Global Ag News For March 27.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Trump to announce actions to help US farmers on Friday

President Donald Trump on Thursday said his administration will announce actions to help U.S. farmers on Friday, as the White House prepares to host hundreds of farmers, ranchers and executives for an event highlighting the agricultural sector.

The move comes as the administration is expected to release long-awaited biofuel blending quotas under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a policy closely watched by corn growers, ethanol producers and oil refiners that dictates how much renewable fuel must be mixed into the nation’s gasoline and diesel supply.

Reuters reported that the Trump administration will release its 2026-27 biofuel blending volume obligations this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The rule will not differ materially from volumes proposed by the EPA prior to the onset of the Iran war, the sources said.

Trump, speaking to reporters at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, said U.S. farmers had been mistreated by some countries and touted the multibillion-dollar bailout farmers received to help offset losses related to tariffs.

The biofuel decision ‌comes ⁠at a fraught moment for both the oil and farm sectors, with the White House balancing pressure from refiners worried about gasoline prices and farmers counting on stronger biofuel demand to support crop markets.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 26 1/2 in HRW, up 1/6 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal down $5.50; Soyoil up 2.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 50 1/4 in HRW, up 1/3 in HRS; Corn is up 20 3/4; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 6.43.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 20.2% in SRW, up 22.9% in HRW, up 12.4% in HRS; Corn is up 6.6%; Soybeans up 14.2%; Soymeal up 9.5%; Soyoil up 42.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 36 yuan; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 92; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.03%) at 4630.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 213 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 26 were: SRW Wheat up 2,130 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,090, Corn up 6,091, Soybeans up 6,257, Soymeal up 542, Soyoil up 3,512.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures continue across much of the U.S. over the next 10-days, while wet conditions persist in the Plains and Northwest’s winter wheat areas.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures with wet spells will persist across the southern Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s South/Center West turn dry, and wet spells remains confined to the Southeast and Northeast.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will see near normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with wet spells continue across Germany and Poland.
• ASIA: Asia will remain mostly dry, while occasional wet spells are expected across the central and northern wheat‑growing regions of China and north India.
• AUSTRALIA: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is causing major disruptions along Western Australia’s north and northwest coast.
• TELECONNECTIONS: MJO Phase 8 is forecast to bring wet conditions across South America and Africa through first half of April.

 

HEAT RISKS SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS WINTER WHEAT BELTS, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS WET

Weather Anomaly Severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day  timeframe: GFS Ens

Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 15

Model Change (from previous update): Heat risks for Plains

Significant weather anomalies and crop  impact:

• Warm temperatures (3–11 °F above normal) are expected across the U.S. winter wheat regions over the next 15 days, posing heat risks to developing crops.
• Wet spells (10–100 mm above normal) will be confined to the Northern and Central Plains, the Northwest, and the Midwest wheat-growing regions, while the rest of the U.S. is expected to experience dry conditions.
• Wet spells support winter wheat development across the Northern and Central Plains, as well as the Northwest and Midwest wheat belts.

 

Northern Plains: A front is moving through on Thursday with a few showers and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

Central/Southern Plains: A strong front will move through on Thursday and Friday with a few showers and a round of cooler air. Temperatures will rise again next week, though. Precipitation has been very limited lately, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which will promote scattered showers, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

Midwest: A stronger front will move through on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers, some of which could be severe. The colder air will be very brief, however. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought as spring planting starts in some areas.

Delta: Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

Brazil: Scattered showers continue for the next couple of days, but those showers will thin out by this weekend and will likely be more isolated through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

Argentina: More showers will be possible Friday and over the weekend with some additional showers south next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn and the beginning of soybeans, or heading toward maturity. Only a shrinking fraction of the crop can still benefit from rainfall. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

Europe: A system continues into the southeast through the weekend, producing beneficial scattered showers. A few fronts will move through the northwest with showers this weekend into early next week as well. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

Black Sea: Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. A system will spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

 

The player sheet for 3/26 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. Purchases were initially reported at around $272 a metric ton cost and freight (c&f) included, they said. The size of the purchase in tonnage terms was not initially clear, but some initial estimates put the purchase at several hundred thousand metric tons. Algeria’s purchases are optional origin but traders expected the Black Sea region, especially Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, to be a substantial source for the purchase.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Wednesday purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. The wheat was purchased at an estimated $276.00 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge. Seller was believed to be trading house Cargill.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 31.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending March 19

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 263k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 429k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending March 19

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14.1k tons of the 40.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

EU forecasts smaller soft wheat crop, higher exports in 2026/27

The European Commission on Thursday forecast that usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, would fall to 125.9 million metric tons in 2026/27 from 134.2 million this season.

• Soft wheat is the most-produced cereal in the EU. Other crop forecasters also anticipate a drop in EU wheat output next season after very strong yields in last summer’s harvest.
• In first supply and demand projections for next season, the Commission forecast EU 2026/27 soft wheat exports at 30.0 million tons, up from 28.0 million expected in 2025/26, and EU soft wheat ending stocks at 11.0 million tons, against 14.7 million anticipated this season.
• The forecast for 2025/26 soft wheat exports was revised down from 28.5 million in the Commission’s previous outlook at the start of March.
• In other cereals, the Commission forecast usable production of barley in the EU in 2026/27 at 54.7 million tons, down from 55.7 million in 2025/26.
• EU maize (corn) output was projected at 61.2 million tons against 58.1 million this season, while EU maize imports were pegged at 19.3 million tons against 18.8 million.
• For rapeseed, the EU’s most-produced oilseed, the Commission projected production in 2026/27 at 19.9 million tons, down from 20.1 million this season.

 

Meatpacker JBS sees higher corn costs in 2026, bearish soy meal outlook

Brazil’s JBS JBS.N, the world’s largest meatpacker, expects corn costs to rise in 2026 amid lower global stocks and solid demand, while the soybean meal outlook is bearish, CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said during an earnings call on Thursday.

• Higher oil prices are expected to support corn by boosting ethanol demand in the United States and Brazil, two major producers of the biofuel, Tomazoni said.
• In the U.S., soybean area is expected to expand at the expense of corn acreage, adding to upward pressure on corn prices.
• Brazil’s second corn crop, which accounts for most of the country’s annual output, faces climate risk depending on April and May rains.
• The outlook for soybean meal is bearish due to large supply and tight margins in China’s pork industry, Tomazoni said.
• Corn and soy meal, both used as animal feed, account for a significant share of JBS’ costs.
• JBS reported a near-flat fourth-quarter net profit on Wednesday, as record revenue was offset by tighter margins.

 

India’s 2026 wheat harvest seen higher, but below estimates as rains, hail hit crop

India’s wheat harvest is expected to rise in 2026 from a year earlier but fall short of initial estimates after unseasonal rains and hailstorms hit the maturing crop, trade and industry officials said.

India, the world’s biggest wheat producer after China, grows a single annual crop, sown in October-November and harvested in March and April. In recent years, late-February and early-March heat has tended to cut yields.

After years of weak output, production rebounded in 2025 on favourable weather, but a late-February heat spike again this year raised concerns.

“Production will be higher than last year but below our earlier projections,” Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, told Reuters.

The government has forecast this year’s wheat output at a record 120.21 million metric tons, while the flour millers’ body pegged production at 115 million tons.

“We now expect the crop to come in at 113.5–114 million tons, lower than our previous estimate of 115 million tons, but still comfortably above our estimate for last year’s crop of 109.5–110 million tons,” Chitlangia said.

In recent years, the flour millers’ body has released its own estimates, which have consistently been more conservative than government forecasts that traders say overestimate production.

Unlike rice, India’s wheat inventories remain relatively modest. Last year’s bumper harvest helped quell speculation about potential imports of wheat.

 

South Africa Raises 2026 Corn-Crop Estimate 2.4%

The Crop Estimates Committee projects the total commercial corn crop for 2026 at 16.5 million tons, 2.4% more than its prior forecast, it says in an emailed statement outlining its second projection for the harvest.

• That’s below the 16.7 million tons produced in 2025
• The production forecast for white corn is 8.76 million tons, a 2.9% increase from the prior estimate and more than the 8.45 million tons harvested last year
• The yellow-corn output estimate is 7.75 million tons, 1.8% more than the prior projection and less than the 8.2 million tons produced in 2025

 

Morocco Wheat Harvest Seen Doubling This Year to 7M Tons: Group

Wheat harvest is projected to rise from 3.4m tons during last year’s farming season, Abdelkader Alaoui, chairman of National Millers Confederation, tells Bloomberg by phone.

• Overall grains harvest is seen reaching 9m tons versus 4.4m tons the previous campaign, helped by improved weather, abundant rainfall
  • Soft wheat harvest is set to increase to 6m tons versus 2.4m tons
  • Barley harvest is projected to rise to 2m tons, durum wheat unchanged at 1m tons
• Moroccan millers don’t plan to boost imports to build up inventories amid the Iran war
  • “We would do that only if we are not so sure about the upcoming harvest. This time however, we will rely on the bumper harvest we expect this year to boost our inventories”

 

US to Allow Extra 80,000 Metric Tons of Argentine Beef Imports

The US will allow an additional 80,000 metric tons of beef imports from Argentina, according to a notice posted by Customs and Border Protection.

• The quota is in effect from February 13 through December 31

 

JBS Workers Extend Strike at Major US Beef Plant Into Third Week

Members of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 will extend a strike at the JBS-owned Swift Beef Company plant in Greeley, Colorado, the union said Thursday in a press release.

• The company has declined to meet and bargain, according to the union
• NOTE: Roughly 3,800 workers at the plant began a strike over unfair labor practices in mid-March
• JBS didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment outside of normal business hours

 

US Beef Market in Early 2026 Most Challenging in Long Time: JBS

US beef market during Jan. and Feb. was probably “the most challenging in a very long time,” JBS USA CEO Wesley Batista Filho says during earnings call.

• Volatility in cattle, beef prices also higher than usual
• JBS focusing on organic growth as company does not see many opportunities on acquisitions front, CFO Guilherme Cavalcanti says
• JBS is “confident” of its ability to deliver results for Brazil beef that are in line with the past year, CEO Gilberto Tomazoni says
• The fulfillment of Brazil’s Chinese beef quota in the second half of the year could drive cattle prices down, Tomazoni says
  • Australia beef unit not as challenged by China quotas
    • That’s as Australian meatpackers can access other key Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea
  • Some countries may not be able to fulfill their own quotas: Tomazoni

 

Malaysia Seeks New Fertilizer Sources as Iran War Spurs Crunch

Malaysia has mobilized “aggressive efforts” to expand its fertilizer import sources and secure supplies as the Middle East war disrupts shipping and drives up raw material costs, according to the Plantation and Commodities Ministry.

• The government will expand fertilizer imports through negotiations with existing and new supplier countries, Minister Noraini Ahmad said in a statement
• The country also seeks to “activate alternative supply channels within three to six months; ensure supply prices remain competitive to avoid pressure on industry players”
  • “This measure aims to reduce dependence on a single source and increase the resilience of the country’s supply chain,” Noraini said
• Malaysia imports 4 to 5 million tons of fertilizers annually, with a market value of more than 5 billion ringgit ($1.25 billion)
• The government is also engaging with local fertilizer producers to prioritize supply for the domestic market, stabilize prices through local production, and boost the medium-term capacity of the fertilizer industry
  • The priority is to ensure adequate fertilizer supplies, protect smallholders, and ensure the country’s agri-commodity sector remains resilient amid global challenges
• Malaysia will continue to monitor global developments and “take proactive measures” to safeguard the country’s interests

 

Russia lacks capacity to ramp up fertilizer exports, industry lobby says

Russia does not have any free capacity to produce more fertilisers amid the global supply crunch caused by the war in Iran, the head of a lobby group for the industry was quoted by TASS news agency as saying on Thursday.

One-third of global trade in fertilisers passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been shut since the Iran conflict began. Russia, a major producer and exporter, sees supplies for the domestic market as a priority.

Andrei Guryev, head of the industry lobby and former CEO of major producer PhosAgro, said that Russian companies were receiving queries from other countries about increasing exports amid the crunch.

“In fact, the plants are currently operating at near-full capacity,” Guryev said.

Russia, which controls up to 40% of the global trade in ammonium nitrate, said on Tuesday it will suspend exports of the fertilizer until April 21 to ensure sufficient supply during the spring planting season.

Russia is shipping fertilisers to its BRICS partners India and Brazil, as well as to other emerging economies, including a number of African countries, but also to the U.S. and the EU.

Official statistics showed that Russia increased fertiliser production by 4% to 5.5 million tons in February, just before Ukrainian drones hit Acron’s Dorogobuzh plant in western Russia, which makes about 5% of Russian fertilisers.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 621k tons in the week ending March 21 from 478k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 36.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 15.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $17.88 per short ton, a decline of $1.36 from the previous week

 

 

 

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