Global Ag News for Mar 27.24

TOP HEADLINES

Sugar, Soy Among Top Crop Products Handled at Port of Baltimore

Sugar, soybeans, and grain products such as corn and wheat, as well as coffee, are among the top agricultural products handled at the Port of Baltimore, according to Mike Steenhoek, the executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.

The port handled more than 170,000 metric tons of soybean imports via container in 2020, Steenhoek wrote, adding that while Baltimore “is not a significant port region for soybeans and grain, it obviously is a significant resource for the broader economy.”

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil down 0.72.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 3/4 in SRW, down 16 1/2 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil up 0.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 36 1/2 in SRW, down 13 1/4 in HRW, down 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 52; Soymeal up $10.40; Soyoil up 2.49.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.0% in SRW, down 10.6% in HRW, down 10.6% in HRS; Corn is down 9.1%; Soybeans down 7.8%; Soymeal down 12.0%; Soyoil down 0.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 31 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil down 124; Palm oil down 114; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 90. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 90 ringgit (-2.12%) at 4146.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 26 were: SRW Wheat up 852 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,564, Corn up 2,573, Soybeans up 11,057, Soymeal down 4,647, Soyoil up 1,312.

Brazil: A front settled into central Brazil over the weekend where it produced good showers for safrinha corn. The front will remain stalled almost all week, promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited. At the same time, areas to the south will be much drier and have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least some showers.

Argentina: Outside of a small disturbance with a few showers for southern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, it should be dry this week, which is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but will allow for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend, which looks to start up a more active week of weather.

Europe: A big storm will stay close to the UK this week, sending several waves of showers through Europe throughout this week and probably portions of next week as well. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

Black Sea: A system is moving through Tuesday with some areas of showers, but won’t be widespread and some areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, which brings in warm air instead. That favors developing winter wheat, but also dries out soils which are going to hope for a slightly more active period next week.

Australia: A front continues to bring showers to Queensland for the next few days. Drier weather elsewhere is fine for harvesting cotton and sorghum, but not for building in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins in mid-April. However, the ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

Northern Plains: Cold air and a storm system led to a burst of snow moving into the region over the weekend and Monday, which also brought moderate winds that produced some blizzard conditions in spots as well. Some additional showers may move through later this week and weekend, but models are not consistent with any of the details to the system moving through. Though they will waffle around, temperatures should remain on the colder side of normal.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought widespread precipitation to the region Sunday and Monday, including some moderate snow and blizzard conditions. Cold air will be in the region for a few days, which will bring about some 10s through much of HRW territory that could cause damage Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. The cold relents by late week with more showers being possible late week and weekend before another system goes through early next week. Models are backing away from a meaningful precipitation producer for southwestern areas with this last storm, but potential is still there.

Midwest: A big system continues to move through the region Tuesday with areas of showers and thunderstorms and heavy snow in the northwest. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Cold air will fill in behind the storm this week with the coldest air over the deeper snow pack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up ahead of the next disturbance later this week. Some showers may fall because of that system this weekend. Another system may bring scattered showers and a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April. The precipitation from the more active pattern should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting.

Delta: A cold front brought a line of showers and thunderstorms through the region on Monday with heavy rain. Another storm will move through early next week with more rainfall. Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though.

The player sheet for 3/26 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 134,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday.
• RICE SALE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 77,774 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States in an international tender for about 100,800 tons which closed on March 21.
• CORN SALES: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• NO PURCHASE IN FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Tuesday
• PRICE UPDATE IN RICE TENDER: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy about 300,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $609 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for rice sourced from Vietnam.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from South America or South Africa only, European traders said on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Monday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival May 1-15 and/or May 16-30. The deadline for offers is March 28.
• RAW CANE SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC,) on Monday extended the deadline for offers in its latest sugar tender for 50,000 metric tons of raw cane sugar to March 30, from a previous deadline of March 23. GASC said it is seeking offers that will remain valid until April 1 and added shipment periods in June and/or July and/or August.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 22 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.045m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.053m bbl vs 26.009m a week ago

Ethanol, Premium Gas, Biofuel Could be Impacted by Baltimore Bridge Disaster — OPIS

Ethanol availability is the primary concern among suppliers and marketers in Baltimore in the wake of the overnight collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge. A large container ship struck one of the supports of the bridge around 1:30 a.m. ET, with several vehicles plunging into the water.

Most of the refined products that arrive in the Baltimore area do so by virtue of Colonial Pipeline, so inventories of RBOB and CBOB as well as ultra-low sulfur diesel do not look to be a problem. However, the region is typically supplied with barges of ethanol that move to the port and there is no word on when barge traffic can be resumed.

While the port is a busy hub for container vessels and chemicals, there is only the occasional offshore cargo of fuel that moves into the area. Observers do note, however, that barges of high RVP gasoline can be shipped from other Northeastern locations for high-volume buyers that can move winter material through their systems this time of year, instead of relying on much more expensive summer gas.

A list of quantities of items moved into the port in the last 12 months shows brisk arrival rates of urea ammonium nitrate as well as roofing flux for asphalt. However, chemicals dwarf quantities of asphalt and biodiesel. Some finished gasoline shows up, and observers believe the barrels are high octane material moved from Sewaren, N.J., or Delaware City, Del.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 2% Y/y in Season Through March 23

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 were at 22.8m tons by March 23, compared with 23.2m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco with 3.32m tons, Nigeria at 2.17m tons, Algeria with 2.04m tons
• Barley exports were at 4.19m tons, down 12% y/y
• Corn imports were at 13.2m tons, down 38% y/y
• Data for Ireland missing as of June 2023; import figures for Bulgaria available until Jan. 10, 2024, while similar figures for Hungary are available until Nov. 27, 2023

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.49 Million Tns In March Versus 14.01 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.49 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 14.01 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.9 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.13 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 140,556 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 134,430 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 788,326 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 714,894 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Brazil 2023/2024 Total Corn Crop Seen At 119.1 Million Tns Versus 121.5 Million Tns In Previous Forecast – Hedgepoint

BRAZIL 2023/2024 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 119.1 MILLION TNS VERSUS 121.5 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – HEDGEPOINT

THP EXPECTS CPO PRICES TO REMAIN FIRM MOVING FORWARD

TH Plantations Bhd (THP) expects the crude palm oil (CPO) prices to remain firm moving forward due to the tightness in supply and demand.

In its 2023 annual report released today, its chairman Datuk Dr Ahmad Kushairi Din said the impact of the El Nino phenomenon is expected to be felt in 2024, with rain deficits resulting in lower fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production.

“Demand, following from 2023, is anticipated to remain robust in 2024, thanks to the strong demand for food and biodiesel,” he said.

While inflationary pressures have somewhat eased for global economies, THP chief executive officer Mohamed Zainurin Mohamed Zain said there remains headwinds that could slow down growth, such as a China slowdown due to stress in the real estate sector.

“Commodity prices may experience increased volatility again due to climate and geopolitical shocks. Moreover, the impending impact of the El Nino is expected in 2024 and could weigh down on harvests and production, thus putting supply at risks,” he said.

As demand is likely to grow 3.0 to 4.0 per cent in 2024, similar to 2023, Mohamed Zainurin said the supply-demand constraints will put CPO prices on a tight rope too.

“Against this backdrop and the weak ringgit against the US dollar, CPO prices are forecast to range between RM3,500 and RM4,000 per tonne in 2024, versus the 2023 average price of RM3,809.50 per tonne,” he said.

To capitalise on the positive industry outlook, he said THP will continue to focus on operational efficiency to enhance yields and profitability further through the rehabilitation of certain plantation assets.

“Concurrently, we are open to the possibility of unlocking the value of our plantations as well as continuing our mechanisation initiatives in 2024, including the option of a leasing programme for all infield collection machines.

“Upon the conclusion of the transformation phase and to cap off FY2023, THP Group has proceeded to map out the next framework known as THP Group’s 5-year Strategic Business Plan (2024-2028), or AL-Falah 22/22, which would reinvent THP Group for the future,” he said.

 

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