Global Ag News for Oct 14

TODAY—LAST TRADING DAY FOR OCT SOYMEAL, SOYOIL

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans up 1;  Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil down 15 points. Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 2 yuan in soybeans, up 19 in Corn, down 10 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and up 8 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 9 ringgit at 2,994 (basis December) at midsession on position-evening.

U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has differences with the models again; the GFS has mostly light amounts of rainfall in the northern regions of the Midwest while; the European sees rains for much of the Midwest with snow hitting the northern regions of the growing areas. Temps will be falling to below average. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period has the models mixed with the GFS showing little to no rainfall while, the European has an increase of precip for the region.

South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period has widespread rains with 80% coverage. The Argentine growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period has moderate rainfall over 90% of the region.

The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; bought 8,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 29,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 164,000 Corn; net long 236,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 84,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,000; Corn up 6,800; Soybeans up 11,500 contracts; Soymeal up 1,900 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,600.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal and ZERO Soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 361; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—Algeria bought 510,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 65,000t Brazil corn—South Korea bought 60,000t S. American corn—Thailand seeks up to 70,000t optional-origin feed wheat-

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had:

—Wheat exports running 10% ahead of a year ago (10% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year

—Corn 72% ahead of a year ago (up 81% last week) with the USDA up 32% for the season

—Soybeans are up 76% on the year (up 57% last week) with the USDA having a 26% increase forecasted on the year

U.S. soybean crushings likely dropped in September to the lowest monthly level in a year, while soyoil stocks fell to a 13-month low, according to analysts polled ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Thursday.

NOPA members likely crushed 160.795 million bushels of soybeans last month; if the average estimate is realized, it would be down 2.6% from the 165.055 million bushels crushed in August but up 5.4% from the September 2019 crush of 152.566 million bushels. It would also be the largest September crush on record, just ahead of the month’s biggest-ever crush, 160.779 million bushels, set in September 2018

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of September were seen dropping to 1.412 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from seven analysts, down from 1.519 billion pounds at the end of August and the 1.442 billion pounds at the end of September 2019; if realized, the stocks figure would reflect the smallest end-of-month soyoil supply since August 2019; estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.250 billion to 1.525 billion pounds, with a median estimate of 1.430 billion.

Manitoba crop report: Harvest completion sits at 95%, well ahead the three-year average of 79% at this time.

China’s corn futures hit a new record high on Wednesday as investors bet on higher prices for the grain because of crop damage from typhoons this year and due to Beijing’s efforts in years past to whittle down its once-mammoth state reserves; delivery in January hit 2,566 yuan ($380.70) per ton, the highest on record.

China today expressed its commitment to purchase 1.7 million tons of palm oil from Malaysia until 2023.

Rains that were forecast to blanket a wide portion of Brazil starting on Oct. 10 have arrived in a patchy fashion and will not be sufficient for the nation’s 2020/21 soy planting cycle to advance considerably

Argentina’s Federation of Oilseeds Workers started an open-ended wage strike at 2 p.m. (1700 GMT) on Tuesday, the labor group said, with no sign yet of government intervention that would force members back to work while new contract talks are held.

Ukraine has harvested 44.1 million tons of grain from 11.7 million hectares, or 76 percent of the sown area, Ukraine’s economy ministry said; it said farmers had completed the wheat and barley harvest and collected 8.4 million tons of corn from 1.8 million hectares, or 33% of fields planted with this crop; Ukraine started the corn harvest in mid-September.

Indonesia’s consumption of unblended biodiesel made from palm oil was 6.17 million kilo litres (KL) in January-September, the director of bioenergy at the energy ministry said; Indonesia, through its biodiesel mandate known as B30, aims to consume, 9.6 million KL on unblended biodiesel in 2020.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now