Global Ag News For Oct 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

France raises bird flu alert level to ‘high’ after new cases

France has raised its bird flu alert level to “high” following the recent emergency of new cases of the disease, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a decree on its official journal.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 14 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 34 1/2; Soymeal up $12.70; Soyoil up 1.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.6% in SRW, down 12.5% in HRW, down 7.9% in HRS; Corn is down 7.6%; Soybeans up 3.8%; Soymeal down 6.8%; Soyoil up 28.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 18 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 8; Palm oil down 48; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 5.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 5 ringgit (-0.11%) at 4508.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 20 were: SRW Wheat up 529 contracts, HRW Wheat down 47, Corn down 3,228, Soybeans up 2,613, Soymeal down 4,836, Soyoil up 5,297.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 21 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A major and persisting wet spell in the next week across the U.S. Midwest could naturally close the main spring crop harvest window
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions in October have helped to reduce excessive moisture across the major wheat areas of the Argentinian Pampas
• EUROPE: Our LSEG seasonal forecast suggests high probability of snowy and colder than normal winter across many areas of Europe
• ASIA: Heavy rains are expected across many areas of Asia over the next 10-15 days, with the elevated risk of flooding in India and Vietnam
• TROPICS: Tropical Strom Fengshen will make landfall in Central Vietnam on 22 October, but the main rainfall activity is likely to miss key coffee regions

 

WET SPELLS PERSIST IN THE PAMPAS; DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL’S CROP REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in Central and Northeast Argentina
• Dry spells in South, Center West Brazil

 

COMMODITIES IMPACT WEATHER – DTN

MIDWEST: A front moved through the Midwest over the weekend and brought widespread areas of moderate to heavy rain. Another little system will move through the front half of the week with more isolated and lighter showers. Southern areas may get some showers later this week as well. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS: A front brought scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain to the southeastern Plains on Friday and Saturday. Though a system is moving through to the north on Monday, the region should be drier for the next few days. But a compact system is forecast to move into the region Thursday and Friday with perhaps some heavy rain. Producers should be able to pick up on fieldwork this week, and winter wheat producers should find some beneficial rain to finish out the week.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Scattered showers fell in the Northern Plains over the weekend as one system left and another moved in. Showers should last into Tuesday before leaving. Recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. Drier weather later this week should be more beneficial.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER/DELTA: A front moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain not only in the Delta region, but also in the Midwest, which will help to boost water levels on the Mississippi River. However, the boost is not forecast to be all that impressive or last long with low water levels currently causing issues for transportation.

BRAZIL: A front moved through the bulk of Brazil with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. The front is forecast to move north Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather behind this front will keep most areas dry for much of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil early next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA: A front moved north out of Argentina this weekend. Cool, dry air filled in behind it, but frosts were generally not observed. Another front will return to southern areas late Tuesday and only slowly move north and spread showers through the country the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or two and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

EUROPE: A system moved into western Europe on Sunday and will send waves of showers eastward through the continent throughout the week. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

BLACK SEA REGION: A system brought scattered showers to the Black Sea region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer with how dry it is, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

AUSTRALIA: Isolated showers fell in some parts of Australia this weekend, but the trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A couple of systems will move through this week with scattered showers. But they may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

CHINA: Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. However, frosts have not been an issue just yet. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

 

The player sheet for 10/20 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 157,717 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the U.S.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korean import consortium Major Feedmill Group/Cargill Agri Purina has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 59% Complete, Soybeans 74%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 59% complete in the week ending Oct. 19, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 14 analysts.

• This compares to 65% complete last year at this time
• Soybean harvest seen at 74% complete vs 81% complete last season
• The USDA has suspended publication of its weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report due to the federal government shutdown

 

US Inspected 1.318m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.474m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 16, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,474k tons vs 1,017k the previous wk, 2,550k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,318k tons vs 1,210k the previous wk, 1,001k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 16

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 16 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 221k tons of the 1.47m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 24% Done as of Oct. 16: AgRural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop reached 24% of the estimated area as of Oct. 16, which compares with 14% a week earlier and 18% same time last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Pace is below the 30% recorded two years earlier, AgRural said
• Timely rains boosted fieldwork across the Center-West region, where the planted area doubled in a week
• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region is 51% completed, vs 45% a week earlier and 48% a year ago

 

Ukraine winter sowing 74% complete, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.8 million hectares of winter crops for the 2026 harvest as of October 21, equating to about 74% of the expected area, the economy ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry has said that farmers planned to increase the 2026 winter grain sowing area to at least 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 million hectares in 2025.

 

Indonesia Sept. Palm Oil Exports Fall 39.3% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 39.3% m/m in September, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 1.573m tons from 2.592m tons in August
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 66,210 tons from 319,901 tons in August
• RBD palm olein shipments fell to 592,377 tons from 1.011m tons in August
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 342,826 tons from 435,706 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 237,125 tons from 281,434 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 316,119 tons from 751,046 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to China fell to 307,340 tons from 491,531 tons in August

 

Brazil may miss March 2026 deadline to raise biodiesel blend to 16%

Brazil may be unable to raise the mandatory biodiesel blend in diesel from 15% to 16% by the government’s set deadline of March 2026, an official from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy said.

Marlon Arraes, director of Biofuels at the ministry, stated during an industry event in São Paulo that there may not be sufficient time for the government to complete the necessary studies to implement the measure, Reuters reported.

“It’s possible that we won’t be able to meet the March deadline. It’s highly challenging,” Arraes said, adding that the government has yet to finalise a report required to introduce the next phase of the policy.

Brazilian law stipulates a gradual increase in the biodiesel blend of one percentage point per year, potentially reaching 20% by 2030. The official declined to provide a timeline for the introduction of the 16% mandatory blend.

A potential postponement of the deadline would primarily affect the soybean oil industry, as the oilseed is used to produce more than 75% of Brazil’s biodiesel.

The 15% blend, which was originally due to become mandatory in March this year, was only implemented in August, with the government citing inflation concerns.

 

EU to Propose Six-Month Leeway to Comply With Deforestation Law

The European Union will propose granting companies six months of leeway to comply with its landmark law to curb deforestation across the world, rejecting a longer delay despite industry complaints.

On Tuesday, the European Commission will propose giving companies six months of relief from sanctions after the law goes into effect at the end of the year, according to people familiar with the matter. It marks a rollback of plans announced last month to delay implementing the rules by a year.

In addition, the bloc will simplify regulations to loosen obligations on smallholder farmers, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter isn’t yet public. Both parliament and member states will need to sign off on the changes.

The move will provide some relief to environmental activists who feared a long delay would perpetuate high rates of deforestation across much of the world. The EU law targets the felling of trees associated with imports into the bloc of products such as soy, beef and palm oil.

The commission will also propose loosening obligations on companies tracking deforestation in the value chain.

EU Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall last month announced she would pursue a delay, saying that an IT system for companies to comply with the law was unable to cope with the number of requests. Yet she has faced push-back in the commission for going too far.

A number of EU nations have also been critical of the law, saying that it was overly-bureaucratic and punitive on the region’s farmers.

 

Trump’s Argentina Beef Plan Risks Rancher Ire, Little Relief

President Donald Trump vowed to boost beef imports from Argentina as the US faces soaring meat prices. But any increases may offer little relief to consumers — and risk angering American ranchers.

Trump said on Sunday that buying more meat from Argentina would “bring our beef prices down” while also aiding the struggling South American ally. That’s even as he suggested that an agreement wouldn’t be for a significant amount of shipments, with Argentina currently accounting for only a small share of US beef imports.

“If we buy some beef now — I’m not talking about that much — from Argentina, it would help Argentina, which we consider a very good country, a very good ally,” Trump said on Air Force One. The president signaled last week that his administration had struck an agreement to bring down the price of beef, without specifically mentioning Argentina.

The prospect of a deal with Argentina met with a mixed reaction, with ranchers criticizing the move while the meat industry welcomed the prospect of additional shipments.

“More imports from Argentina will benefit the global packers without helping consumers,” Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of cattle producer group R-CALF USA, said by email. “Excessive imports have displaced domestic production and domestic cattle.”

US beef prices have skyrocketed to record levels, challenging Trump’s promise to make groceries more affordable. Booming imports have fallen short of offsetting a severe domestic cattle shortage. An additional 40% tariff on imported goods from Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, is tightening supplies further.

“Tight cattle supply and strong demand for beef have created record cattle prices and high prices for consumers, driven in part by the smallest U.S. cattle herd in more than 70 years,” said Julie Anna Potts, CEO of Meat Institute, which represents the meatpacking industry. “We appreciate the president’s concern and willingness to take action to ensure Americans continue to have access to the most affordable beef in the world.”

Argentina supplies about 2% of US beef imports, well behind countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and New Zealand, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Its shipments of about 33,000 metric tons of beef to the US between January and July pales in comparison to Brazil’s 367,000 metric tons over the same period. The bulk of Argentina’s beef exports are sent to China.

The US buys Argentinian beef under a tariff-rate quota of 20,000 metric tons a year, with imports above that threshold facing a 26.4% tariff. It was during Trump’s first term that Argentina was able to rekindle beef exports to the US after a nearly two-decade hiatus.

Trump’s plan comes amid the US’s $20 billion rescue of Argentina, where a collapsing currency is threatening support to libertarian President Javier Milei ahead of midterm elections. The aid has drawn criticism from US farm groups, coinciding with a tariff pause by Milei’s government that spurred a surge in Argentine soybean exports to China — at a time when the Asian nation has banned purchases of US soy.

“President Trump’s plan to buy beef from Argentina is a betrayal of the American rancher,” Christian Lovell, senior director of programs for agricultural watchdog Farm Action, said in an emailed statement. “After crashing the soybean market and gifting Argentina our largest export buyer, he’s now poised to do the same to the cattle market.”

Mario Ravettino, head of the Consortium of Argentine Meat Exporters, said there was nothing set in stone for now, declining to add further details.

In Argentina itself, beef consumption has slumped in recent years as the country has grappled with economic crises, forcing families to seek cheaper meat options like pork and chicken. Nevertheless, per capita red meat-eating is still easily the highest in the world alongside neighbor Uruguay.

 

Maersk tests Brazilian ethanol mix to make cleaner maritime fuel

Danish shipping company Maersk is testing a blend of Brazilian ethanol with methanol and marine diesel – known as “bunker” – for its vessel engines as part of its efforts to further decarbonize operations, the company announced on Monday.

 

 

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