Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
Opening calls look mixed awaiting weekly export sales.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 3 cents; HRW down 9; HRS unchanged; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 7 cents; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil down 50 points. Crushing margins are down 1 cent at $1.03; Oil share is unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 74 yuan in soybeans, down 6 in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, down 44 in Soyoil, and up 2 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 111 ringgit at 3,338 (basis February) on demand hopes with India cutting import tax.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 17,000 Corn; sold 6,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 267,000 Corn; net long 224,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 111,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 6,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,100; Corn down 32,600; Soybeans up 2,600 contracts; Soymeal down 6,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,500.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,658 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 175,000t Russian wheat—S. Korea bought45,000t Australian wheat—
U.S. winter wheat production unchanged but extreme dryness in the South warrants attention – Refinitiv Commodities Research
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday cut its forecast for global corn (maize) production in the 2020/21 season, while doubling its projection for China’s corn imports.
In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body reduced its global corn crop forecast by 10 million tonnes to 1.146 billion tonnes mainly due to diminished outlooks for crops in the United States, Ukraine and European Union; the corn crop in the United States, by far the world’s top producer, was pegged at 368.5 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 373.9 million and bringing it into line with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current forecast.
The EU’s corn crop forecast was cut to 60.1 million tonnes from 62.6 million, driven by a sharp downward revision for Romania’s crop to 7.1 million tonnes from 10.4 million seen previously.
Drought has dented the outlook for corn production in both Romania and Ukraine this year.
Ukraine’s crop was pegged at 30 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 33 million.
The IGC also raised its forecast for China’s corn imports in the 2020/21 season to 16 million tonnes from a previous projection of 8 million tonnes.
The IGC raised its forecast for 2020/21 world wheat production by a modest 1 million tonnes to 765 million tonnes; China’s wheat import forecast was raised slightly to 7.8 million tonnes from a previous projection of 7.3 million.
China puts tariffs of up to 200 per cent on Australian wine – ABC Premium News
The Chinese Government has announced it will place tariffs on all Australian wine imports from tomorrow, striking a blow to the billion-dollar industry; the Chinese Government has announced it will place tariffs on all Australian wine imports from tomorrow, striking a blow to the $1.2 billion-a-year industry.
Argentine soy planting progressed by 10.6 percentage points over the last week as rains brought relief to the country’s central farm belt, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
The country’s 2020/21 wheat harvest is 30.9% in while 39.3% of expected soy area has been sown along with 31.9% of corn, the exchange said in its weekly crop report.
Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Friday it sees Russia’s 2021 gross grain crop at 125 million tonnes, down from 130.5 million tonnes for 2020; Russia’s wheat harvest may decline to 78 million tonnes, from 84 million tonnes, next year.
The European Commission cut slightly its 2020/21 forecast for usable common wheat production in the European Union’s 27 countries to 115.8 million tonnes, from 115.9 million estimated last month.
In supply and demand projections released on its website, the Commission kept unchanged its monthly forecast for EU-27 exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, for the 2020/21 season that started in July at 24.0 million tonnes.
The EU executive also kept unchanged its estimate of usable maize production at 60.2 million but lowered projected maize imports to 21 million tonnes from 22 million seen last month.
For rapeseed, the Commission kept its estimate of 2020/21 usable production at the 15.9 million projected last month.
A highly contagious and deadly form of avian influenza is spreading rapidly in Europe, putting the poultry industry on alert with previous outbreaks in mind that saw tens of millions of birds culled and significant economic losses.
Paris wheat futures ticked higher on Thursday, steadying after a day-earlier slide in light trading as a U.S. holiday closure removed usual impetus; March milling wheat unofficially closed up 0.50 euros, or 0.2%, at 210.00 euros ($250.13) a tonne; on Wednesday, it had risen to 212.75 euros, equalling a life-of-contract high set two weeks ago
South African maize farmers will likely harvest 15.408 million tonnes of maize in 2020, slightly lower than last month’s estimate after slow pace of service deliveries effected quality of the crop, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said on Thursday.
India’s palm oil imports set to jump as tax cut lures refiners – Reuters News
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-25 period are estimated down 21.2% on month at 1,127,495 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
