Global Ag News for June 15

Agricultural Rally Sends CoBank’s Loans Surging Most Since 2008

Wheat prices overnight are down 13 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.34; Soyoil up 0.67.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 19 3/4 in SRW, down 20 3/4 in HRW, down 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 36; Soybeans down 47; Soymeal down $1.39; Soyoil down 1.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 28 1/4; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal down $11.90; Soyoil up 3.75.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 124 yuan ; Soymeal down 131; Soyoil down 502; Palm oil down 540; Corn down 50 — Malasyian Palm is up 206. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 206 ringgit (+6.10%) at 3581 advancing after tumbling almost 20% in six days, with concerns about production due to a labor shortage in Malaysia prompting some investors to bet on a new rally in prices.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/14 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 21,000 corn, sellers of 13,500 soybeans, sellers of 6,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 14 were: SRW Wheat down 4,185 contracts, HRW Wheat down 447, Corn down 8,909, Soybeans down 12,686, Soymeal down 1,464, Soyoil down 5,840.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 868 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender on Monday to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Aug. 21-31 for payment at sight.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan Seeks to Buy 207,472 Tons of Milling Wheat

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
• WHEAT BRAN TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 20,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 25, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 16.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued international tenders to buy a total 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat

U.S. Inspected 1.544m Tons of Corn for Export, 128k of Soybean

In week ending June 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 128k tons vs 239k the previous wk, 435k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,544k tons vs 1,427k the previous wk, 922k a yr ago
• Wheat: 480k tons vs 494k the previous wk, 564k a yr ago

German Wheat Crop Estimate Raised to 23m Tons, Rapeseed Up: DRV

Outlook for this year’s German wheat harvest seen at 23m tons, compared with May estimate of 22.7m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said in an emailed statement.

• Barley crop estimate raised to 10.7m tons, versus 10.6m tons
• Corn production estimate little changed at 3.8m tons
• Rapeseed harvest seen at 3.7m tons, up from 3.6m tons
• Next two to three weeks are crucial for plant development, with wheat yet to reach the grain-filling stage
• South and west Germany have sufficient soil moisture, while north and east are starting to turn dry
• Harvests likely to begin in early July, about a week behind average, with winter barley the first crop collected
• If harvests are delayed, there could be some local supply problems as reserves from last year’s harvest are running low

EU Soft-Wheat Exports at 24.9m Tons in Season Through June 13

Shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 24.9m tons as of June 13, versus 33.9m tons in the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• NOTE: Trade data included for France is as of June 2, the agency says
• Top destinations are Algeria (5.56m tons), Morocco (2.25m tons) and Nigeria (2.17m tons)
• EU barley exports totaled 7.06m tons, slightly behind the prior year
• EU corn imports totaled 13.9m tons, versus 19.1m tons a year earlier

Brazil Soy Crushing Seen Shrinking 0.7% y/y in 2021: Abiove

Industry may process 46.5m tons of the oilseed versus 46.8m tons in 2020, Brazilian soybean processors group Abiove says in email statement.

• Reduction is due to lower domestic oil demand amid a temporary cut in biodiesel use as decided by government in recent auctions
• Soybean-oil exports seen rising 8% y/y to 1.2m tons in 2021
  • It is a 20% increase from previous estimate from May 13
• Abiove raised its estimate for Brazil soybean exports by 0.1% to 85.7m tons

UkrAgroConsult Raises Russia Wheat Harvest, Export Estimates

Russia’s wheat harvest for the 2021-22 season is now seen at 81.1m tons, up from a May estimate for 78.5m tons, Kyiv-based researcher UkrAgroConsult says in a report.

• Yield prospects for winter-wheat, winter-barley and corn are improving due to good conditions in the Southern federal district
• Wheat acreage estimate also slightly higher based on the latest planting progress reports
• Wheat export estimate raised to 40m tons, from 37.7m tons in May
  • That compares to 38m tons for the 2020-21 season

Brazil’s Bunge Resumes Wheat Milling in Brasilia Facility

Unit, whose operations were halted in 2018, will process 300 metric tons per day producing flour and wheat-meal to industrial, domestic and baking markets in Center-West and North regions, company says in statement.

• Brazil’s largest wheat processor, Bunge, operates seven units with capacity for 1 million tons of wheat per year
• Operations were resumed earlier this month

Palm Oil Poised for Sharp Rebound After Dramatic Selloff: Mistry

• Prices to climb by 200-250 ringgit before easing around August
• Malaysian palm oil output facing obstacles from labor shortage

Palm oil is set for a “very quick, very sharp, and very justified” recovery after a rumor-fueled selloff that dragged the world’s most-consumed edible oil to multi-month lows, said veteran analyst Dorab Mistry.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur have already bottomed and may now climb by 200-250 ringgit a ton, Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., said at a UOB Kay Hian Securities webinar Tuesday. That’s because the price slump was triggered by rumors about U.S. biodiesel mandates, and does not justify current levels of stockpiles, production, as well as thin pipelines in consuming markets, he said.

India’s import of palm oils rises 48% to 7,69,602 tonne in May: SEA – Accord Fintech (India)

Industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said India’s import of palm oils rose by 48 per cent to 7,69,602 tonne in May this year on higher shipments of crude palm oil. India, the world’s leading vegetable oil buyer, had imported 4,00,506 tonne palm oils in May 2020. The country’s total vegetable oil imports rose by 68 per cent to Rs 12.49 lakh tonne in May this year compared to 7.43 lakh tonne in the year-ago period. The share of palm oil is more than 60 per cent of the country’s total vegetable oil imports.

According to SEA, vegetable oil imports in May rose by 19 per cent when compared with the previous month due to lower stock in pipeline and lesser import during earlier months and increase in demand after lifting of the lockdown. Imports are higher this time when compared to the year-ago period as there was a complete lockdown which had affected the import during May 2020, it said. Among palm oil products, import of crude palm oil (CPO) rose 53 per cent to Rs 7.55 lakh tonne in May this year from 3.60 lakh tonne in the year-ago period.

Palm Oil Output at Risk as Virus Lockdown Worsens Labor Shortage

• Malaysia’s Covid resurgence delays hiring of palm oil laborers
• Production in the second half may disappoint initial estimates

A resurgence of Covid-19 infections in No. 2 palm oil grower Malaysia is set to exacerbate a labor shortage and curb production of the world’s most-consumed cooking oil.

The Southeast Asian country, which announced it will extend the first phase of its national lockdown to the end of June, has shuttered non-essential industries and is expected to prolong a freeze on the recruitment of foreign workers as it battles with a third wave of the pandemic.

“The crux of the issue is the labor shortage. We have lost of about 20% to 30% of our potential production because of this,” according to Nageeb Wahab, chief executive at the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a growers’ group that represents 40% of palm plantations by area. “That would have gone up more this year especially among smallholders,” he said in an interview.

That means Malaysian palm oil planters may now miss estimates for yields to rebound in the second half, which were made due to the annual seasonal high cycle that typically begins in July, and the initial assumption that restrictions on workers’ intake would have been eased. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board last week reported January-May production is about 6% smaller than a year ago.

Malaysia’s June 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 652,770 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments fall 6.2% m/m from 695,764 tons exported during May 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Tuesday.

Malaysia Targets Full Rollout of B20 Biodiesel Plan by End-2022

Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, expects its B20 biofuel plan to be implemented nationwide by the end of 2022, according to Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali.

Agricultural Rally Sends CoBank’s Loans Surging Most Since 2008

• Agricultural loans grew by $6 billion since November: CEO
• Farmers will spend money on tractors, renting more land

CoBank ACB’s agricultural loan book has swelled by the most since the financial crisis as the industry borrows more to cover higher hedging costs during the biggest surge in crop prices since 2012.

The U.S. cooperative bank has boosted its agricultural loan portfolio by 5% since November, lending out an additional $6 billion to the farming industry in the period, according to Chief Executive Officer Tom Halverson.

CPO MAY HIT RM3,800 PER TONNE IN Q3, Q4 2021- OCBC

Crude palm oil (CPO) price may hit RM3,800 per tonne in the third (Q3) and fourth quarters of 2021, leading to an average price of RM3,678 per tonne this year for the commodity, said OCBC Bank.

The bank’s commodity outlook report for 2021, released today, showed that CPO touched RM3,612 per tonne in Q1 2021, and is anticipated to reach RM3,500 per tonne in Q2 2021.

Economist Howie Lee said the bank expects the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s closing stock to trend below two million tonnes throughout the year, fuelled by supply disruptions due to Malaysia’s COVID-19 situation.