Global Ag News for June 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s soybean production costs outpace global competitors

Brazil’s soybean production costs exceed those of key competitors, Argentina and the United States. Brazilian farmers spend approximately $782 per hectare on soybean cultivation, compared to $665 in the US and $351 in Argentina, as reported by Itaú BBA—using an average exchange rate of R$5.15 for the 2024/25 harvest season.

The analysis by Itaú BBA estimates Brazilian costs using data on a typical farm in Mato Grosso provided by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA). For the US, the bank used figures from the state of Illinois, as calculated by the University of Illinois, and for Argentina, data from the central Zona Núcleo region, sourced from “Márgenes Agropecuarios.”

Argentina’s lower production costs are attributed to its more fertile soil and reduced pest and disease burdens, resulting in input costs for fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides that are four times lower than those in Brazil.

The study highlights that in Brazil, the average costs per hectare are distributed as follows: seeds at $129, fertilizers at $335, pesticides at $235, mechanization at $36, and labor at $44. Despite high investment in inputs, Brazil’s soybean productivity enhances its competitiveness on the global stage. Even with superior yields, however, Brazil remains the most expensive in terms of production costs.

Specifically, the average production cost in Brazil is $13.2 per bag, based on a yield of 60 bags per hectare. In contrast, Argentina’s costs are significantly lower at $7 per bag, with a yield of 50 bags per hectare. The United States follows with an average cost of $11.4 per bag and productivity of 58 bags per hectare during the 2024/25 harvest.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, down 25 in HRW, down 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $7.80; Soyoil down 0.22.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 71 in SRW, down 68 in HRW, down 63 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal up $3.80; Soyoil down 2.11.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.3% in SRW, down 0.2% in HRW, down 6.6% in HRS; Corn is down 4.0%; Soybeans down 8.4%; Soymeal down 4.5%; Soyoil down 9.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 54; Palm oil down 126; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 14. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.36%) at 3933.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 10 were: SRW Wheat up 7,807 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,042, Corn down 18,947, Soybeans down 9,627, Soymeal up 16,764, Soyoil up 1,791.

 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered shower Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest-West: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Midwest-East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/10 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Tuesday. No purchase was made of 40,000 tons of Canadian what also sought in the tender as prices were regarded as too high
• SOY IMPORTS: China imported 10.22 million metric tons of soybeans in May, customs data showed, below the levels of a year ago but more than April’s shipment volumes, as good crush margins supported demand for cheaper Brazilian beans.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 109,126 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 12.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.34m Tons of Corn for Export, 231k of Soybeans

In week ending June 6, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 231k tons vs 361k the previous wk, 148k a yr ago
• Wheat: 352k tons vs 427k the previous wk, 248k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,340k tons vs 1,416k the previous wk, 1,170k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 6

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 6 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 65k tons of the 231k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Grain trade association Coceral: forecasts 2024 EU/UK soft wheat production at 134.5 mln T

• GRAIN TRADE ASSOCIATION COCERAL FORECASTS 2024 EU + UK SOFT WHEAT PRODUCTION AT 134.5 MILLION T VERSUS 134.1 MILLION T IN MARCH
• COCERAL FORECASTS 2024 EU + UK BARLEY PRODUCTION AT 59.9 MILLION T VERSUS 61.2 MILLION T IN MARCH
• COCERAL FORECASTS 2024 EU + UK CORN PRODUCTION AT 64.8 MILLION T VERSUS 64.3 MILLION T IN MARCH
• COCERAL FORECASTS 2024 EU & UK RAPESEED PRODUCTION AT 19.4 MILLION T VERSUS 20.2 MILLION T IN MARCH

 

France Sees Winter-Barley Crop Falling About 11% Y/y: Ministry

France’s 2024 winter-barley crop is seen slumping 10.7% y/y to 8.6m tons, the agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.

• That remains 2.6% above the prior 5-year average
• Winter rapeseed output to drop 1.2% y/y to 4.2m tons y/y, though 11.5% above prior five-year average
• NOTE: Harvest of both crops will begin soon

PLANTINGS:

• Outlook for corn, soybean and sugar-beet plantings kept about steady from May
• Sunflower area cut slightly to 819k hectares
• Spring-barley planting estimate raised slightly to 515k hectares
  • That remains 14% below the prior five-year average
• “With cumulative rainfall 45% higher than average from March to May, as well as a deficit of 20% in sunshine and mild temperatures favoring foliar diseases, weather conditions of spring 2024 are generally unfavorable for major crops,” the report says

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 10.4% Done as of June 6: AgRural

Compares with 4.7% a week earlier and 2.2% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• That’s the fastest pace since 2013, when AgRural started its weekly data survey
• Mato Grosso and Parana keep leading the works among Center-South states

 

Strong soybean exports persist in South America although adverse weather affected production

LSEG agriculture research reduced Brazil soybean production to 150.1 million metric tons (MMT) due to excessive wetness in the south. However, the figure remained the second highest output in history. Argentina soybean production was estimated at 49.4 MMT, the highest since 2020. 2023/24 total production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay reached 210 MMT, compared to 197 MMT for the previous season. The increased supplies have boosted soybean exports, particularly in Argentina.

LSEG trade flows tracked 1.36 MMT of soybean shipments in Argentina in May. Accumulated exports since April totaled 1.94 MMT as of 9 June, a 3-year high. Total exports for the 2023/24 season (April-March) were estimated at 7.01 MMT, compared to 4.6 MMT by USDA’s May projection.

Brazil soybeans shipping pace was a bit slower than last year’s record high, totaling 48.13 MMT during February-May (vs 48.71 for last year). China accounted for 33.43 MMT of the exports, <1 MMT above last year. Other major buyers included Turkey (1.66 MMT), Thailand (1.19MMT), Spain (1.09 MMT), Mexico (1.04 MMT), the Netherlands (0.96 MMT), and Iran (0.91 MMT). Moving ahead, the Williams vessel line-up report (released on 07 June) showed that 12.47 MMT of soybeans had sailed or scheduled to sail in June, the second highest exports for the month. Current shipping pace and Brazilian soybean supplies indicate that 2023/24 Brazil soybean exports at 101.7 MMT, nearly identical to USDA’s May projection of 102 MMT.

In the U.S., however, sluggish soybean exports continued with only 1.29 MMT were tracked in May. Outstanding soybean sales (as of 30 May) were 3.42 MMT, above last year’s 2.79 MMT, but well below the previous years, indicating bearish outlooks for the rest of the season (June-August). We lowered 2023/24 U.S. soybean exports to 46.46 MMT.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Low supply in Brazil boosts values

Wheat prices have been moving up more significantly in the domestic market in this early June, influenced by low stocks in this offseason period. Not even the international price drops were able to limit increases.

According to data from Cepea, between May 31 and June 7, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) upped 0.71% in Paraná and 2.48% in Rio Grande do Sul; in Santa Catarina, values dropped 0.33%. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 2.57% in Paraná, 3.26% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.77% in São Paulo and 1.54% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased 1.12% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.316 on June 7.

Abroad, wheat quotations dropped last week because of the dollar valuation against several currencies.

BYPRODUCTS – From May 31 to June 7, values of wheat bran in bags moved up 0.77% and prices of the product in bulk upped 1%.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 657.13 thousand tons of wheat in May, 44.6% more than in April and 131.8% up compared to that in May/23. Exports totaled 55.2 thousand tons this month, below the amount verified in April/23 (362.85 thousand tons) and lower than in May (71.04 thousand tons).

 

Canada Farmers Saw Higher Canola Prices in Most Provinces in April

Prices received by Canadian farmers for Canola rose across most of the country in April, while prices for durum wheat continued to fall and other wheat varieties were mixed.

Monthly canola prices were up in all provinces except Quebec, Statistics Canada said Monday. Alberta logged the largest increase in April, with a rise of 7.7% after seven consecutive monthly price declines. Compared with a year earlier, canola prices fell in all provinces in April, led by a 23.3% drop in Ontario.

Farmers in both major durum wheat-producing provinces recorded a seventh straight month-over-month drop in prices, with a fall of 3.0% in Alberta and 1.9% in Saskatchewan in April, the data agency said. Prices were down at least 10.5% compared with a year earlier.

 

Russian grain exporters to focus on markets in Middle East, N. Africa

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture said Tuesday that the country’s grain exporters will shift their focus to key markets in the Middle East and North Africa, and strengthen relationships with India and China.

During a meeting led by Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut with grain exporters, it was unanimously agreed that Turkey’s import refusal would not affect Russia’s export capabilities, the ministry said. The consensus was that for the upcoming season, starting on July 1, Russia plans to reduce its grain supply to the global market to 60 million tons.

“In the current conditions, domestic exporters will focus on the key markets of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as on the development of relations with India and China, where there is progress in the supply of grain legumes and broad prospects for grain crops are opening up,” the ministry said.

The ministry also said that considering last year’s high yield, Russia aims to deliver up to 70 million tons of grains to the global markets, including 53 million tons of wheat, in the ongoing season, which concludes on June 30. Currently, one in every four wheat shipments on the global market originates from Russia.

The Turkish Ministry of Agriculture is suspending wheat imports from June 21 to Oct. 15 to support local producers as grain prices are expected to fall.

 

Russian wheat export prices snap six-week rise after Turkey halts imports

Russian wheat export prices ended six weeks of gains to fall last week along with global markets following Turkey’s decision to refuse wheat imports until mid-October.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late June was $242 per metric ton, ending the week down $6, according to the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $250-$253 a ton, down from $252-$255 a ton FOB.

“The impact of the ban is uncertain, but Turkey’s wheat imports are likely to drop even without restrictions,” Sovecon said in its weekly note.

“We may see a reduction in Turkey’s wheat import estimates in the new WASDE report, partially offsetting a smaller Russian crop figure.”

Turkey is one of the largest importers of Russian wheat.

“Russian wheat crop problems were largely unnoticed by the market”, the agency analysts noted.

Last week Sovecon cut its 2024 wheat crop forecast to 80.7 million metric tons.

Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said last week the ministry may adjust its 2024 grain harvest forecast of 132 million tons, including 86 million tons of wheat, due to drought in the southern, central regions of the country and the Volga region.

The weekly consensus forecast by the Rusgrain Union showed a 8.4% decline in the 2024 wheat crop to 79.5 million tons.

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 3% Above Normal as of June 10

India has so far received 36.5 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a norm of 35.5 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 10.

• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 79% above normal
• The northwestern region got 42% below normal rains
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

 

 

 

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