Global Ag News For Oct 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s September soybean imports reach near-record as US trade war drags on

China’s soybean imports in September reached the second-highest level on record, a Reuters calculation of customs data released on Monday showed, driven by strong purchases from South America as trade tensions with Washington curbed purchases from the U.S.

The world’s top soybean buyer brought in 12.87 million metric tons in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 million tons a year earlier.

September also marked another month this year in which China’s soybean imports have hit record highs, following May, June, July and August.

China’s imports in the first nine months of 2025 totalled 86.18 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year, the Customs data showed.

“China’s soybean supply outlook has become increasingly secure, supported by strong imports from January to September, a surge in purchases from Argentina during its temporary tax holiday, and continued heavy buying from Brazil,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

September imports were up 4.8% from August, the data showed.

Most of last month’s soybean imports are expected to have come from Brazil, the world’s top exporter. Data from Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec showed that China imported 6.5 million tons in September, representing 93% of Brazil’s total soybean exports.

Late last month, Beijing secured a significant volume of Argentine soybeans, most scheduled for shipment later this year, sidelining U.S. farmers during their critical marketing season.

China has not purchased any U.S. soybean cargoes from this autumn’s harvest. Without a deal in place, U.S. exporters stand to lose billions as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America.

Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped to discuss soybeans with President Xi during their upcoming meeting in South Korea, but later cast doubt on whether it would happen, dimming hopes for renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.

“China’s soybean supply still faces some risks, such as how China-U.S. trade talks go, possible production problems in South America caused by this year’s weak La Niña weather, and changes in demand for soybean meal in China,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

“These factors are likely to keep affecting soybean imports.”

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $1.70; Soyoil down 0.45.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 14 1/2 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 0.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.8% in SRW, down 13.6% in HRW, down 7.3% in HRS; Corn is down 9.9%; Soybeans up 1.0%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil up 24.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 10 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 112; Corn down 24 — Malaysian Palm is down 48.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 48 ringgit (-1.06%) at 4496.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 10 were: SRW Wheat up 14,668 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,539, Corn up 22,267, Soybeans up 1,026, Soymeal up 4,158, Soyoil up 6,363.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 OCT 2025

Northern Plains: Scattered showers, some areas of heavier rain, and a touch of snow in Montana were all recorded over the weekend. Additional rain will move through Tuesday through Thursday and maybe Friday as a pair of systems continue to move along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slow. Cooler temperatures are also producing frosts and freezes, common for this time of year.

Central/Southern Plains: A few showers went through over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A front has stalled in the region though and will be active as systems move along it throughout the week. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too.

Midwest: It was mostly dry over the weekend, though a few showers fell in Minnesota on Sunday. That was due to a front that will be stalled in the northwestern portion of the region for the next several days. Systems moving along the front will continue shower chances for most of the week in the northwest, before the front gets pushed eastward this weekend. Overall, showers may limit some harvest in the northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

Delta: Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Mississippi River is getting a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, that will not last long as the water makes its way to the Gulf. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through this weekend and early next week may slow the decline on the river, at least a little bit.

Brazil: Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway, seemingly for good. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last 17-21 days, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

Argentina: A front moved through over the weekend with scattered showers. Though it missed some areas, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Soybean planting will get started later in October. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions are so far favorable.

Europe: Isolated showers continued over eastern Europe over the weekend, which continues there for much of the week. Drier conditions in the northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as another system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week.

Black Sea: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but were not as heavy as some might have hoped with overall drought still an issue for much of western Russia. Only isolated showers are in the forecast for this week along with cooler temperatures that may produce frosts across the north on occasion.

Australia: Some showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Where showers occurred and in others with good soil moisture, the dryness has not been all that concerning. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country this week though, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop.

China: Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue this week before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs.

The player sheet for 10/10 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 19,500 corn, sellers of 17,000 soybeans, sellers of 8,000 soymeal, and sellers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency was believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

TODAY

Goldman Cautions ‘Wider Range of Outcomes’ From US-China Tension

Goldman Sachs leans toward seeing the latest re-escalation between the US and China as “just efforts to gain negotiating leverage ahead of expected bilateral meeting at this month’s APEC summit, but their recent moves suggest a wider range of outcomes than was the case ahead of prior US-China talks over the last few months, the bank’s economists said in a note Monday.

• There’s possibility of greater concessions and possibly lower tariffs but also risk of substantial new export restrictions and higher tariffs, at least temporarily, economists led by Andrew Tilton, Hui Shan and Lisheng Wang wrote
• The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further, and possibly indefinite—extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May, they add
• The recent policy announcements could also signal that China intends to push for greater concessions from the US, potentially yielding a market-positive outcome in which some US tariffs are lowered, and possibly some export controls relaxed, in return for loosening of rare earth restrictions and other concessions from China, the economist say
• However, higher expectations raise the risk of a more market-negative outcome in which the US and China reimpose triple-digit tariffs imposed earlier this year and/or follow through on more serious export restrictions, at least temporarily
• In coming days, important signals may include a statement from the White House to clarify how the administration views these policies; an update from either side on the likelihood of a Xi-Trump meeting; and any announcement from China on whether it intends to match the proposed US tariff increase

 China September Ag Imports

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean Imports in Sept. 12.869m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD rose 5.3% y/y to 86.18m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in Sept. 559,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 7.1% y/y to 5.011m tons
• Rubber imports in Sept. 742,000 tons
  • Rubber imports YTD rose 19.2% y/y to 6.115m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in Sept. 544,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 3.1% y/y to 4.785m tons
• Fertilizer exports in Sept. 5.438m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 45.4% y/y to 33.363m tons

Brazil Soybean, Corn Crop Survey Before Conab’s Report

The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey of as many as six analysts for Brazil’s soybean and corn crops.

• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its first official estimates for the 2025-26 crops on Oct. 14 at 9am local time

Brazil farmers plant 12.48% of 2025 expected soybean area, says Patria AgroNegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 12.48% OF 2025 EXPECTED SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 5.28% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

SovEcon Raises Russia Wheat Crop Outlook on Siberia Yields

Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is now seen at 87.8m tons, up from a previous estimate of 87.2m tons, agriculture consultancy SovEcon said in a note.

• That’s mainly due to production in Siberia, where yields are at record levels, it says
  • Plus, early snowfall there is unlikely to materially affect the harvest
• “Siberia’s record yields are helping offset earlier losses in the South. However, the impact on near-term exports will be limited, as the region is far from ports,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon

Analyst APK-Inform hikes Ukraine’s 2025/26 grain harvest, export forecast

Analyst APK-Inform has slightly increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest and outlook for exports due to higher than expected wheat production, it said on Sunday.

The consultancy predicted Ukraine could harvest 59.1 million metric tons of grain, including 22.4 million tons of wheat and 29.8 million tons of corn.

It expected grain exports to rise to 43.5 million tons in the 2025/26 July-June season from the previous outlook of 41.9 million, thanks to higher wheat and corn sales.

Analyst APK-Inform cuts Ukraine 2025 sunflower seed, sunoil production outlook

Analyst APK-Inform has sharply cut its forecasts for Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest and sunflower oil output due to poor weather in the country’s southern regions, it said on Sunday.

Ukraine’s sunseed output could total 12.5 million metric tons against a previous forecast for 13.6 million tons, APK-Inform said, while sunflower oil production is seen decreasing to 5.36 million tons, from 5.86 million tons.

Kazakhstan Harvests 24.6m Tons of Grain, Ministry Says

About 94% of the planted area, or 15.1m hectares, has been harvested, Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

Russia’s Wheat Exports Fall 30% as New Season Starts Sluggishly

Wheat exports from Russia are running nearly a third below last season’s pace, as the world’s largest shipper faces mounting competition in the global market.

The slow start follows poor harvests in southern regions that usually drive sales. Although shipments from other areas have since increased, demand remains weak, with buyers holding off as expectations grow that wheat prices — already near a five-year low — could fall further due to abundant global supplies and approaching Southern Hemisphere harvests.

Russia exported about 11.2 million tons of grain from July through September, down from 15.3 million tons a year earlier, according to consultancy SovEcon. Another firm, IKAR, put the figure closer to 10.7 million tons.

The shortfall has drawn concern in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev told President Vladimir Putin this week that grain was the only sector seeing a decline in export revenues. Officials have recently held talks with major grain traders to boost overseas sales.

Alongside lower yields in drought-hit southern regions, exports have also been curbed by state duties that reduce profitability and additional security inspections of foreign vessels entering Russian ports. Those checks have caused delays of three to seven days, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.

Early October wheat export prices from Novorossiysk port rose to $225 per ton, up $7 from a year earlier, according to the Price Index Centre. The increase could signal faster exports by year-end, said Daria Snitko, Vice President and head of the analytical department at Gazprombank.

Analysts share a similar outlook, expecting a strong harvest and higher export volumes in October. But the early season slowdown has dented producers’ margins and weakened Russia’s position against other Black Sea and Western European suppliers, as well as new crops from the Southern Hemisphere.

“The Russian wheat market wasn’t that good and Russia started to lose the market, including those in Eastern Africa and Western Africa,” said Bilal Muftuoglu, head of dry bulk research at Howe Robinson Partners. “It might need to make prices lower.”

Because of shipment delays, some Middle Eastern buyers have also postponed purchases in hopes of lower prices.

“Jordan passed on their recent tender, with expectations for bumper wheat crops in Australia and Argentina weighing on the market,” said James Day, who works on the Ags and Softs desk at TP ICAP. Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, added that Egypt — the world’s largest wheat importer — has also taken a “wait-and-see” approach.

Modi Launches $4 Billion Program to Boost India’s Farm Sector

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday unveiled two programs worth 354 billion rupees ($4 billion) aimed at improving farm productivity, promoting crop diversification, and reducing India’s dependence on imports of pulses.

• The first initiative, the PM Dhan Dhaanya Krishi Yojana, with an outlay of 240 billion rupees, targets to improve farm productivity, promote sustainable and diversified agriculture, expand irrigation, and boost access to farm credit, Modi said at an event
• The government will also allocate 114.4 billion rupees to boost area and yield of pulses, besides focusing on procurement, storage, and processing
• Modi also inaugurated projects worth 54.5 billion rupees in agriculture, animal husbandry, fisheries, and food processing, and laid foundation stones for initiatives worth 8.15 billion rupees

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Producers focus on crops and limit sales

Some of Brazilian sellers are away from closing deals in the spot market because they are focused on 2025/26 crop activities. This scenario boosted prices in Brazil and sustained export premiums.

Sellers expect that the Chinese demand for Brazilian products increase in the last quarter of this year, based on uncertainties in the relation between the United States and China. According to Secex, China was the destination for 6.77 million tons of the national product in September, a record for the month. As for the demand, the crushing industry already claims to face difficulties to purchase batches in the spot market.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) upped 1.2% from October 2 and 9, closing at BRL 136.72 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 9. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 1.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 131.95 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) increased 1.6% and 1.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) between Oct. 2 and 9. The US dollar moved up 0.7% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 5.378 yesterday.

BYPRODUCTS – The Brazilian value of soy oil dropped 0.3% between October 2 and 9, at BRL 7,455.24 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Oct. 9. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal rose 0.3% over the last seven days.

Data from Secex indicate that Brazilian shipments of soybean meal increased 9.14% from August to September and 19.12% in one year, totaling 2.78 million tons last month, the highest volume since May 2025 and the highest for September since 2002. As for soybean oil, shipments amounted only 57.93 thousand tons in September, downing 61.8% and 28.6% in the monthly and annual comparisons, respectively (Secex).

CROPS – Conab indicates that 2025/26 sowing activities reached 8.2% of the national area up to Oct. 4.

CORN/CEPEA: Index increases and surpasses BRL 65/bag

Corn prices continues to move up in Brazil, influenced by the demand and by the fact that sellers are away from closing deals. Thus, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index returned to the level of BRL 65.00 per 60-kg bag this week.

Sellers are focused on weather conditions for the planting of the summer crop. Rains are back in the South and in the Central-West, bringing a certain relief, but this scenario also hinders crop activities. Moreover, Brazilian exports moved at a good pace in September, sustaining quotations in Brazil.

Some purchasers are operating in the spot market, aiming to rebuild stocks; however, many of them claim to have product for the short-term demand, which limits more significant price rises.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 1% between October 2 and 9, to close at BRL 65.19 per 60-kg bag on October 8. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values increased 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

Considering 22 producing days in September, Brazil shipped 7.56 million tons of corn, 18% more than in September/24 (6.42 million tons) – data from Secex.

Corn quotations rose 0.9% at the port of Santos (SP), but remained stable in Paranaguá (PR) over the last seven days. The US dollar moved up 0.7%, at BRL 5.378 on October 9.

CROPS – The summer crop planting has reached 29.1% in Brazil until October 4, higher than the 27.6% on the average over the last five crops (Conab).

In Paraná, 84% of crops were planted (Seab/Deral), while in Rio Grande do Sul, the percentage is at 73% of the area (Emater). In Santa Catarina state, Conab indicates that sowing activities reached 66% of the area.

HIGH RAINFALL IN MID-OCTOBER ACROSS S/SE BRAZIL MAY AFFECT PLANTING PROGRESS

What to Watch:

• Rains in South/Southeast Brazil may impede the first corn/soybean early plantings over the next 10 days but will support coffee blooming
• Dry conditions in most of the Pamaps will be neutral for wheat and supportive of corn/soybean sowing

 

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