Global Ag News for June 1.22
Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $0.26; Soyoil down 0.59.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 63 1/4 in SRW, down 61 in HRW, down 50 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 26; Soybeans down 42 1/2; Soymeal down $1.42; Soyoil down 2.07. For the month to date wheat prices are up 33 in SRW, up 65 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 64 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $14.90; Soyoil down 6.85.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 42% in SRW, up 47% in HRW, up 28% in HRS; Corn is up 27%; Soybeans up 27%; Soymeal up 2%; Soyoil up 38%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal down 61; Soyoil down 18; Palm oil down 10; Corn down 38 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 56 ringgit (+0.89%) at 6360.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,010 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 139 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 31 were: SRW Wheat up 1,116 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,196, Corn up 17,058, Soybeans down 3,092, Soymeal up 3,149, Soyoil up 4,151.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal north and near to above normal south Sunday-Thursday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.
Canadian Prairies Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Scattered showers southwest Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.
The player sheet for 5/31 had funds: net sellers of 21,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 23,500 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 8,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is seeking an unspecified amount of wheat in an international purchasing tender. The deadline for offers is June 1. Offers can be submitted on a free-on-board (FOB) or cost and freight (C&F) basis, for payment using 180-day letters of credit, GASC said. Shipping for FOB offers will be from July 20-31 and/or Aug. 1-10, while delivery for c&f will be from Aug. 1-20.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: A government agency in Pakistan bought about 500,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender which closed on last week
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have purchased 60,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat for shipment to one or both of Mostaganem and Tenes, two small ports, suggesting a limited volume may be purchased, traders said on Sunday. The optional-origin tender specified possible shipment dates covering all of July and August if wheat is sourced from main supplier regions including Europe, with shipment required one month earlier if wheat comes from South America or Australia
- WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer of $464.55 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to import 50,000 tonnes of wheat, officials from the country’s grain purchasing agency said on Monday. Trading house Bagadiya Brothers submitted the lowest offer in the tender, which closed on Sunday, the Directorate General of Food added. No purchase had yet been reported and the offers were still being considered, the officials said.
- RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is seeking at least 25,000 tonnes of white rice in a tender-practice on the account of the Holding Company for Food Industries. Offers were to be submitted by May 19.
US Inspected 1.391m Tons of Corn for Export, 378k of Soybean
Brazil’s soy exports in May seen at 10.731 mln T– Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 10.731 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 11.278 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.090 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 1.273 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.854 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 1.903 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 109,099 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 109,099 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
Argentine Farmers Are Hoarding the Most Soy in a Decade
Farmers in Argentina are trading soybeans at the slowest pace in at least a decade, selling and pricing just 18% of the crop through the third week of May. That’s curtailing supplies to already tight global soy meal and oil markets as well as hindering the nation’s central bank, which depends on soy shipments for its reserves of dollars. Hoarding is a traditional tactic in Argentina to hedge against currency devaluations, but high prices this season mean farmers can sell even fewer beans to cover near-term costs and bills.
EU Soft-Wheat Shipments Steady in Season Through May 29
Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 totaled 24.6m tons as of May 29, versus 24.7m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.
- NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
- Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (4.15m tons), Egypt (2.44m tons) and China (2.13m tons)
- EU barley exports at 6.78m tons, versus 7.12m tons a year earlier
- EU corn imports at 15.1m tons, versus 13.9m tons a year earlier
Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $1,700.12/Ton for June
Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil exporter, sets the reference price for crude palm oil at $1,700.12/ton for June, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, says by text messages on Tuesday.
Government keeps CPO export tax and additional levy unchanged at $200/ton and at $375/ton, respectively, for June shipments
As La Nina Weakens, Argentina Wheat Is Still at Risk: Exchange
The likelihood of a third consecutive La Nina is fading, but disruptive weather is nevertheless forecast for the 2022-23 crop season, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange climatologist Eduardo Sierra says in a report.
- Many inland wheat farms will suffer drought and frosts over the southern hemisphere winter and spring
- NOTE: The forecast for a dry and frosty winter would be bad for wheat yields, according to a separate Rosario Board of Trade report
- Drought in mid-spring and early-summer seen affecting soy and corn crops planted in 4Q, though after that plants will grow in “close-to-normal conditions”
- River levels will continue their 2Q recovery over winter, though shallowness is seen again in September before another slow rebound
Manitoba Crop Seeding Lags Five-Year Average Amid Weather Woes
About 40% of Manitoba’s crop has been planted, compared to five-year average of 91%: government report.
- Wet and slowly drying soils are hampering progress with tractors, seeders and sprayers getting stuck
- “Farm operators are forced to work very long hours, or overnight for 24-hour periods in an effort to seed crops while soil and weather conditions permit”
- Wet conditions have let to shifts in acreage
Egypt Says It’s Getting Ukrainian Wheat Shipment via Romania
Egypt is set to receive a Ukrainian wheat cargo through Romania, the first to reach the key grain importer since the Russian war on Ukraine disrupted supplies.
The wheat entered Romania from Ukraine by rail and is now being loaded at a Romanian port on a ship that will be sailing to Egypt, Yasser Tawfiq, the head of delivery and storage at the state-run Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage, said on Sada El-Balad television Tuesday night. He didn’t specify the size of the cargo or when it’s expected to arrive.
Egypt, which relies on Russia and Ukraine for 42% of its grain imports, has been wrestling with the impact of the war on supplies. Its wheat bill is set to rise more than half to $4.4 billion this fiscal year that ends in June, as grain prices soared on supply concerns over the war and poor harvests elsewhere.
The government in May said it’s in talks with Ukraine about how to receive previously contracted wheat while export routes are blocked. Transporting the grain by rail to Romania was one of the possibilities discussed.
U.S. can offer ‘comfort letters’ to help Russia grain, fertilizer exports – U.S. envoy
The United States is prepared to give “comfort letters” to shipping and insurance companies to help facilitate exports of Russian grain and fertilizer, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said on Tuesday.
She noted that Russian grain and fertilizer were not under U.S. sanctions but that “companies are a little nervous and we’re prepared to give them comfort letters if that will help to encourage them.”
Brazil buyers turn to cheaper Paraguayan corn even as record crop looms
Brazilian meatpackers and livestock producers are boosting purchases of Paraguayan corn this season, industry sources and analysts told Reuters, a move driven by high domestic prices and expectations of large corn exports from Brazil.
Paraguay will harvest a bumper crop in June and is close to Southern states in Brazil that badly need corn used as animal feed.
Brazil will harvest an estimated record 115 million tonnes of corn this season. Most of it will be available in the middle of the year, when the country’s second corn is reaped.
Still, Cooperativa Central Aurora Alimentos, Brazil’s third-largest poultry and pork processor, confirmed it would buy corn from Paraguay, as its main plants are in the west of Santa Catarina. The amount Aurora will import will hinge on price negotiations, an executive said.
Paraguayan consultancy DasAgro estimates the country’s corn exports at between 3.5 million tonnes and 3.8 million tonnes. Of that, up to 2.5 million could come to Brazil this marketing year. If confirmed, the volume would be about double that seen in the past cycle.
S&P Global analyst Gabriel Faleiros said corn is quoted at 1,475 reais ($310.74) per tonne in the Cascavel region, Parana state.
When Brazil’s second corn is available around June and July, it is possible that price converges to export parity, which would work as an incentive for farmers and traders to export more, Faleiros said.
A hog producers association in Santa Catarina estimates that state alone would import 4.5 million tonnes from Paraguay and other origins this season.
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