Global Ag News For Oct 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canada’s Prime Minister Carney Says He Expects to Meet Xi at APEC Summit

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday he expects to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

He told reporters in Malaysia that he expects the talks to focus on the trading relationship between Canada and China, and the upheaval in the global economic backdrop.

“It’s the start of a broader discussion,” Carney said. “We’re in the process of resetting expectations, of where the relationship can go.”

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Ottawa did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Carney’s scheduled bilateral meeting with Xi comes as President Trump ordered the end of trade talks between Canada and the U.S. related to tariff relief on sectors such as steel and aluminum. Trump cited an ad campaign in the U.S., led by the Canadian province of Ontario, that the President said misrepresented comments by former President Ronald Reagan. Trump added he would impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports.

Carney has tried to reset ties with China, following the country’s testy relations with Beijing under Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, stemming from Canada’s role in helping the U.S. arrest a senior Huawei Technologies executive in 2018. Meanwhile, Carney and other senior officials are trying to persuade China to drop hefty tariffs on imports of canola, or rapeseed, from Canada. Canada’s Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald is in China this week to deal with agricultural trade issues. China is the largest foreign market for Canadian growers of canola-seed, which is used in the production of vegetable oil and animal feed.

Canadian canola growers say the tariff, or about 76%, essentially shuts them out of the Chinese market.

In an interview this month with Canada’s CTV News, China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, said Beijing was willing to ditch its canola tariffs in exchange for Canada removes certain tariffs on Chinese products — most notably, a 100% levy on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Canada imposed that 100% EV tariff to align its China policy with the U.S. under former President Joe Biden.

China is “one of the most influential actors in terms of the global system,” Carney said, “and with whom we had no senior level contact for seven years… We’re starting from a very low base, and we can move quite substantially before we start to get to sensitive areas.”

Over the weekend, top U.S. and Chinese officials signaled optimism on trade talks as Xi is also scheduled to meet Trump this week.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 1/2 in SRW, up 16 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 36 1/4; Soymeal up $7.80; Soyoil up 0.31.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 29 3/4 in SRW, up 32 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans up 48; Soymeal up $15.00; Soyoil down 0.07.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 22 in SRW, up 20 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 15 1/2; Soybeans up 76 1/4; Soymeal up $28.60; Soyoil up 1.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.9% in SRW, down 7.4% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.0%; Soybeans up 8.0%; Soymeal down 1.9%; Soyoil up 27.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 32; Soyoil down 22; Palm oil down 100; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 58.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 58 ringgit (-1.33%) at 4315.

There were changes in registrations (-126 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 493 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 27 were: SRW Wheat down 6,206 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,837, Corn down 18,963, Soybeans down 17,372, Soymeal down 13,154, Soyoil up 2,623.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 OCTOBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A moderately cold week over most major U.S. crop regions will feature widespread frost risks to crops before a warming trend emerges next week
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather will dominate over Argentina through the next couple weeks, introducing downside risks to wheat development
• EAST ASIA: Generally warm and dry weather in China through the next 1-2 weeks will facilitate corn/soybean harvest progress
• SOUTH ASIA: Tropical Storm Montha will help to bring heavy rains and flooding risks to central India this week, slowing wheat plantings
• TROPICS: Major Hurricane Melissa will hit Jamaica over the next day at Category 5 intensity, bringing catastrophic wind/flooding damage to the island

A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE IN BRAZIL WILL INTRODUCE FLOODING RISKS IN EARLY NOVEMBER

What to Watch:

• After a cool week, Argentina will slowly warm into mid-November while remaining dry, which will start to present downside risks to any remaining wheat development
• Upcoming Brazil rains will benefit coffee development, while slowing corn/soybean plantings in the South region
• Cool/dry weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, speeding corn/soybean plantings

Northern Plains: It was quiet over the weekend. However, a system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the cross-hairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought heavy rain to parts of the region over the weekend. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. A front will move through Monday and Tuesday with some areas of showers, but the region should trend drier going into early November.

Midwest: A system skirted by the southern end of the region with some showers over the weekend. The Missouri Bootheel into far southern Illinois ended up with the heaviest rainfall amounts. A front and attached system will move through early this week with scattered showers for western and southern areas, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should cause some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork.

Delta: A system went through over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River, but should improve the drought in the region.

Brazil: A front moved into southern areas over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil this week and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth. Another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

Argentina: A front brought some areas of heavy rain to the country late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast early this week, but another front is forecast to bring through some widespread rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler.

 

The player sheet for 10/27 had funds: net buyers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 20,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer also issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 73% Complete, Soybeans 84%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 73% complete in the week ending Oct. 26, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 14 analysts.

• This compares to 81% complete last year at this time
• Soybean harvest seen at 84% complete vs 89% complete last season
• The USDA has suspended publication of its weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report due to the federal government shutdown

 

US Inspected 1.188m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.061m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 23, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,061k tons vs 1,590k the previous wk, 2,631k a yr ago
• Wheat: 259k tons vs 493k the previous wk, 295k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,188k tons vs 1,325k the previous wk, 860k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 23

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 23 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 155k tons of the 1.06m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Korea Rep led in wheat

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 36% Completed as of Oct. 23: AgRural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop reached 36% of the estimated area as of Oct. 23, compared with 24% a week earlier and matching the same level a year ago, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Weather was generally favorable for fieldwork last week
• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region was 55% completed as of Oct. 23, up from 51% a week earlier and 53% a year ago

 

Argentina Farmers to Ask Milei for Tax Cuts After Midterm Win

The Argentine Rural Society, one of the country’s most influential farmers groups, said in a statement it wants to take up President Javier Milei on his post-election call for cross-party dialogue.

• “We will put forward our federal agenda, which aims to restore competitiveness to the agricultural sector”: statement
• “It is of vital importance to reduce the tax burden and the so-called costo argentino,” or Argentine cost of doing business

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association Raises 2025 Production Outlook

The association known as Gapki raises the production outlook to 56m tons this year, higher than previous estimate of 54m tons, due to favorable weather.

• Good palm oil prices encourage farmers to take better care of their plantations, including by using more fertilizer, which helps increase production, Gapki Secretary General M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono tells reporters in Jakarta on Tuesday
• Palm oil exports seen rising to 30m-31m tons this year
• Association plans to introduce new pollinating insects in 2H 2026 to boost output in 2027
• Indonesia’s palm oil output could rise 5% or reach about 57m tons in 2026

 

Indonesia Aug. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 3.473m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 3.473m tons in August from 3.537m tons in July, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 5.542m tons from 5.606m tons in July
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.543m tons from 2.568m tons in July
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 2.100m tons from 2.034m tons in July
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 1.111m tons from 1.051m tons in July

 

Indonesia Mulls Palm Oil DMO for 50% Biodiesel Program: Kontan

Government is considering imposing a domestic market obligation on palm oil in implementing its B50 biodiesel program, news outlet Kontan reports, citing Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia.

• DMO policy, which requires producers to sell a portion of their output to the local market, is one of three options being considered to balance palm oil exports with domestic needs, he was quoted as saying
  • The other options are either to raise output or expand plantation sizes

 

Indonesia’s palm oil stock drops by 1% in August

Indonesia’s palm oil stocks dropped slightly in August to 2.54 million metric tons, 1% lower than a month earlier, with falling output offsetting a decline in exports, Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI said on Tuesday.

Indonesia exported 3.47 million metric tons of palm oil product in August, a 1.8% decrease from the previous month, while crude palm oil production stood at 5.06 million metric tons.

 

Malaysia-US Trade Deal Boosts Market Access for Palm Oil: MPOC

Tariff exemptions for selected products under the newly concluded trade deal between President Donald Trump and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will further strengthen market access for Malaysia’s palm oil, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• “The zero-tariff for Malaysian palm oil is a positive development,” the council’s CEO Belvinder Sron said in a statement Tuesday. “Our exports to the United States have recorded strong growth over the past two years, and this measure will further strengthen Malaysia’s competitive position in a high-value and rapidly evolving market.”
• NOTE: Trump and Anwar signed a trade agreement and critical minerals pact on Sunday. About 12% of Malaysia’s exports to the US worth $5.2 billion will be exempted from tariffs, including exports of palm oil, cocoa and pharmaceuticals
• Deeper commercial connection with the US will benefit both industry players and the Malaysian economy, particularly through technology integration and expansion of the downstream sector, said Sron
• Certified palm oil and palm stearin account for 79% of Malaysia’s exports to the US, which are used in industries ranging from specialty food ingredients to personal care products

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Despite high soil moist in Paraná, values remain moving down

The wheat harvesting continues delayed in the South, especially in Paraná, since activities have been constantly interrupted by the rainfall. The high humidity keeps producers concerned.

In spite of that, wheat prices continue to move down, influenced by the high competitiveness of the imported product. Besides the fact that dollar quotations are at BRL 5.30 and that the global crop may hit a record, ending stocks are high, keeping the current supply also high, leading to a small margin for price rises.

According to data from Seab/Deral, 77% of crops had been harvested until October 20. In Rio Grande do Sul, activities reached 10% of the total – Emater/RS. In Brazil, Conab indicates that 37.8% of the area (2025 crop) had been harvested.

According to data from Cepea, between October 17 and 24, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved down 0.55% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2.13% in Paraná and 1.3% in Santa Catarina, while they upped 1.36% in São Paulo. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased 0.25% in Paraná, 2.55% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.35% in SC. The US dollar dropped 0.26% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.392 on October 24.

IMPORTS – Brazil imported 283.92 thousand tons up to the third week of October, 49% less than in October/24.

 

EU Cuts Corn Yield Est.; Winter-Grain Planting Favorable: MARS

The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit trimmed its estimates for corn and sunflower yields this year, it said in a report on Monday.

• It raised its outlook for sugar-beet yields
• The new grain and oilseed outlooks follow last month’s yield cuts, when crops were affected by drought and heat waves
• Mostly near or above-average summer crop yields are expected at a continent-wide level
• For winter-grain plantings, the campaign is progressing under generally favorable conditions in most of western and central Europe
  • Still, excessive wetness in parts of Bulgaria and Romania delayed sowing
  • In Portugal, Spain and parts of eastern Croatia and Hungary, winter-crop planting has been delayed due to dry soil
  • “Uniform crop emergence in these regions will require rainfall arriving soon that, indeed, is likely to occur in the coming weeks”

 

Genco CEO Says China Soybean Plans Are Key for Dry-Bulk Trade

Dry-bulk shippers are watching to see when Beijing will resume purchases of US soybeans amid China-US trade talks, said Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Chief Executive Officer John C. Wobensmith.

“It seems like no doubt there will be a deal on the soybean front,” Wobensmith said on Bloomberg Television. “The question is, do they buy soybeans this year or do they push it off until next year because of the stockpiling done.”

Trade negotiators from China and the US announced Sunday that they’d struck a slew of agreements, including the resumption of some soy purchases, but key disagreements remain ahead of Donald Trump’s meeting this week with Xi Jinping.

Genco has so far been passing on to consumers additional tax costs incurred due to the trade war, Wobensmith said.

 

Argentina raises biodiesel prices for domestic market

Argentina’s government has raised the price of biodiesel for its mandatory blending with diesel in the domestic market, a decree published in the official gazette showed on Monday.

The Energy Secretariat set the minimum purchase price for biodiesel at 1,590,832 pesos ($1,066.2) per metric ton, up from a previous price of 1,508,704 pesos.

Argentina is a major producer of biofuels, particularly biodiesel, and regularly raises prices for the domestic market.

The new prices take effect from the date of their publication in the official gazette, the government said.

 

Zimbabwe Seeks Export Market for Surplus Wheat After Bumper Crop

“Zimbabwe is currently seeking exports markets for its wheat, in the region and beyond” after reporting a record harvest, Agricultural Minister Anxious Masuka says.

• Wheat production during the current season reached 578,059 metric tons, harvested from 110,543 hectares, government says in statement
• NOTE: Zimbabwe’s annual wheat requirement estimated at 360,000 metric tons
• Says an additional 12,023 hectares planted should be harvested next month

 

Monsoon promise turns sour for India’s crops ruined by late downpours

• Late rains damage mature crops, threaten farmers’ livelihoods
• Crop losses may halve agricultural growth in December quarter
• Farmers forced to sell damaged crops below minimum support price

Indian farmers’ hopes for bumper crops following this year’s abundant monsoon rains were dashed by heavy downpours just before harvest that damaged their fields, crushing the dreams of millions who rely solely on agriculture for their livelihoods.

The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers’ debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.

“We had hoped to harvest 10 to 12 quintals of soybean per acre, but now we’ll be lucky to get 2 to 3 quintals — and even that will require significant additional expenses,” said farmer Kishore Hangargekar, using a unit equivalent to 100 kg (220 lb).

He was speaking after two days of unrelenting rain flooded his fields and submerged his crops in the district of Dharashiv in the western state of Maharashtra.

Until then, the soybean crop had been thriving, and farmers were readying for harvest.

The reduction in yields from excessive rainfall is likely to halve agricultural growth to 3% to 3.5% in the December quarter, down from 6.6% a year earlier, said Garima Kapoor, economist at Mumbai-based Elara Securities.

Summer-sown crops such as soybean, cotton, rice, pulses and vegetables mature from September, a month that saw rains of 15% above average this year, with some regions getting as much as 115% more than normal.

While agriculture contributes just 18% to India’s economy of nearly $4 trillion, almost half its population of 1.4 billion relies on farming to earn a living.

 

 

 

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