles per tonne in the week from October 8, from 617.7 rubles at present, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The export duty for barley will remain at zero and it will be lowered to 348.9 rubles per tonne from 716.9 rubles per tonne for corn.

These duties are based on indicative prices of $225.8 per tonne for wheat, as in the previous period, $198.4 rubles per tonne versus $200.4 per tonne for barley, and $221.8 per tonne against $226 per tonne for corn.

The new rates will be in effect until October 14 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat is currently 18,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn is 17,875 rubles per tonne.

 

US soybean farmers, deserted by big buyer China, scramble for other importers

• China buys no soybeans from autumn US harvest
• Trade war makes US soy too costly for China buyers
• Alternative export markets are small in comparison

A trade mission to Nigeria. A memorandum of understanding with Vietnam. A surge of purchases from Bangladesh.

These countries are not typically major customers for soybeans from the U.S. farm belt. But desperate farmers, their trade organizations and President Donald Trump’s administration are turning to far corners of the world in hopes of averting a disaster for agriculture from a trade war that has kept China from purchasing U.S. supplies.

The efforts so far are failing to offset the loss of the country’s biggest customer for the crop, data and interviews show, with financial pain extending to tractor makers and other agricultural businesses.

For the first time in more than 20 years, Chinese importers have not yet bought soybeans from the autumn U.S. harvest, forcing farmers to store their crops on hopes that prices will eventually rise from around a five-year low. It is a risk that delays their ability to bring in money from crop sales at a time when they face rising costs for everything from labor and energy to fertilizer.

In a sign that hard times are expected to continue in rural America, Trump has promised to give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers, who largely supported his campaigns for president.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government would make an announcement on Tuesday about support for farmers.

Tit-for-tat tariffs that Washington and Beijing imposed on each other’s goods this year have made U.S. soybeans too expensive for Chinese buyers, leading importers to buy from South America instead.

But alternative markets for U.S. exports are tiny by comparison and have not replaced China, long the world’s biggest importer by far.

CRISIS ACUTE FOR ILLINOIS SOYBEAN FARMERS

The crisis is particularly acute in Illinois, the largest U.S. soybean producing and exporting state.

About 60 miles (97 km) west of Chicago, where the city and suburbs start to give way to green fields, farmer Ryan Frieders, 49, will be storing much of his beans in bins after previously selling some of his expected harvest at prices below the cost of production.

After months of work that included planting seeds, fertilizing fields and spraying weedkillers, Illinois growers on average are facing losses of up to $64 per acre this year, thanks in part to low crop prices and weak exports, according to University of Illinois estimates.

China purchased about 45% of all U.S. soybean exports last year – and usually secures about 40% of its annual U.S. soybean needs by early October, said Ted Seifried, chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge in Chicago.

U.S. soybean exports to China dropped 39% by volume to 5.9 million metric tons from January to July, before the autumn harvest began, the latest government data show. By value, shipments sank 51% to $2.5 billion, robbing farmers of billions of dollars’ worth of business.

The U.S. made a big increase in exports to Bangladesh at just over 400,000 tonnes, a fraction of China’s typical demand. Despite rising shipments to Vietnam, Egypt, Thailand and Malaysia, total U.S. soybean exports were down 8% by volume from the same period a year ago to 18.9 million tonnes.

Along with industry officials, Frieders, who farms in Waterman, Illinois, traveled to Turkey and Saudi Arabia in February to meet with buyers and visit processors on a trip sponsored by the U.S. Soybean Export Council trade group.

“There’s talk about India and expanding there, and Southeast Asia, and North Africa: those are markets of the future,” said Frieders, adding, “there isn’t this lost market that we haven’t looked at that could just suddenly explode and be a new China.”

 

Philippines Extends Rice Import Ban to End-2025: BusinessWorld

The Philippines will extend its rice import ban until the end of the year, BusinessWorld reports, citing Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel.

Government will implement a one-month rice import window in January next year and reimpose the halt from February to April, he was quoted as saying

 

 

 

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