Global Ag News For Oct 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina Wheat Harvest Seen at Record 23m MT, Rosario Says

Good growing conditions with plentiful rain have put the 2025-26 wheat crop on course to match a record of 23 million metric tons set in 2021-22, the Rosario Board of Trade said in its monthly estimates report.

• NOTE: The bulk of wheat harvesting is done in Nov./Dec.
• Soy planting approaching without the dryness issues seen in prior seasons
  • Area and production estimates unchanged at 16.4 million hectares (40.5 million acres) and 47 million tons respectively
• Corn planting slowed by wetness on farms; fieldwork progress 28%
  • Harvest estimate unchanged at 61 million tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil down 0.40.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil up 0.65.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 1.05.

Year-To Date nearby futures are down 8.0% in SRW, down 12.4% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 8.9%; Soybeans up 1.9%; Soymeal down 12.3%; Soyoil up 26.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil up 30; Palm oil down 24; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 45.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 45 ringgit (-0.98%) at 4546.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 9 were: SRW Wheat up 10,762 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,009, Corn up 6,338, Soybeans up 16,427, Soymeal up 8,872, Soyoil up 6,610.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 OCT 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool weather is expected in the West and warmth elsewhere over the next 10 days. In days 11–15, most of the U.S. turns cooler except the East. Rainfall will be above normal in the West and northern Plains; other regions stay mostly dry.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays warm with below normal rainfall during the next week, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and below normal temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather this week, with colder conditions expected to develop in the next week, while the rest of the continent remains warm in the 11-15-day period. Above-normal rainfall is expected across France, northern Germany, and northern Scandinavia, while the rest of Europe remains mostly dry over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia will continue near-normal to cool conditions over the next 10 days, with warmth limited to the East. Cooler weather is expected to spread in days 11–15 across Asia. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in East/Southeast Asia during days 6–15.

Northern Plains: Temperatures are rising in the region after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain and minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

Central/Southern Plains: Showers earlier this week may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

Midwest: Heavier rain earlier this week likely disrupted harvest a big, but also improved drought conditions and brought water into the Mississippi River system for transportation. A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas, especially west.

Delta: Showers that moved through earlier this week caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through most of next week.

Brazil: A front in the south has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, which has been unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. However, showers are starting to fill in across the region and are forecast to be widespread starting on Friday and continuing thereafter. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

Argentina: Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

The player sheet for 10/9 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer purchased wheat from Kazakhstan for the first time in at least 15 years, according to one person familiar with the matter and port data, marking a rare shift in sourcing as the country seeks to diversify its imports.
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

TODAY

Argentine Corn Crop Estimates Oct. 9: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m ha
• Planting advanced to 25.6% complete from 19.8%

Trump Sees China Renewing US Soybean Buys, Farm Aid on Hold

US President Donald Trump predicted China would resume purchases of American soybeans after meeting President Xi Jinping, though a cabinet official said federal relief for beleaguered farmers will have to wait until the government reopens.

Trump said Thursday that the pressure he would bring on the Chinese president during their planned sit-down later this month would end Beijing’s months-long moratorium on US soybean buys.

“What happens with soybeans is we’re going to see more and more, I think, opening up,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “He’s got things that he wants to discuss with me, and I have things that I want to discuss with him. And one of the things is soybeans.”

The Trump administration for weeks has teased a forthcoming aid program for farmers as a way to provide temporary assistance until market conditions improve but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins signaled that a package won’t be announced as long as the government funding lapse continues.

“We’ve got to get the government reopened so that we can move forward on that, and once we do, we’ll be able to move out a significant program to help our farmers long term,” she said during a cabinet meeting at the White House.

Farming communities, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2024 election, have been crushed as export markets have dried up and many federal-safety net programs have shrunk during his second term, in which the president has waged a trade war on virtually all US trading partners.

The refusal to buy American soybeans by China, the world’s largest importer of the crop, has hit farmers particularly hard. Despite the US-China trade truce, Beijing has turned to other exporters, including Brazil and Argentina for its supplies. Trump has claimed the move is a negotiating tactic in broader trade talks.

The US president threatened to bring some of his own leverage to bear when he sees Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Trump suggested he might restrict the sale of certain products to China, without offering specifics, when asked about reports Beijing is pursuing new curbs on its rare earths.

“We have the ultimate export. We have import and we have export. We import from China massive amounts. And, you know, maybe we’ll have to stop doing that, but I don’t know exactly what it is. Neither do you. Neither does anybody,” the president told reporters.

He said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would work on the issue. It was unclear what exports the president was referring to.

The Trump administration is considering whether to take steps to restrict the US operations of TP-Link Systems Inc., a China-linked router provider popular in the American market, according to people familiar with the matter.

Farmers’ Aid Plan Has to Wait Until After Shutdown, Rollins Says

The Trump administration will be able to roll out a “significant program” to help farmers after the government shutdown ends, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says.

Rollins speaks at President Trump’s cabinet meeting

US help for farmers would include direct subsidies, treasury chief tells Fox News

The United States would have announced this week a support package for farmers stung by trade disputes that included direct subsidies, if it weren’t for a government shutdown, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Thursday.

“We would have announced an AG program to bridge our farmers until the next season, and that will be through direct subsidies… because it’s important that our farmers get credit,” he told the ‘Ingraham Angle’ program.

He also said he expected Chinese buyers, which have deserted U.S. soybean farmers, to return at the end of the season.

Indonesia needs additional 5.3 mln tons of palm oil to implement its B50 plan, minister says

Indonesia would need 5.3 million metric tons of additional crude palm oil in order to implement its mandatory B50 plan in 2026, the country’s agriculture minister said on Thursday.

Malaysia forecasts crude palm oil prices to average between 3,900 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in 2026

The Malaysian government estimates the average price of crude palm oil to range between 3,900 ringgit ($925.05) and 4,100 ringgit per metric ton next year, due to higher global production and increased output of rival oils.

The benchmark crude palm oil contract was trading at 4,589 ringgit at Thursday’s close, with a year-to-date average price of 4,252 ringgit.

The oil palm subsector is expected to see higher crude palm oil output in 2026, due to increased fresh fruit bunch yields and improved oil extraction rates (OER), the government said in its economic outlook report released alongside its 2026 budget on Friday.

Favourable weather conditions are expected, and output is also likely to be boosted by the expansion of matured plantation areas, further improvements in harvesting practices as well as the continuing switch to mechanisation.

The government added that the improved OER, resulting from more frequent harvesting activities and better field management, will likely enhance fruit quality and reduce losses.

“These developments will provide a lift to the overall expansion of the oil palm subsector during the year,” it said.

Exports of agricultural goods are also projected to grow by 3.3% next year, supported by competitive prices and sustained global demand for palm oil and palm oil-based agricultural products, the report said.

Malaysia’s September palm oil stocks post unexpected rise to hit near 2-year high

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks unexpectedly rose for the seventh consecutive month in September to hit their highest in nearly two years, as higher imports amid weak local demand outweighed a slight output decline, industry regulator data showed on Friday.

Rising inventories in the world’s second-biggest producer of the tropical oil could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures, which are trading at a premium over rival soyoil futures.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose 7.2% in September to 2.36 million metric tons from August, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showed.

Crude palm oil production broke a two-month rise,slipping 0.73% to 1.84 million tons on the month, while exports rose 7.69% to 1.43 million tons, the highest since November last year.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories of 2.15 million tons, with output at 1.79 million tons and exports at 1.43 million tons.

MPOB delivered a mild surprise to the market with stocks that were notably above expectations, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

It reflects a supply-side buildup that could weigh on near-term price sentiment, Bagani said.

“The resilience in production, despite seasonal expectations of moderation, is adding to the supply pressure,” he said.

While exports signal some recovery in outbound demand, the year-on-year decline has tempered optimism, he added.

“The market’s next directional cues will hinge on forward-looking demand indicators and policy developments in the biofuel space,” he said.

Meanwhile, a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house said October’s production is likely to be higher than September.

“With exports slowing a bit, stock levels are expected to rise further,” the dealer said.

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Slide 39% Y/y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s grain and legume exports fell to 7.2 million tons between July 1 — the start of the marketing season — and Oct. 10, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

• This is down 39% from the same period a year ago
• The total includes:
  • 5.12 million tons of wheat, down 24.7% y/y
  • 939,000 tons of barley, down 39.5% y/y
  • 974,000 tons of corn, down 68.8% y/y

Russia May Increase Grain Export Quota in 2026: IFX

Russia’s grain export quota in 2026 may be higher than this year taking into account the current harvest, Interfax reports, citing Alexander Malov, a department head at the Agriculture Ministry.

• This year’s wheat export quota was 10.6m tons, while for barley and corn the quota was zero
• Russia’s export quota is valid annually from Feb. 15 to June 30

Russia Has Harvested 130m Tons of Grain, Minister Says: IFX

Russia has already harvested 130m tons of grain, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

• Ministry maintains grain forecast at 135m tons
• As of October 8, wheat harvest amounted to 91.5m tons (in bunker weight), which is 6.5m tons more than last year
• Russia has harvested almost 90% of grain crops

Russia will reduce wheat sown area by over 6% in 2025, deputy agriculture minister says

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is set to reduce its winter and spring wheat sown area by over 6% this year in favour of growing more oilseeds, Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said on Thursday.

Data presented by Razin confirms the recent trend of farmers abandoning wheat, which they consider less profitable due to low global prices, high domestic export duties and droughts affecting the top-producing areas in southern Russia.

“There are deviations from the planting plan for grain and leguminous crops towards oilseeds. The plan for winter wheat areas has been reduced, which is not great,” Razin told an agricultural conference, reflecting the government’s dissatisfaction with the reduction in the sown area. Wheat remains Russia’s main agricultural export commodity.

A table shown during Razin’s speech showed that the wheat sown areas will be reduced by 6.2% to 28.2 million hectares in 2025 compared to the previous year and by 6.6% compared to the initial plan for this year.

Wheat exports from Russia slowed sharply in August and September.

The oilseeds sown area, including sunflower seeds, soybeans, and rapeseed, seen as more profitable by many farmers, will grow by 8.5%. Russia is also the world’s top sunflower oil producer.

Rio Grande do Sul records the beginning of the wheat harvest, says Emater

(Story was translated by Google Translate)

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s largest wheat producer, has recorded the first harvests of the 2025 crop, in a season in which crops have benefited from the weather, Emater said in a weekly bulletin on Thursday.

“The harvest is in its infancy, at a proportion of just under 1% of the cultivated area, which was initially projected at 1,198,276 hectares…”, said the technical assistance company linked to the Rio Grande do Sul government.

In general, wheat cultivation advances to the final phase of the cycle, “showing adequate vegetative and reproductive development”.

Most crops are between the grain filling (58%) and physiological maturity (18%) stages, and the later sowings are still in earing and flowering stages (20%).

“Production potential remains high, depending on the level of technology and local conditions. Crops with higher investment demonstrate high uniformity and health, with expectations exceeding 3,900 kg/ha,” Emater said, referring to productivity.

In corn, heavy rainfall made sowing difficult in several regions of the state, such as the Western Border, where accumulated rainfall exceeded 110 mm.

“This rainfall caused delays in sowing and hindered the movement of heavy machinery in crop areas. The low temperatures in the Upper Uruguay region reduced the rate of plant growth,” he said.

The state is Brazil’s main producer of corn in the first harvest.

The sown area increased by just 1 percentage point in the week and reached 73% of the projected total.

La Nina Forecast Raises Early Alarm Bells for Milei’s Argentina

A developing La Nina is raising alarm bells in Argentina, where the climate pattern can conjure heat waves and droughts that curtail the country’s key soybean and corn crops.

While La Nina is expected to be weak this year, its mere emergence poses a risk in Argentina’s Pampas growing belt, where farmers are gearing up for planting. La Nina-fueled droughts in 2018 and 2023 contributed to the downfall of two previous governments in Argentina, which is the No. 1 global supplier of soy meal and oil and the No. 3 exporter of corn.

The stakes are high this harvest season. Economic activity has been flailing on a quarter-to-quarter basis and President Javier Milei, whose government is desperate for hard currency, will next year rely heavily on proceeds from crop exports worth some $30 billion annually.

“There will be dry spells,” said German Heinzenknecht, an agro-meteorologist in Tandil, Buenos Aires province. But high levels of soil moisture should help farmers, he added.

Of course, it’s impossible to forecast how the season will play out at such an early stage. Just take Argentina’s last crop: La Nina seemed to be imperiling farms, but rains eventually came to rescue soybeans.

“It isn’t good news that La Nina is looming,” said Leonardo De Benedictis, a meteorologist at agriculture consultancy AZ Group in Buenos Aires. “But the weaker it is, the better.”

DRY WEATHER FAVORS CORN HARVESTS ACROSS EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGION

What to Watch:

• Dry spells in Central Europe and Black Sea region
• Warm temperatures in Europe and cool in the Black Sea region

PAST WEATHER:

• Europe: Cool temperatures (1 °C below normal) were observed across Europe except Spain, U.K., and Scandinavia (1 °C below normal) during the past week. Dry conditions (up to 15 mm below normal) prevailed across Spain and France, while the rest of Europe and southern Scandinavia experienced wet weather (5-50 mm above normal) over the past week. Dry weather may favor wheat planting across France and Spain, while wet spells could delay corn harvests in Germany.
• Black Sea: Mixed temperatures were observed across Ukraine and Turkey, while cooler conditions (1 °C below normal) prevailed in Kazakhstan during the past week. Dry conditions (up to 10 mm below normal) were recorded across the Black Sea, while far south Ukraine and west Turkey experienced isolated wet spells during the same period. The dry conditions may favor corn harvesting across Ukraine except in the south.

FORECAST:

• Europe: Warm weather (1 °C above normal) across Europe during the next 5 days. Cool weather (1 °C below normal) is expected across Southeast Europe, while the rest of Europe is likely to experience warmer conditions (°C above normal) during the 6–10-day outlook. In the 11-15-day outlook, warm weather (1 °C above normal) is expected across Europe. Wet spells (10–70 mm above normal) are expected across Scandinavia, southern Spain, and the U.K., while dry weather (10-20 mm below normal) is expected for the rest of Europe during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor corn harvesting/wheat planting across Europe crop belts.
• Black Sea: Near normal to cool temperatures (1 °C below normal) are expected across Ukraine/Turkey during the 10-day forecast, and then warmth (1 °C above normal) will arrive in the 11-15-day outlook. Dry weather (5-25 mm below normal) is expected across the Black Sea Region. Dry weather may support corn harvesting across Ukraine.

LA NIÑA MAY BE A DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER IN DECEMBER-FEBRUARY EVEN IF IT REMAINS WEAK

What to Watch:

• La Niña conditions have just developed, completing a trajectory that began back in July
• This La Niña event may remain weak, but it is expected to carry through the December-February period as the dominant global ocean pattern
• A cold winter is most confident in Asia, while Argentina heat/drought risks may loom for South America

EUROPE/EURASIA ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A MILD WINTER WITH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST, WHILE BRAZIL MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL IN DECEMBER-FEBRUARY.

• North America (wheat): A mild winter is likely for North America. Warmth during December-February could be widespread in nature, with highest confidence in the Western U.S. A dry winter is anticipated over most of the continent, including all major crop regions. If this warm/dry outlook verifies, the main concern for winter wheat would be worsening long-term drought prospects.
• South America (coffee/sugar/corn/soybeans): A divided weather pattern could be in store for South America during December-February. Temperatures are likely to be cooler than normal in Brazil, and warmer than normal over Argentina. Meanwhile, high rainfall is anticipated across most of Brazil, with drought risks evident for Argentina. If this outlook verifies, downside crop risks would be focused on Argentina corn/soybeans during the key development stages, while all Brazil crops would benefit from cool/wet conditions.
• Europe/Black Sea (wheat/rapeseed): Widespread warmth is evident across Europe and the Black Sea Region this winter. The temperature forecast during December-February shows warmth spanning most of Europe and the Black Sea Region, with moderate cold risks limited to the U.K. and Spain. Meanwhile, an active storm track is likely to extend across Europe and into Ukraine, while Russia is likely to be dry. Therefore, weather could support upside for spring crops over Europe and into the Black Sea Region this winter, with long-term drought risks in Russia as the main concern.
• Asia (wheat/palm oil/sugar/coffee): December-February is likely to feature a divided weather pattern in Asia. Temperatures are expected to be colder than normal over most of the continent, except for central/northern Japan and northern India where warmth is likely instead. On precipitation, dry conditions are anticipated in most areas, except for the Vietnam Central Highlands where high rainfall is likely instead. A cold/dry China winter would lead to downside risks to wheat, and dry weather across Indonesia/Malaysia could be unfavorable for palm oil as well as the main crop risks.
• Africa (cocoa/coffee/maize): Cool temperatures are anticipated over Africa during December-February, with high rainfall focused on South Africa. Temperatures are likely to be cooler than normal spanning most of the continent, including all the major crop regions. On precipitation, wet conditions are expected in South Africa, while most of West/Central Africa especially along the important coastal regions could be dry. This outlook is very favorable for crops overall, as cool/wet weather would benefit South Africa maize development, while drier conditions would facilitate the coffee/cocoa harvest.
• Australia (wheat/rapeseed/sugar): Cool conditions expected in Australia during December-February. Widespread cool temperatures are likely in store for Australia during December-February, with the highest confidence in the eastern regions. On precipitation, no anomalous weather is anticipated. Cool temperatures would be favorable Queensland sugarcane, with minimal crop impacts beyond that.

 

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