Global Ag News For Nov 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Tyson Foods to close major US beef plant as cattle supplies dwindle

• Tyson shutting Nebraska plant with 3,200 employees
• Closure will hit city of about 10,000 residents
• Tight cattle supplies raise costs for US meatpackers

Tyson Foods -will close a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, with about 3,200 employees in January after U.S. cattle supplies dropped to their lowest level in nearly 75 years, the meatpacker said on Friday.

The closure in the heart of cattle-feeding country signaled that supplies will remain tight, forcing meatpackers to pay steep prices for cattle to process into steaks and hamburgers.

Beef prices have set records due to low supplies and strong demand, raising costs for consumers. President Donald Trump said last month that he was working to bring down prices.

Tyson said it will also reduce operations at a beef plant in Amarillo, Texas, to a single, full-capacity shift, affecting about 1,700 workers.

“Tyson Foods recognizes the impact these decisions have on team members and the communities where we operate,” the company said in a statement.

Tyson said the changes were expected around January 20 and that it will increase production at other facilities to meet customer demand.

BEEF BUSINESS LOSES BIG

Beef prices soared this year as cattle supplies dwindled and meatpackers increasingly competed for limited supplies of livestock.

Ranchers slashed their herds after a years-long drought burned up pasture lands and hiked feeding costs. Some have slowly started to rebuild their herds, though it takes at least two years to raise full-grown cattle.

Tyson’s beef business suffered adjusted losses of $426 million in the 12 months ended on September 27 and $291 million over the previous year. The meatpacker projected the unit will lose $400 million to $600 million in the 2026 fiscal year.

“We all expected a plant to be closed at some point in 2026,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale. “I’m a little surprised they’re doing it preemptively.”

Losses in Tyson’s beef business were a turnaround from the fat profits it and other processors reaped during the COVID-19 pandemic, when meat prices soared as infections among plant workers slowed output.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 0.27.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 23 1/2 in SRW, down 22 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/2; Soybeans down 35 1/4; Soymeal down $14.60; Soyoil down 1.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, down 15 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 1.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.3% in SRW, down 9.5% in HRW, down 5.2% in HRS; Corn is down 7.7%; Soybeans up 12.4%; Soymeal up 2.1%; Soyoil up 25.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 32 yuan; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil down 32; Palm oil down 106; Corn up 23 — Malaysian Palm is down 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 14 ringgit (-0.34%) at 4055.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 328 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 21 were: SRW Wheat down 5,721 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,121, Corn down 52,985, Soybeans down 4,841, Soymeal down 28,101, Soyoil up 1,547.

 

A SLOW TREND TO DRY CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Apart from a single wet spell in the next week, dry weather may dominate across the Argentinian Pampas throughout the next 2-4 weeks
• Rains in Central Brazil will improve soil moisture levels in the main soybean areas, while drought risks will increase in the South

  

Brazil: A front across the north filled in with showers over the weekend across central Brazil. Showers should occur here throughout the week. A front will move through the south over the weekend, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

Argentina: Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers Friday and Saturday, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions in the country.

Northern Plains: It was dry but breezy and warm over the weekend. A system will move through like a clipper Monday and Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of snow across the north. Cold air will remain in place the rest of the week, but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through this weekend. Heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

Central/Southern Plains: A system moved in on Sunday with scattered showers and some thunderstorms that will continue through Monday. A stronger cold front will push through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air, but will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models will still work out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are in the forecast. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will sent most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for this weekend and next week that may have massive impacts as well.

Midwest: Scattered showers ended on Friday with a system that moved across the region. Another system will spread rain through the region on Monday, which will immediately be followed by a clipper system Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and snow, along with a burst of much cooler air. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including severe weather, heavy rain, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a very big burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

Delta: Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week’s rainfall, but are still low. However, some showers will move through with a system Monday into Tuesday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

Europe: Scattered showers moved through a lot of the country over the weekend, which continues for most areas this week as well. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

Black Sea: Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently, including over the weekend. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers this week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures are slowing the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

Australia: Scattered showers went through eastern areas of the country over the weekend, but were patchy and missed a lot of areas. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the coming cotton and sorghum crops, which starts up shortly.

China: Overall drier conditions continue to favor the remaining corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Drier weather recently has allowed soggy soils to drain in central China, being more favorable for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 11/21 had funds: net sellers of 0 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SOYMEAL SALES: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is thought to have purchased animal feed corn and soymeal in international tenders this week seeking around 120,000 metric tons of both corn and soymeal, European traders said on Friday. The volume bought was not clear but some estimates were that three consignments each of about 60,000 tons of corn and up to three consignments each of about 60,000 tons of soymeal were bought. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are still possible later.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), said on Monday it has purchased 300,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins, traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was November 5.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $353.11 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders said. Offers are still being considered and no purchase had yet been reported, they said.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 198M Bushels in August: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 18.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 18.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 9.7% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 463.4M Bu in August

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 3.4% lower than in August 2024
• In total, mills consumed 511m bu of corn in August, a 3.9% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.87m tons

 

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 2.04M Head in Oct.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 10% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 8.1%
• The US feedlot herd as of Nov. 1 were down 2.2% y/y to 11.706m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 8% to 1.697m head

 

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean planting hits 79.61%, Patria Agronegocios says

Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2025/26 season reached 79.61% of the expected area, compared with 83.29% at this point in the previous crop year, consultancy Patria Agronegocios said on Friday.

• Despite the year-on-year delay, current planting progress is ahead of the 68.75% from the 2023/2024 season and faster than the five-year average of 75.16% for this period.
• Irregular rainfall across much of Brazil has contributed to planting delays, Patria said, with field conditions pointing to potential yield cuts.
• Planting in Mato Grosso state, in the center-west region, hit 98.4%, down from 99.8% a year earlier, but still leading the country.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices are stable in Brazil, but drop in the US

Cepea, 21 – Sellers are away from closing trades, since they are focused on summer crop activities. Thus, corn prices are firm in many regions surveyed by Cepea. As for the demand, agents close deals when they need to replenish inventories.

Abroad, values are moving down, influenced by estimates indicating high global production between 2024/25 and 2025/26 crops. However, price drops were limited by the sharp international demand for the US product.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices rose only 0.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 67.64 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 19. In the accumulated of November, the Index has increased 2.3%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, between November 13 and 19, corn values upped 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices move up in Brazil

Cepea, 21 – The heterogeneous volume of rainfall in Brazil, the need to replant and expectations of firm demand from abroad next year have led Brazilian producers to be more cautious about trading new batches. Thus, liquidity in the spot market has reduced this week, and prices went up.

Soy values were also influenced by projections indicating low global supply, which along with the high demand in the 2025/26 season, may reduce the stock/consumption relation to the lowest volume in three crops.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.2% from November 13-19, closing at BRL 141.70 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 19. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 1.1% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 135.85 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal increased 1.3% comparing November 13 and 19. The Brazilian value of soy oil closed at BRL 7,034.32 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Nov. 19, moving down 2.5% from Nov. 6-13.

 

Indonesia’s main agriculture production targets for 2026

Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman told a parliamentary hearing on Monday the following agriculture production targets for 2026:

• Rice output at 34.77 million metric tons vs 34.7 million tons in 2025
• Corn output at 18 million tons vs 16.55 million tons in 2025
• Meat production at 514,070 tons vs 505,080 tons in 2025
• White sugar output at 2.8 million tons

 

US Milk Production Rose 3.9% Y/y in October, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.73b lbs, 702m more than in October of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 2,049 lbs, a 1.5% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 3.7% y/y to 19.47b lbs

 

India and Afghanistan to launch air cargo services to boost trade

Air cargo services between India and Afghanistan will be launched soon, an Indian foreign ministry official said on Friday, as the two countries seek to reset ties amid soured relations with common neighbour Pakistan.

The announcement came during a visit to New Delhi by Afghanistan’s Taliban Trade Minister Nooruddin Azizi, who has urged India to boost trade and open cargo hubs as Kabul seeks access to grains, medicines and industrial goods following the closure of its border with Pakistan after military clashes.

Kabul’s air freight corridors with Delhi and the northern Indian city of Amritsar have been “activated”, and cargo flights will operate on the sectors “very soon”, said Anand Prakash, a joint secretary in the Indian foreign ministry.

“All formalities from our side are over. We are waiting for all the papers from their (Afghan) side … Once they complete them, the cargo flights will start,” Prakash told Reuters on the sidelines of an India-Afghanistan business conference.

Indian airlines do not fly to Afghanistan as Pakistan has shut its airspace for them as tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad soared this year and led to their worst clashes in decades. Afghan carriers have regular passenger connections between Kabul and Delhi.

India and Afghanistan have historically had friendly relations but New Delhi does not recognise the Taliban government, which came to power in Kabul after the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO forces in 2021.

But they have moved quickly to recalibrate ties in recent months, which experts attribute to souring relations with Pakistan – a buffer between the two countries – and to India’s concerns about rival China making inroads in Afghanistan.

Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi last month in the first such trip to India by a Taliban leader since 2021.

The two countries have upgraded ties since, with India reopening its embassy in Kabul that was shut in 2021.

 

 

 

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