TOP HEADLINES
France Raises Corn Crop Estimate Even as Rains Soak Harvest
This year’s French corn crop is now seen at 14.6m tons, versus an October estimate for 14.5m tons, the country’s agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.
- That would be 10% above the five-year average
- NOTE: Heavy rain has slowed fieldwork in recent weeks; some 58% of the corn crop was harvested as of early November, well behind the five-year average
- Sugar beet crop estimate cut to 33.7m tons, from 34.2m tons
- Soft-wheat output raised slightly to 25.6m tons, versus 25.4m tons
- Outlooks for barley and durum wheat are little changed
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 1.39.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil down 1.99.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 21; Soybeans up 20 3/4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil up 1.61.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.9% in SRW, down 13.2% in HRW, down 18.2% in HRS; Corn is down 8.4%; Soybeans down 21.8%; Soymeal down 23.7%; Soyoil down 2.3%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal up 14; Soyoil down 132; Palm oil up 42; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 170.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 170 ringgit (-3.27%) at 5026.
There were changes in registrations (-12 Corn). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 658 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 11 were: SRW Wheat up 189 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,011, Corn down 6,202, Soybeans down 2,636, Soymeal up 1,260, Soyoil up 1,064.
Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.
Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, below normal west and above normal east Wednesday.
Midwest: West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for Nov. 11 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Monday without issuing an international tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice
- CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 13.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
TODAY
Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 67% Done as of Nov. 7: Agrural
Compares with 54% a week earlier and 61% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.
- With Mato Grosso and Parana already in the final stretch and Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul also well advanced, the pace of sowing is now up to the states with the latest calendar, according AgRural
- Summer corn planting reached 72% of the estimated area for the Center-South of Brazil, compared to 59% in the previous week and 76% from a year ago
Brazil’s C-S Winter Corn Crop Sales 66.5% Completed: Safras
Sales of the winter corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region compares with 59.9% a year earlier and a five-year average of 67.4%, according to a report from Safras & Mercado consulting firm,
Ukraine Agricultural Exports Rose 30% Last Month: UkrAgroConsult
Ukraine’s agricultural exports reached 6m tons in October, 30% more than in September, UkrAgroConsult analysts wrote in a report.
- That’s despite several attacks in the first half of October that damaged vessels
- Share of exports via Greater Odesa ports increased to 80% in October, highest monthly level so far this year
- Ships entering Odesa ports have started switching off automatic identification systems due to the attacks; that makes it difficult to track export volumes: UAC
- Separately, UAC writes that measures to introduce minimum prices for cereals and allow only registered VAT payers to export from Dec. 1 could lead to “higher professionalism” in the market
Ukraine’s Astarta Completes Planting of Winter Crops
Astarta has completed the sowing of winter wheat, rapeseed and peas, the Kyiv-based company says in a statement.
- Planting includes:
- Over 46k hectares of winter wheat, down 6.1% from last year’s winter planting
- Over 17k hectares of winter rapeseed, up 42%
- 2k hectares of winter peas
- Harvesting of sugarbeet continues
Ukraine’s winter grain sowing 96.3% complete, says ministry
Ukrainian farmers had sown almost 5 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Nov. 11, or 96.3% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
It said the area included almost 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat, or 97.2% of the projected area. Winter wheat generally accounts for 95% of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.
Farmers had also sown 577,800 hectares of winter barley and 68,100 hectares of rye.
Ukraine’s state weather forecasters said last month that most of the country’s winter crop was under threat as almost all seedlings were under-developed.
A record long drought this summer and in the early autumn led many farmers to sow grain in dry soil in the hope that the autumn rains and mild winter will allow the seeds to germinate and produce a good crop.
Ukrainian farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters last week that the country’s farmers would meet its winter sowing target for the 2025 harvest despite difficult weather conditions. He also said the weather situation is not critical and that he was “optimistic” about the condition of winter crops sprouting.
However, the Ukrainian national agricultural academy said earlier this month that weather in October, as well as in September, was unfavourable for the development of Ukrainian winter crops, most of which lack moisture.
There was no comparative data or further details in the ministry’s statement. The ministry said last year that Ukrainian farmers had sown about 3.97 million hectares of winter wheat, or 91.1% of the expected area, as of Nov 14, 2023. The 2025 winter wheat area is seen at around 4.5 million hectares, the ministry said. Ukraine has completed the 2024 wheat harvest, threshing around 22 million metric tons, the same volume it harvested in 2023.
Argentine soy farmers to speed through planting after weekend rains
Rains over the weekend in parts of Argentina’s agricultural heartland mean that farmers will able to keep up the quick pace in planting of this season’s soy crop, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday.
The South American nation’s main growing region logged between 7mm (0.28 inch) and 15mm (0.59 inch) of rain in recent days, but the north and the eastern plains saw up to 40mm (1.57 inches), according to the exchange.
Now with dry weather expected for the next few days, farmers should be able to carry on sowing an expected 17.7 million hectares (43.7 million acres) of farmland with soybeans for this season, the exchange said.
“We have a week of high temperatures ahead of us. We are experiencing very significant (planting) activity, almost 850,000 hectares have been sown in the last seven days,” said Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the exchange, in an audio broadcast by the exchange. “So as soon as conditions are right, sowing will continue very strongly,” he added.
A separate exchange, the Buenos Aires grains exchange, said last week that around 8% of the estimated soybean area for this season had been planted so far. That exchange puts out weekly estimates, and pegs the total area at the slightly higher 18.6 million hectares (46 million acres).
Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal. According to the Rosario exchange, soybean production is expected to be between 52 million and 53 million metric tons this season.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices move up despite good pace of harvesting and firm imports
Wheat prices rose last week in Brazil, sustained by increases at CME Group and by the information that the government might purchase the cereal. Price rises were observed despite the harvesting in Brazil and the good pace of imports in October.
According to data from Cepea, between November 1 and 8, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 1.95% in Rio Grande do Sul, 1.15% in Santa Catarina and remained stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations moved up 0.84% São Paulo, 0.32% in Paraná and 0.41% in Rio Grande do Sul – in Santa Catarina, on the other hand, values dropped 0.6%.
Current prices received by producers are below the minimum defined by the government for the period from July 2024 to June 2025, leading players to go for the public policy in order to receive at the least the minimum. The minimum price set by the government in the current crop-year is at BRL 78.51 per 60-kilo bag in the South and at BRL 80.00/bag in other regions. Data from Cepea show that monthly average prices have been below the minimum in all areas since July this year.
Thus, the federal government has indicated the possibility to purchase up to 200 thousand tons of wheat from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.
Imports continue firm even in this scenario. Acquisitions totaled 552.4 thousand tons in October, the highest volume for the month in five years. In the partial of this year, the total is at 5.7 million tons, the highest for the period since 2013 – data from Secex.
The USDA indicated that the 2024/25 wheat season is estimated at 794.73 million tons, 0.5% more than in 2023/24 (790.419 million tons), while the consumption is likely to hit 803.41 million tons, 0.7% higher than in the crop before. Ending stocks may reduce 3.3% in the same comparison, at 257.57 million tons.
BYPRODUCTS – Comparing the period from Nov. 4-8 with the previous (October 28th to November 1st), values of wheat bran in bags increased 0.38%, but downed 0.25% for the product in bulk.
CROPS – In Paraná, 95% of the crops had been harvested up to November 5, according to data from Seab/Deral. In Rio Grande do Sul, the area is likely to hit 1.322 million hectares, downing 12.2% compared to the season in 2023. Emater/RS also says that the production may increase 57.2%, at 4.12 million tons.
3tentos Says Corn Processing Unit to Have 2,800 t/day Capacity
Company updated information on project related to its corn processing industry, announced on Jan. 15, in a statement.
- Project is still scheduled to be completed in early 2026, but the processing capacity will increase to 2,800 tons of corn and sorghum per day
- Industry will have capacity to produce 1,223 m³ of ethanol per day, 798 tons of DDGS per day and 50 tons of oil per day
Argentina FX Convergence Spurs Country’s Farmland Market: Cresud
A combination of agriculture-friendly policies by the government of President Javier Milei is “bringing liquidity” to the buying and selling of farmland, Cresud CEO Alejandro Elsztain said on an earnings call.
- The trend is lifting the value of Argentine farmland, which has been much cheaper than — and “disconnected” from — rival regions in the US and Brazil
- The main driver is the narrowing gap between the exchange rate used for crop exports and parallel rates to just 10-15%
- Lower taxes on imported farm inputs and a regulation that would allow foreigners to buy more acreage are also helping
- After selling some northern Argentine farm acreage last quarter for $614/hectare, Elsztain is “very optimistic” on the outlook for Cresud’s agricultural real estate business
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