Global Ag News for June 21.24

TOP HEADLINES

NOAA Pacific Ocean Analytics Support Ideas of La Nina Holding Off Until Later in Summer

Major Pacific Ocean measurements still indicate La Nina has not elbowed its way onto the long-range ocean temperature and barometric pressure scene just yet.

As the 2024 United States corn crop moves toward the all-important pollination time frame, a key Pacific Ocean temperature reading, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), goes along with other perspectives in the weather community which have emphasized the prospects of La Nina development holding off until later this summer, after most pollination has occurred.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil down 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 40 1/2 in SRW, down 36 3/4 in HRW, down 35 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/2; Soybeans down 31 3/4; Soymeal down $12.70; Soyoil up 0.22.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 111 1/2 in SRW, down 123 3/4 in HRW, down 119 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 66 1/4; Soymeal down $18.50; Soyoil down 1.86.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.7% in SRW, down 7.5% in HRW, down 14.0% in HRS; Corn is down 6.5%; Soybeans down 10.1%; Soymeal down 6.6%; Soyoil down 8.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal down 24; Soyoil down 46; Palm oil down 14; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 59. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 59 ringgit (-1.49%) at 3900.

There were changes in registrations (-110 Soybeans). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 229 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 20 were: SRW Wheat up 9,243 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,543, Corn up 5,772, Soybeans down 12,220, Soymeal up 2,128, Soyoil down 728.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday. Outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Saturday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers north Monday. Temperatures near above normal Friday-Monday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

 

The player sheet for 6/20 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,500 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 84,667 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late Wednesday.
  • FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in Thailand is believed to have purchased at about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat sourced from Ukraine in an international tender on Wednesday
  • SOYMEAL PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
  • RICE IMPORTS: The Philippines plans to import 363,697 metric tonnes of rice this year to augment its buffer stock, the country’s farm ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 104,150 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
  • CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued a tender to purchase 52,000 to 69,000 metric tons of corn sourced from South America or South Africa
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

world map in blue

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending June 13.

  • Corn est. range 700k – 1,300k tons, with avg of 1,000k
  • Soybean est. range 400k – 900k tons, with avg of 588k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 99.9% to 23.617M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 23.127 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.057m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.055m

 

China’s Cofco Sells Chicago’s Last Grain Terminal to Growmark

Cofco International Ltd., the trading arm of China’s largest food company, agreed to sell its Chicago grain terminal to agricultural cooperative Growmark Inc.

The facility is the last of its kind still operating in the city that’s home to the Chicago Board of Trade, where benchmarks for wheat, corn and soybeans trade. Cofco also agreed to purchase Growmark’s minority stake in a transloading facility elsewhere in Illinois.

The deal comes after Cofco offloaded its Milwaukee facility in the neighboring state of Wisconsin last year. It also follows the company’s decision to relocate from downtown Chicago to the suburbs due to high costs and persistent crime, a move expected later this year.

“We plan to continue investing in our US business, and we intend to pursue additional opportunities focused on supporting our US Gulf and Pacific Northwest export strategy,” Jerry Shi, chief operating officer for grains and oilseeds at Cofco in North America, said in a statement.

Chicago once was one of the world’s top grain ports, with the Windy City serving as a delivery point for farms in the Midwest. But with more storage built both on farms and in importing nations, Cofco’s elevator is the only large terminal that’s still operating in the city.

Cofco entered the US market by acquiring Dutch grains trader Nidera BV, which owned the elevator. The terminal in the southern part of the city has capacity of 11.5 million bushels and is a delivery point for commodities traded on the CBOT, owned by CME Group Inc.

The transloading facility Cofco purchased is located in Cahokia and has access to all seven of North America’s main railroads, according to the statement. It has access to the Mississippi River via the St. Louis Harbor.

 

New Russian Grain Export Duties to Come Into Effect July 1: IFX

Adjusted duties on Russian grain exports will come into effect from July 1, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

  • Agriculture Ministry submitted a draft decree to the government, expects the approval by July 1
  • Agriculture Ministry proposed to increase the base prices for calculation of export duties on wheat, barley and corn by RUB 1,000

 

French Corn Plantings Nearly Complete; Wheat Conditions Steady

Corn plantings stood at 99% complete during the last week, advancing steadily toward five-year average of 100%, according to FranceAgriMer data posted Friday.

  • Soft-wheat conditions were steady at 62% but remain well below this time last year
  • NOTE: France just capped its fourth wettest spring on record, and weather service Meteo France has warned of “violent” storms this weekend, with heavy rainfalls

 

China’s communist party allocates $19 mln for flood, drought relief

China’s communist party has allocated a special fund of 138 million yuan ($19.01 million) to 11 provinces and regions to help flood and drought relief work, state media Xinhua said on Friday.

The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Water Resources have already allocated 916 million yuan for a disaster relief fund to support provinces hit by drought and floods. The 138 million yuan was allocated by the organization department of the party’s central committee, Xinhua said.

 

US generated more renewable blending credits in May, EPA says

The United States generated more renewable fuel blending credits in May versus the month prior, data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) showed on Thursday.

About 1.27 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated last month, up from 1.20 billion in April, according to the data.

Biodiesel (D4) blending credits generated in May fell to about 661 million from about 804 million in the month prior, according to the data.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Rose 0.6% Y/y in May

Commercial beef and pork production rose to 4.62b pounds in May, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

  • Beef production up 0.9% y/y to 2.33b pounds
  • May cattle slaughter totaled 2.75m head, a 3.3% decline from a year ago
    • Avg live weight rose by 46 pounds from last year to 1,395 pounds
  • Pork production up 0.3% y/y to 2.28b pounds
  • Hog slaughter unchanged y/y at 10,583m head
    • Avg live weight was 290 pounds vs 289 pounds a year ago

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending June 18: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending June 18, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

  • Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought rose to 3% vs 2% in the previous week
  • Soybean area in drought increased by a percentage point to 2%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 530k tons in the week ending June 15 from 366k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 6.1% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments up 81.5% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $8.66 per short ton, a decline of $0.20 from the previous week

 

 

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