Global Ag News for Oct 3.23

TOP HEADLINES

Mississippi Waters Dip Toward Record Low in Threat to US Exports

America’s crop exports are once again at risk due to a diminished Mississippi River.

Months of dry weather and the hottest summer ever shrunk the vital channel that funnels barges of grain and soybeans from the Midwestern crop belt to Gulf Coast ports. Barge operators now are running lighter loads to compensate for the lack of water. Prices paid to farmers for their crops are easing as a result, with seasonal pressure from the autumn harvest further weighing on the market.

Shipping costs for barges along the river surged in September, with spot rates rising as much as 64% in a week at Memphis, Tennessee, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Higher transport costs help make US crops more expensive than shipping out of countries such as Brazil — when bigger South American harvests were already taking market share from North America.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 12 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil down 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 40 3/4 in SRW, down 44 1/2 in HRW, down 47 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 27 3/4; Soymeal down $9.40; Soyoil down 1.69.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 12 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil down 0.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 30.8% in SRW, down 24.5% in HRW, down 23.2% in HRS; Corn is down 29.3%; Soybeans down 16.4%; Soymeal down 21.0%; Soyoil down 10.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 112; Palm oil up 134; Corn up 14 — Malaysian Palm is down 67. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 67 ringgit (-1.78%) at 3700.

China markets are close for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 741 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 299 Soymeal; 402 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 29 were: SRW Wheat up 12,407 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,286, Corn up 7,655, Soybeans up 8,271, Soymeal down 7,782, Soyoil down 3,695.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers developed with a front stalled in the area over the weekend. A system will form along the front with scattered showers through Wednesday. Much colder air will move through behind the system, but will only be temporary as a ridge brings in more warmth next week. Showers will cause some delays to harvest this week, but dryness that follows should allow equipment to roll shortly.

Central/Southern Plains: Outside of a few spotty showers, it was dry over the weekend, allowing harvest and winter wheat planting to run smoothly. A front will push through the region Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Afterward, cooler temperatures will move in, but will be temporary as temperatures rise next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well.

Midwest: Scattered showers went through northwest areas, but most areas saw heat and dryness building over the weekend, allowing for equipment to get out into the fields after last week’s rain. Another front will move through Tuesday night through Thursday night with widespread showers. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Dryness and warmth should return next week. Any delays due to rainfall are likely to be short again.

Delta: It was dry over the weekend, allowing for rapid harvest in the dry soils. A front will move through late this week but showers are forecast to be limited. Drought continues to build in the area.

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may continue to be isolated. A front will move into southern areas on Tuesday night and bring areas of heavy rain. That front will move into central areas for late in the week, enhancing showers there. Another burst of rain is forecast for southern Brazil this weekend, which may be heavy yet again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment.

Argentina: It was dry over the weekend and the region is in need of more rainfall. A front will move through on Tuesday, but showers are likely to be widely scattered and miss some of the important cropland that is in need. While planting conditions are good, establishment conditions are not. Dry weather that is forecast to follow for the next week is not favorable either.

The player sheet for Sept. 29 had funds: net sellers of 11,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 223,540 metric tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said. The wheat can be sourced from any worldwide origins except Israel. The deadline for submission of price offers is Oct. 11, they said.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,100 metric tons of rice largely from the United States.

TODAY

Brazil’s total corn production in 2023/24 seen at 135.71 mln tns – Safras

• BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH 2023/24 FIRST CORN CROP SEEN AT 26.86 MILLION TNS VERSUS 26.91 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• BRAZIL’S 2024 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 94.75 MILLION TNS VERSUS 96.45 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• BRAZIL’S TOTAL CORN PRODUCTION IN 2023/24 SEEN AT 135.71 MILLION TNS VERSUS 137.42 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

USDA August soybean crush estimated at 171.6 million bushels -analysts

The U.S. soybean crush likely dropped in August to an 11-month low of 5.149 million short tons, or 171.6 million bushels, according to the average forecast of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Monday, Oct. 2. However, the data will not be issued if Congress fails to pass a spending package before midnight on Saturday, triggering a partial U.S. government shutdown.

If the crush estimate is realized, it would be down from the 184.8 million bushels processed in July and the 175.1 million bushels crushed in August 2022.

Crush estimates ranged from 170.9 million bushels to 173.0 million bushels, with a median of 171.5 million bushels.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of Aug. 31 were estimated to have declined to 1.840 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

If realized, the stocks would be down from 2.149 billion pounds at the end of July and below stocks totaling 2.104 billion pounds at the end of August 2022. The stocks would also be the tightest since October 2019, according to USDA data.

Estimates ranged from 1.700 billion to 1.950 billion pounds, with a median of 1.850 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its members, which account for about 95% of the U.S. soybean crush, processed 161.453 million bushels of soybeans last month, an 11-month low. The total was down 6.8% from the 173.303 million bushels processed by NOPA members in July and 2.5% lower than their August 2022 crush of 165.538 million bushels.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of Aug. 30 thinned to 1.250 billion pounds, the lowest end-of-month oil stocks since October 2017.

Russian Grain Exports at 1.6 Times Last Season’s Volumes: IFX

Russia exported 17.7 million tons of grains so far this season as of Sept. 21, Interfax reported, citing data from Russia’s Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products.

• Export figure is 1.6 times more than last year; that’s based on issued phytosanitary certificates
• Wheat shipments so far this season amounted to 13.5 million tons
• Share of food-quality wheat in the 2023 Russian harvest was 72%, which is lower than last year, Interfax reported, citing comments from Russian agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor official Maria Shostak.
  • Share of feed wheat rose to 28% from 24% in 2022, Shostak said
• 0.4% of harvest did not meet government standards due to rains and difficult weather during harvest; this time last year there was no such wheat

Palm Oil May Gain on El Niño Risk and Biofuel Push, Mistry Says

• Prices seen between 3,700-4,500 ringgit from now and June 2024
• Palm oil imports by top buyer India may fall 7.8% in 2023-24

Palm oil may trade at higher levels last seen in 2022 over the next nine months on concerns over the impact of El Niño on output and more demand from biofuels, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

Prices are expected to trade between 3,700 and 4,500 ringgit ($789 and $960) a ton between now and June 2024, Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said at a conference in Mumbai. That compares with 3,767 ringgit on Friday.

“The trajectory of palm prices will depend on the severity or otherwise of the upcoming El Niño,” he said. The weather phenomenon typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Asia and can damage crops.

The bullish outlook follows a poor performance by the most-consumed cooking oil, which has slumped almost 10% this year on high stockpiles in the second-biggest producer Malaysia and patchy exports. Elevated costs may reduce the tropical oil’s appeal to price-sensitive buyers and boost food inflation in nations such as India, which imports about 60% of its edible oil needs.

Some other vegetable oils are also likely to stay strong, Mistry said at the Globoil conference on Friday. Soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade will continue to benefit from brisk US biodiesel demand, he said, adding that prices could trade around current levels until some pressure comes from crushing in South America. Sunflower oil has probably bottomed out, Mistry said.

“One reason for higher prices lies in a new push for more biodiesel or sustainable aviation fuel usage,” Mistry said.

Vegetable oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer, may fall 4.8% to 15.8 million tons in 2023-24, he said. Palm oil purchases are likely to drop by 7.8% to 9 million tons, while inbound shipments of soybean oil may decline 5.5% to 3.6 million.

Malaysia Must Find Alternative Palm Oil Markets to EU: MPOC

Malaysia needs to find alternative export markets for its palm oil and not just bank on Europe, as the new deforestation regulations may restrict purchases from the bloc, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• East and West Africa offers one of the biggest potential new markets, while Central Asia, Middle East and Southeast Asia should also be explored, CEO Belvinder Kaur Sron said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.
• India, palm’s biggest buyer, will support Malaysia as it agrees the EU rules are a trade impediment, Sron said
• There are immediate risks from stopping palm oil exports to EU; it will create an oversupply that may cause a sharp decline in prices
• EU imported 6.4m tons of palm oil in 2022, with 48% from Indonesia, 24% from Malaysia 20% from Latin America
• Bloc is third largest consumer of palm oil after Indonesia and India

Malaysian Palm Oil Production to Rise 1% Y/y in 2023, Says MPOA

Crude palm oil output in the world’s second-biggest producer may rise 1% y/y this year to 18.7 million tons, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, the country’s largest growers’ group.

• The weather has been “fairly good”, many plantation workers are back in estates, and East Malaysian production is coming on strongly, Chief Executive Joseph Tek said in a statement on Monday
• “However, the current recovery in production is also experiencing pain-points in tall-palm harvesting with aging age profile of the oil palm trees,” Tek said
  • There could also be a lagged impact from incomplete fertilization, which may translate to lower yields
• Tek said the MPOA is also seeking the following measures to be included in the Malaysian government budget that will be presented to lawmakers on Oct. 13:
  • Cut the windfall profit levy imposed on oil palm planters in East Malaysia to 1.5%, from 3% currently; revise the levy’s price threshold to 3,500 ringgit per ton of CPO for Peninsular Malaysia growers and to 4,000 ringgit for East Malaysia
  • Tax incentives to support large-scale replanting of old and unproductive trees in the private sector
  • Lift the freeze of foreign workers and increase recruitment quotas for the plantation sector
  • Facilitation and governance to commercialize biogas as a low carbon fuel
• NOTE: The MPOA will host the National Palm Oil Conference on Oct. 2-3 in Kuala Lumpur to discuss key issues in the plantation sector, including taxation policies, aging trees and replanting, worker recruitment and levies, and the EU Deforestation Regulation
• NOTE: The MPOA represents over 40% of the total oil palm planted area in Malaysia; members include major plantation companies Sime Darby Plantation, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IOI Corporation and FGV Holdings

Five more cargo ships head towards Ukrainian seaports to pick up grain – deputy PM

Five more cargo ships are heading towards Ukrainian Black Sea ports to pick up grain for export, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Sunday.

“Bulk carriers OLGA, IDA, DANNY BOY, FORZA DORIA, NEW LEGACY are going to export almost 120K tons of Ukrainian grain to Africa and Europe,” Kubrakov said on X social media app.

Strategie Grains raises EU rapeseed crop estimate, cuts sunseed

Strategie Grains has raised its estimate of this year’s rapeseed harvest in the European Union to 19.5 million metric tons from 18.9 million a month ago, the consultancy said in an oilseed report.

The increased estimate reflected better than expected harvests in Romania, Poland, the Baltic States and to a lesser extent Germany, Spain and Italy, it said.

The revised figure for the 2023 EU crop was in line with last year’s production.

Strategie Grains had reduced its rapeseed production outlook in previous months after disappointing harvest results in some EU states like France.

For sunflower seed, the consultancy cut its production forecast to 10.1 million tons from 10.3 million previously, with reductions for Bulgaria and Romania following hot weather in August outweighing upward revisions in France and Spain following good harvest results.

Forecast EU soybean production was raised to a record 2.9 million tons from 2.8 million previously, supported by an increased outlook for Italy, Strategie Grains said.

Argentina Sells 4.5m Tons in Soy FX Program, Leaving 3.9m Stocks

The latest round of a program that gives Argentine soy farmers a weaker FX rate has spurred 4.51m metric tons of trades to exporters through Sept. 28, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.

• NOTE: The round started on Sept. 5 and finishes on Sept. 30
  • Govt is considering an extension, La Nacion reported
• Of the 4.51m, new soy sales account for 3.06m tons
  • Farmers have completed transactions on delayed-price contracts for another 1.45m tons
• Agriculture traders listed ~1m tons on Argentina’s crop export register, mostly as unprocessed soybeans (85%) since crush margins are negative
• Crop exports in September are estimated to provide $1.7b to the central bank
• Soy stocks in Argentina now stand at 3.9m tons
  • Another 3.3m have been traded but left unpriced
  • NOTE: Supplies in 2022-23 were comprised of 20m tons of production, plus the previous season’s “carry”
• A similar FX program announced this week for oil and natural gas exports could provide the central bank with $440m/month: Rosario

Argentina to Extend Soy FX Program Through Oct. 20: Exporters

Economy Minister Sergio Massa has told soy processors and exporters that the government will extend the latest round of an FX program that gives farmers a weaker rate until Oct. 20, according to the Ciara-Cec crop export group.

• The program, which was set to expire on Sept. 30, will continue under the same conditions: Ciara-Cec
  • NOTE: This version of the so-called soy dollar program allows farmers to keep 25% of the value of their sales to exporters in hard currency to then exchange on parallel FX markets
• NOTE: Farmers have physical stocks of soybeans of 3.9m metric tons, plus another 3.3m tons that they’ve traded but for which they must still fix prices, according to the Rosario Board of Trade
  • Farmers won’t have more soybeans until they start harvesting the 2023-24 crop at end-March

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Irregular rainfall in BR and dollar appreciation raise domestic prices

Although the sowing of the 2023/24 soybean crop has begun amid optimism in Brazil, irregular rainfall – majorly in the central-western and southeastern regions – have slowed down the activities. This scenario added to the dollar appreciation against the Real have raised soybean prices this week, which limited the decrease in the monthly average in September.

Between September 21-28, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa soybean Index (Paranaguá) rose 2%, to BRL 145.37 (USD 28.86) per 60-kg bag on Thursday, 28. However, the monthly average (until the 28th) is 0.8% lower than that from August and 16.5% below that from Sept/22, in real terms (based on the IGP-DI from Aug/23). The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 2% too, closing at BRL 138.70 (USD 27.54)/bag on Thursday, 28. The monthly average of this Index is 0.4% lower than that in August and 18.7% lower in the annual comparison.

The US dollar rose 2.1% over the past seven days, to BRL 5.037 on Sept. 28th. This month, the average of the American currency is at BRL 4.94, the highest since May/23 but still 5.6% lower than that a year ago, in nominal terms.

CROPS – According to Embrapa, the fallowing period ended in Goiás on Sept. 24th. From Sept. 30th onwards, Minas Gerais, Bahia and part of Maranhão State will be allowed to sow soybean.

The farmers from Southern Brazil have been optimistic about the 2023/24 season because the recent rains have favored the soil conditions for sowing. In Santa Catarina, the fallowing period ended on Sept. 20th, and in Rio Grande do Sul, it ends on Sept. 30th. In Paraná, according to Deral/Seab, 16% of the state area has been sown with soybean, higher than the 9% in the same period last year.

In Mato Grosso, 1.8% of the estimated area has been sown, up from the 1.79% in the same period last season and also higher than the average (0.97%) of the last five years, according to Imea.

CORN/CEPEA: Farmers leave the market, and values resume rising

Although the harvest of the second crop of corn is practically over in Brazil – and despite the current higher supply –, prices have resumed rising this week. The boost came from the absence of many sellers from the market – these agents are aware of the warm international demand, corn valuations abroad and the dollar appreciation, which raise values at ports.

With this change in the behavior of sellers, Brazilian purchasers resumed reporting difficulties to buy corn batches. It is important to mention that some weeks ago, some farmers were willing to reduce asks because of the lack of room for storage and/or need for cash flow.

International corn valuations are linked to wheat price rises and the absence of sellers in the United States, who consider the current price levels too low. Also, the weather has been unfavorable to crops in the Northern Hemisphere. The US dollar has increased against, surpassing BRL 5 this week and closing at BRL 5.037 on Thursday, 28, 2.1% higher than that on Sept. 21st, helping to push up prices abroad.

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa for corn (Campinas, SP) rose 4.8% over the past seven days, to BRL 57.02 (USD 11.32) per 60-kg bag on Thursday – this Index has been rising for eight consecutive days. This month, it has increased 6.5%, and the monthly average is 2.1% higher than that from August.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices increased 2.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). In general, the market was warmer in the regions nearer to ports and/or with better logistics.

PORTS – Corn valuations at ports kept liquidity high in the last days. On Sept. 28th, prices closed at BRL 64.5/bag in Santos (SP) and at BRL 61.72/bag in Paranaguá (PR), 2.3% and 6.1% higher than on Sept. 21st. Some deals were closed at BRL 65/bag.

CROPS – On the one hand, the dry weather is favorable to the end of the second crop harvest, but on the other hand, it limits the progress of sowing the summer crop, concerning agents. By Sept. 24th, 98.2% of the second crop of corn had been harvested in Brazil, according to Conab. And of the summer crop, 18.3% had been sown.

Russia’s Wheat Export Tax to Rise to 4,565 Rubles/Ton: Interfax

Russia will increase its wheat export duty next week to 4,565 rubles ($46.85) a ton, from 4,528 rubles, Interfax reported, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

NOTE: The ministry sets the tax weekly based on data from export contracts that were registered a week before, according to a government decree

Resolution on US-Mexico corn dispute could come in March, Mexico says

A resolution could be reached in March on a trade dispute between the United States and Mexico over the Mexican government’s policy on genetically modified corn, Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro said on Friday.

Washington has called in a dispute panel to settle its disagreement over Mexico’s policy to phase out use of GM corn for human consumption, arguing this will hurt U.S. producers.

India to Cut Floor Price for Basmati Exports to Stay Competitive

• Minimum export price for basmati could be reduced to $850/ton
• Likely move is aimed at competing with nations like Pakistan

India, the world’s biggest rice exporter, is considering to cut the floor price for basmati shipments to make the premium variety attractive in the world market, according to people familiar with the matter.

The nation, which has curbed overseas sales of all grades of rice to control domestic food inflation, will reduce the minimum export price to $850 a ton from $1,200, said the people who asked not to be identified as the discussions are confidential. A decision on the issue will be taken soon, they said.

The government is looking at the proposal following pleas from the industry, which says that current price levels are making Indian shipments costlier than those from countries such as Pakistan, the people said. Basmati rice accounted for about 20% of India’s shipments in 2021-22.

A spokesperson, who represents both food and commerce ministries, declined to comment on the proposal.

The likely move may help Indian traders compete in the world market and bring down global prices of the variety, which is generally grown in the Indian subcontinent and commands a healthy premium because of its longer grain size and unique aroma. The possible measure is not expected to have an upward pressure on local rice prices as India traditionally exports most of its basmati.

Malaysia Oct. Palm Oil Exports 1.236m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were 1.236m tons in October, according to AmSpec Agri.

Palm oil exports rose 5.4% m/m

US Pork Production Up 3.1% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 539m pounds for the week ending Sept. 30 from 523m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 2.6% from a week ago to 2.604m head
• Beef production down 1.9% from a week ago, cattle slaughter falls 2.1%
• For the year, beef production is 5.2% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.2% above

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 197k tons in the week ending Sept. 23 from 130k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 52.3% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 50% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $52.91 per short ton, an increase of $14.56 from the previous week

Tampa Ammonia Price Rises 47.4%

U.S. ammonia prices, represented by spot prices for Tampa CFR Ammonia, rose 47.4% to $575 per metric ton in the week ended Sept. 29, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• Tampa Ammonia rose 94.9% during the last month and was up 69.1% during the last 3 months
• All major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices rose while Tampa Ammonia rose the most during the last week
• Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Nutrien Ltd. were up, while Yara International ASA was down in the latest week
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 2.2% during the last week and was down 3.9% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 1.2% during the last week and was down 0.8% during the last month

Urea Seeks Direction in Advance of Expected India Tender

The global urea market was unsettled in advance of another tender from India, with the last one securing fewer tons and at lower prices than anticipated. Higher prices are likely in the next tender, fueled by a surging ammonia market in the wake of Tampa’s $575-a-metric ton settlement for October, up sharply from September’s $390.

Ammonia Prices Surge; Urea, Phosphates, Potash Stable

Ammonia prices soared higher in late September, fueled by a $185-a-metric ton (mt) jump in the Tampa October price, to $575 mt cost-and-freight. New ammonia prices in the Corn Belt rose to $700-$725 a short ton (st), up from last week’s $650-$675. Prices in California and the Pacific Northwest climbed to $740 st delivered and $750-$775 st free-on-board (FOB), respectively, up sharply from the previous $580 and $600. New offers in Western Canada soared almost C$300 mt, to C$1,200 FOB and C$1,295 delivered.

The surging market also drove ammonia higher in Europe and the Middle East. Urea, by contrast, was down at New Orleans (NOLA) and flat internationally as the industry awaits India’s next tender call, which is expected by the end of next week. US potash and phosphate prices were stable at NOLA and inland.

Brazil Nitrogen Prices Decline Ahead of Next India Tender

After Brazil urea jumped $100 a metric ton at midmonth after India’s latest tender call, the market dropped this week when India booked fewer tons at prices that were lower than anticipated. Another tender is expected soon and could drive prices higher. Potash remains weak amid robust supplies, while phosphate prices were up on limited availability.

Brazil Urea, Potash Prices Fall, Phosphates Strengthen

Brazil urea fell an average of $8 a metric ton (mt) this week after the latest India tender booked fewer tons than expected, signaling plentiful supply for Brazil’s corn safrinha preparations. Another India tender is expected soon, and if price offers are higher, as anticipated, then Brazil’s urea market will also be pressured to increase. Urea demand is likely to accelerate by the end of soybean planting, and higher prices could delay purchases due to unfavorable barter ratios.

MAP prices in Brazil were up an average of $15 mt this week on limited supply, yet demand could taper off for the seasonal corn application. Potash prices remain weak amid ample supply and slow demand as buyers focus on planting.

 

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