Global Ag News for May 13.22

TODAY – CHINA TO AUCTION 500,000 TONS OF IMPORTED SOYBEANS ON MAY 20

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $0.41; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 63 1/4 in SRW, up 95 1/2 in HRW, up 112 in HRS; Corn is up 8 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $1.35; Soyoil up 1.61. For the month to date wheat prices are up 116 in SRW, up 160 1/4 in HRW, up 154 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 20; Soybeans down 61; Soymeal down $32.20; Soyoil down 1.67.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 52% in SRW, up 58% in HRW, up 32% in HRS; Corn is up 37%; Soybeans up 25%; Soymeal down -3%; Soyoil up 57%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 69 yuan; Soymeal up 75; Soyoil up 98; Palm oil up 38; Corn up 16 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 21 ringgit (+0.33%) at 6363.

There were changes in registrations (-31 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 1,047 SRW Wheat contracts; 25 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 50 Soymeal; 151 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 12 were: SRW Wheat up 6,186 contracts, HRW Wheat up 830, Corn up 12,551, Soybeans down 6,259, Soymeal up 1,953, Soyoil down 2,242.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers west Monday. Temperatures near to below normal west and near to above normal east Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Periods of isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers northwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, heavy east. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. Days 4-5: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers west Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Monday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal east and near to above normal west Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday-Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to below normal south and above normal north Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers east Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers east Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

The player sheet for 5/12 had funds: net buyers of 25,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 8,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 68,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year and 544,000 tonnes for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 196,560 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
  • CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa
  • WHEAT SALES UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased a total of around 450,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender this week
  • RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is seeking at least 25,000 tonnes of white rice in a tender-practice on the account of the Holding Company for Food Industries. GASC set the arrival date for July 1-31 and Aug. 1-31. Offers should be submitted on May 19.

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 136,000 tonnes of rice
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 196,560 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on May 12.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said that it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Aug. 31 and arrive in Japan by Oct. 27, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on May 18.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

 Argentina Wheat Output Seen at 20.5m Tons for 2022-23: Bourse

Argentina is expected to produce a total 20.5m tons of wheat in the 2022-23 season, Esteban Copati, chief analyst of the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a webcast.

  • Production estimate is lower than last year’s estimate of 22.4m tons for the 2021-22 season
  • Wheat planting area seen at 6.6mHa versus 6.7mHa estimated last year
  • Barley output expected at 5.4m tons, versus 5.2m estimated in 2021-22
  • Barley planting area seen at 1.3mHa versus 1.2mHa last year

Ukraine Spring Plantings Reach Half of 2021 Total; Fuel Lacking

Ukraine farmers have sown 8.6m hectares of spring crops as of May 9, according to a webinar from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, citing government data.

  • That compares to 11.4m hectares at about the same time last year and the total 2021 area of 16.9m hectares
  • Lack of fuel is a problem for farmers, as well as shortages of staff and machinery, says Roman Slaston, CEO of the club
  • Ukraine is currently on pace to export about 1.4m tons of grain in May, between shipments by railway, barges and trucks
  • “That’s still not enough, that’s far from our minimum needed goal,” he says
  • Group sees potential for truck volumes to rise, as many EU ports appear ready to receive grain deliveries this way

Western Australia’s Grain Season Is Off to a Good Start: Group

Western Australian grain belt is off to a “very good start,” with most regions having good sub-soil moisture, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said in a report Friday.

  • Early rains provided an opportunity for large areas of canola to be sown, with plantings increasing again over record area sown in 2021
    • More than half of the total canola plantings for Australia will be in Western Australia again this year
  • Early start and strong prices for canola and cereals mean total area for all crops will remain high this year, despite expectations for a drop back to more recent historical levels following last year’s record harvest
  • Up to 70% of the state’s crop was in the ground before the recent rain; the remainder will be planted by the end of May or early June
  • Wheat and barley areas are likely to remain unchanged from 2021
  • NOTE: Western Australia is the country’s top region for wheat production

French Wheat, Barley Ratings Drop as Dry Spell Worsens: AgriMer

The share of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition fell to 82% as of May 9, down from 89% the prior week, according to the latest FranceAgriMer data.

  • Corn was 92% planted, versus 84% the prior week
    • Compares to 95% at this time last year
  • High temperatures are expected again this weekend and early next week, according to Meteo France
  • Here’s a breakdown of French crops in good or very good condition:

Ukraine Wheat Crop to Fall 41% Y/y, Russia’s to Gain 13%: StoneX

Ukraine is expected to harvest 19.5m tons of wheat in 2022, down from 33m tons last year, according to the results of a StoneX survey.

  • Corn crop pegged at 25.6m tons, compared with 41.9m tons last year
  • Russia’s wheat crop seen at 85.1m tons, up from 75.2m tons

Baltic index rises for 9th consecutive session on higher capesize rates

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index rose for the ninth session in a row on Thursday, propelled by higher rates for capesize segment.

  • The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize shipping vessels, was up 65 points, or 2.1%, at 3,117 points.
  • The capesize index gained 209 points, or 5.6%, at 3,965 points, the highest since Dec. 13.
  • Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, were up $1,734 to $32,885.
  • Capesize rates are rising on increased activity out of Brazil, with expectations of a further improvement in activity on that route, Fearnleys wrote in a weekly note on Wednesday.
  • However, Chinese metallurgical coal futures fell more than 4% on Thursday, as poor downstream demand impaired market sentiment while the government’s recent pledge on tighter supervision on coal prices is expected to curb any significant gains. IRONORE/
  • The panamax index was down 6 points, or about 0.2%, at 3,310 points.
  • Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $58 to $29,790.
  • The supramax index fell 9 points to 2,750 points.

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates May 12: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2021-22 Production estimates maintained for both corn and soybean crops
  • Soybean harvest advances to 65% complete from 55%
  • The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

 NOPA April U.S. soybean crush forecast at 172.370 mln bushels -survey

The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed in April despite strong margins and adequate crushing supplies as several plants were idled for seasonal maintenance, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 172.370 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts.

If realized, the crush would be down 5.2% from the 181.759 million bushels NOPA members processed in March, but 7.5% higher than the April 2021 crush of 160.310 million bushels. It would also be the largest April crush on record, topping the 171.754 million bushels processed in 2020.

Estimates for the April 2022 crush ranged from 169.448 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 171.825 million bushels.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday. NOPA releases crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies as of April 30 were estimated to have declined to a five-month low of 1.839 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts.

If realized, the soyoil stocks would be down 3.6% from 1.908 billion pounds at the end of March but up 8.1% from the end of April last year, when oil stocks stood at 1.702 billion pounds.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.648 billion to 1.950 billion pounds, with a median of 1.860 billion pounds.

Higher Planted Area Offsets Drought in Brazil Corn Crops: Conab

Brazilian farmers are seen planting 16.3m ha with winter-corn in 2021-22, up from 15m ha in the past season, the national supply company Conab says Thursday in a report.

  • Winter-corn production seen at 87.7m tons, up 44% y/y
  • Yields may soar 33% from past season, which was hurt by adverse weather
  • Higher planted area has offset the adverse weather impact in key growing regions, such as Goias and part of Mato Grosso
  • The current crop won’t reach its yield potential, but Brazil is expected to reap a good production due to higher area, Conab says
  • Weather still may affect yields as most of crops are developing
  • Dryness is a concern for Mato Grosso and Goias, while Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul face frost risks
  • Total corn crop estimate cut to 114.6m tons from 115.6m tons
  • Exports forecast for 2022 increased to 38m tons from 37m tons
    • Shipments may rise 83% from 2021 on strong demand, rising production

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates May 12: Exchange 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2021-22 Production estimates maintained for both corn and soybean crops
  • Soybean harvest advances to 65% complete from 55%
  • The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

Indonesia Stops Cooking Oil Smuggling Attempt Amid Palm Oil Ban

Joint Indonesian law enforcement and ministries foil an attempt to smuggle cooking oil from a major port in main island Java over suspicions of inadequate information in export documents, according to statement from the Trade Ministry on late Thursday.

  • Officials confiscated 81,000 liters of cooking oil in containers at Tanjung Perak port in East Java bound for Timor-Leste
  • Exporter didn’t state cooking oil as the contents of the container in the export declaration document
  • Exporters may be subject to a fine of 5b rupiah and/or max. 5 years in prison for violating the export cooking oil ban, the statement cites Sihard Hardjopan Pohan, director for trade compliance at the ministry

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 13% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending May 7 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 10% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments up 25% w/w

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Fell 7.4% Week Ended May 4: USDA

The following table summarizes the number of railcars hauling U.S. grain to Pacific Northwest, Texas Gulf, Mississippi River ports and to Mexico, according to data in the USDA’s weekly transportation report.

Brazil’s JBS says China lockdowns don’t affect demand, logistics a concern

Brazil’s JBS SA, the world’s biggest meat company, said COVID-19 related lockdowns in China will not affect demand for JBS products there, though the effects on logistics remain a concern, management said in a Thursday call with analysts.

During the first quarter, meat inventories rose in the United States because of logistics issues that also hampered U.S. ports, increasing costs for that business unit. Still, China is seen as a long-term beef importer due to its low per capita consumption levels, JBS executives said.

Heat Waves Seen in India’s Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh for 5 Days

Heat waves are likely to continue in some areas of India’s Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh for five days from Friday, according to the India Meteorological Department.

  • Heat waves are also expected in some parts of Jammu, Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana for two days through Saturday and in parts of Maharashtra for four days through Tuesday
    • NOTE: The weather office defines a heat wave when actual maximum temperatures reach or exceed 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit)
    • India recorded a maximum temperature of 48.1 degrees Celsius on Thursday at Barmer in Rajasthan
    • No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely in northwestern and central India during the next 3 days
  • Rain likely in parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and northeastern states, including Assam, for five days from Friday
  • NOTE: Rain will spur sowing of summer-sown rice, oilseeds and pulses

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