Global Ag News For March 6.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Canadian National Railway Records Best February for Grain Movement

Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) said Thursday that it achieved its best February on record for grain movement.

The company said it shipped over 2.67 million ton of grain from Western Canada in February, demonstrating its ability to meet heightened seasonal demand during peak grain shipping periods.

“As grain volumes typically accelerate through the winter months following harvest, CN continues to proactively position resources and work with its grain customers and supply chain partners to support farmers in efficiently getting Canadian grain to domestic and global markets,” the company said.

The company said its nearly 20,000-mile rail network and related transportation services connects Canada’s Eastern and Western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Price: 149.28, Change: -1.90, Percent Change: -1.26

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 1/2 in SRW, up 9 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 0.18.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 1/8 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 14 1/2; Soymeal down $8.30; Soyoil up 3.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 21 3/4 in HRW, up 1/7 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal down $8.20; Soyoil up 3.67.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 14.9% in SRW, up 13.7% in HRW, up 5.9% in HRS; Corn is up 0.9%; Soybeans up 13.7%; Soymeal up 4.6%; Soyoil up 34.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal up 56; Soyoil up 60; Palm oil up 150; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 160.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 160 ringgit (+3.80%) at 4367.

There were changes in registrations (50 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 449 Corn; 482 Soybeans; 1,236 Soyoil; 229 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 5 were: SRW Wheat up 10,226 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,158, Corn up 45,500, Soybeans up 7,487, Soymeal down 127, Soyoil up 8,824.

 

Brazil: Rain has been falling over northern Brazil this week, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south, but causing transportation and quality concerns across the north. The country needs the consistent rains to return farther south as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well, returning to normal for next week. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season as we approach the final stages of wet weather.

Argentina: Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. Showers this week have been much lower than forecast, favoring far western areas so far. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before likely being drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress, but fertile areas in the south and east need more rain. For some, it is already too late and damage has been done. For late-planted corn and soybeans, there is still some limited time for rain to be beneficial.

Northern Plains: A system should bring a mix of rain and snow Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

Central/Southern Plains: Soil moisture is generally low across most of the region, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas and some recent rain in the east. More waves of showers and thunderstorms will move through into the weekend, some of which could be severe. Eastern areas are favored with the heavier rain, which could result in flooding. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

Midwest: Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting, though some heavier rain has fallen across the south this week, which should result in some improvements. A larger system will sweep through the region on Friday and Saturday with rounds of rain and potential severe weather. The same is true with another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Delta: Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain have been moving through the Plains and Midwest this week, aiding the rivers, but precipitation continues to be limited until a front moves through on Saturday. Some scattered showers may linger into early next week as well. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

 

The player sheet for 3/5 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 21,500 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, and buyers of 11,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 45,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms, European traders said. The soybeans are sought from any worldwide origins with 20,000 tons to be shipped in containers and 25,000 tons in bulk. The deadline for submissions of price offers is March 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 10.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 11.
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 50,000 tons of durum wheat, European traders said. The origin was optional. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 6.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. Of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the United States, about 22,200 tons from China and the rest from Australia, Vietnam and Thailand. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Feb. 26

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 26, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 153k tons
• Top buyer of corn: South Korea with 530k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Feb. 26

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 26, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 22.4k tons of the 36.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentina Soy Plants Stable After More Rains: Grain Exchange

Rains in the last few days are helping soybeans, including in key areas like southern Cordoba and western Buenos Aires provinces, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Soybean acreage in an excellent or good condition rises 1ppt w/w to 30%
• More than one quarter of first-crop beans are entering the crucial seed-fill phase and need more precipitation to sustain yield potential
• NOTE: Soy harvesting starts at the end of this month

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates March 5: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• Corn harvest advanced to 7.2% complete from 3.6% in the previous week

 

Brazil February Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC

• Beef exports rose 24% in February from a year ago
• Coffee exports fell 17% y/y
• Soybean exports rose 11% y/y

 

Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses

• Gulf war disrupts fertiliser supplies, shipping routes
• Farmers around world see prices rise just before planting season
• Urea prices jump as global fertiliser supply tightens
• Weeks-long shutdown would prevent supplies reaching farmers for spring

The world’s farmers face soaring fertiliser and fuel prices as the war in the Middle East escalates, leaving some scrambling for supplies as the spring planting season approaches.

The war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, has shut down fertiliser plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key importers around the world just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere prepare to plant seeds.

“It’s a mess because it’s spring,” said Cedric Benoist, who farms wheat, barley and other crops south of Paris, referring to global fertiliser prices that have jumped by dozens of euros per metric ton. “This situation can’t continue.”

Farmers from Srinagar in Kashmir to Saskatchewan in Canada rely on fertilizer and diesel shipped through the strait, the conduit for about one-third of global trade in fertilizer and 20% of the world’s export fuels.

Because of a global grains glut, many farmers were already expecting to lose money on this year’s crop. Now the outlook is especially gloomy for farmers who still need to buy spring fertilizer, like Jeff Harrison of Quinte West in Ontario. “We’re in a real bad situation now,” Harrison said.

Prices in the United States, which imports much of its fertilizer needs despite a large domestic industry, rose at the war’s outbreak. Prices for fertilizer jumped from $516 per metric ton on Friday to up to $683 at the import hub of New Orleans on Thursday. Prices could jump higher if the Persian Gulf closure persists and shipments can’t make it in time for spring planting, analysts told Reuters.

“Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

Seth Meyer, former U.S. Department of Agriculture chief economist and now at the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute, said farmers might alter crop choices and fertilizer applications due to the price spike.

Farmers need fertilizers for virtually all their crops if they want a good yield, but each crop and the soil they are grown in have different demands.

Farmers could cut back on corn, which requires high rates of nitrogen fertiliser, or else sharply reduce fertiliser application rates, Meyer said.

Shipments from the Middle East are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.

Qatar Energy has had to stop production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities.

At the same time, sulphur output has been cut in other parts of the Middle East.

“We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation,” Linville of StoneX said.

India buys more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the Middle East. While imports could be hit, output within India has already been affected.

Three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output as LNG supplies from Qatar have dropped sharply, said a New Delhi-based senior industry official. As a result, supply is expected to be tight for urea and diammonium phosphate in the short term, the person said.

 

Agroconsult hikes estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest amid crop tour

Brazilian farmers are expected to reap 183.1 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday, raising its January estimate by 850,000 tons as it runs a nationwide crop tour.

Agroconsult said in a statement that, despite the challenging weather, there was an improvement in the estimates for the crop in most of the states visited.

Analysts have visited 11 states and the country’s Federal District since January and are expected to finish field assessments in less than a month, the consultancy said.

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, which has losses estimated at 2 million tons in the crop due to irregular rains, is still set to be covered by the tour.

“The scenario can still change,” said Valmir Assarice, technical coordinator of the crop tour in the statement.

The higher forecast for the crop, which came despite Agroconsult maintaining its outlook for planted area at 48.8 million hectares, would represent a record harvest in the world’s largest soybean producer, up 6.4% from the previous season.

Earlier on Thursday, consultancy AgResource also said it has increased its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop, to 182.4 million tons. It did not disclosed its previous forecast.

 

Late season woes slightly lower Brazil soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.2 [175.0–183.6] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 178.2 [175.0–183.6] million tons, with harvest underway amid unfavorable late season weather across the Central-West/Southeast, leading to local delays and quality issues. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current median estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 180 million tons (released on 10 February), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.4 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.64 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.8 million hectares and 3.65 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 178 million tons and 48.4 million hectares, respectively (released on 12 February).

A continued trend of warmth and wetness largely remained in place over the past two weeks across Brazil’s most soybean crop regions, except in the South where rather cooler/drier conditions were prevalent. As of 28 February, Brazil’s soybeans were 41.7% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 02 March), well behind last year’s pace of 48.4% though slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 38.4%. The top producer Mato Grosso is reporting 81.3% of progress so far, ahead of last year’s 80.4% and the 5-year average of 75.1%, but some local delays are rampant in São Paulo (11% behind schedule), Maranhão (10.6% behind schedule), and Goiás (4.2% behind schedule), in particular, warranting attention. Nonetheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Argentina soybeans near maturity under variable conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [46.2–48.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is nearly unchanged at 47.4 [46.2–48.6] million tons, with the crop’s critical pod-fill in full swing ahead of maturity/harvest preparations amid mixed weather conditions. In February’s WASDE (released on 10 February), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in January. Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecasts production at 48.0 million tons.

Most soybean areas across the main Pampas received widespread precipitation over the past two weeks, benefiting crops now moving through the final stages of their prime growing season. Temperatures were consistently warm during the second half of February, followed by much cooler conditions this week. Although recent rainfall has generally supported the crop during its critical pod‑fill period, totals remained insufficient in parts of the southeastern Pampas, warranting attention. More rainfall is expected next week and possibly into the following week as well, but it will likely remain concentrated in the northwestern half of the Pampas, limiting potential yield gains.

 

Paraguay soybean production continues on track for a record harvest

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.5 [10.9–12.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is nearly unchanged at a record-high 11.5 [10.9–12.2] million tons, as favorable late season weather conditions across core producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region bode well for harvest. Some wetness is expected next week, warranting attention. Our current production outlook is in line with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.5 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 3.03 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 3.10 tph, respectively).

 

Global Wheat Output Seen Declining Almost 3% This Year: FAO

Global wheat production is expected to decline to 810m tons in 2026 as lower prices curb plantings, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Lower prices are expected to reduce wheat sowings in major producers, including Russia, the EU and the US
• Production is expected to remain stable in China and Ukraine, while India could maintain near-record output

For the 2025-26 season

• The FAO slightly raised its estimate for global grain production to a record 3.03b tons
• Global grain stocks are projected at 940.5m tons, up by 4.1m tons from the previous outlook
• The global stock-to-use ratio is seen at 31.9%, indicating comfortable supply levels

 

Brazil Group Pushes for Higher Biodiesel Blend Due to Iran War

Brazilian industries are asking the government to elevate the country’s biodiesel blend mandate to 16% before the end of March, producers’ group Aprobio says in a Thursday note.

• That’s as Brazil relies on diesel imports and the US-Israeli war on Iran represents a risk for rising costs, Aprobio says
• The current blending mandate is 15%
• Groups of agribusiness-backed legislators also asked for a mandate increase, arguing in a Wednesday statement that a 16% biodiesel blend would protect the country against international instability
• NOTE: Brazilian legislation approved in 2024 determined that biodiesel mandates should rise gradually until 2030, but a final decision still depends on analysis by the country’s National Energy Policy Council

 

Global Food-Price Index Sees First Gain In Five Months: FAO

Global food prices rose in February, the first time in five months, according to an index of food-commodity costs from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. The gain was driven by higher cereal, meat and vegetable oil prices.

• The FAO food index rose 0.9% from its revised January level, after five consecutive months of decline
• Vegetable oil index rose to the highest since June 2022, driven by higher prices of palm, soy and rapeseed oils which have more than offset lower sunflower oil quotations
  • Soyoil prices in particular increased on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the US
• Dairy index fell 1.2%, extending a downward trend that began in July 2025
  • The decline was fueled by improved milk availability, softer demand from key export markets and intensified international competition
• Grains index rose 1.1%, but still below levels a year earlier
  • World wheat prices rose by 1.8% in February, underpinned by reports of frost and heightened winterkill risks in parts of Europe and the US
  • Tensions in the Black Sea also contributed to the increase
  • Rice index rose 0.4%, supported by demand for basmati and Japonica varieties
• Meat index rose 0.8%, led by higher world bovine and ovine meat prices
  • Bovine meat prices in particular climbed to a new record high
• Sugar index declined by 4.1%, reaching its lowest level since October 2020
  • Expectations of ample global supplies in the current season continued to exert downward pressure on world sugar prices

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 579k tons in the week ending Feb. 28 from 500k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 10% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 23.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $23.06 per short ton, a decline of $1.68 from the previous week

 

THE ODDS OF EL NIÑO DEVELOPMENT BY JUNE-AUGUST ARE INCREASING, THOUGH A STRONG EVENT THIS YEAR IS STILL UNLIKELY

What to Watch:

• La Niña conditions are on the cusp of dissipation as the Pacific warms beneath the surface
• Persistent support from a major indicator and the recent flip in another have tilted the odds in favor of El Niño development by June-August
• Drought risks could be centered in Asia during June-August, though heat impacts may extend to a few other areas

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.