Global Ag News for July 5.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 90 1/2 in SRW, down 84 3/4 in HRW, down 122 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 66 1/2; Soybeans down 29; Soymeal down $0.15; Soyoil down 2.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 38 in SRW, down 38 1/4 in HRW, down 42 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/4; Soybeans down 62 3/4; Soymeal down $17.50; Soyoil down 2.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8% in SRW, up 14% in HRW, down -4% in HRS; Corn is up 27%; Soybeans up 22%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 17%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 6 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil down 280; Palm oil down 272; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 172 ringgit (-3.95%) at 4178.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,668 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 1 were: SRW Wheat up 2,682 contracts, HRW Wheat up 232, Corn up 5,371, Soybeans down 3,086, Soymeal down 215, Soyoil up 4,034.

The player sheet for 7/1 had funds: net sellers of 14,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 13,500 corn, sellers of 17,500 soybeans, sellers of 7,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 8,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be supplied from optional origins in a private deal on Friday without an international tender being issued
  • CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section purchased about 58,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price Pakistan received in its international tender for 500,000 tonnes of milling wheat that closed on Friday was believed to be $439.40 a tonne c&f
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is believed to have bought around 444,000 tonnes of wheat directly from trading houses on Monday, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 130,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 122,420 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

Brazil June Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

  • Cotton exports fell 38% y/y
  • Soy meal exports rose 33% y/y
  • Soybean exports fell 8% y/y
  • Iron ore exports down 4% y/y

Egypt Scoops Up 10% of Its Yearly Wheat Needs in Just a Week

  • The country booked 444,000 tons in private negotiations Monday
  • That follows last week’s biggest tender purchase in a decade

Egypt loaded up on wheat again just days after buying a massive amount in a tender, securing about a 10th of its annual needs in less than a week.

The country is one of the world’s top wheat importers, making its purchase pace important for the market. The US government expects Egypt to buy 11 million tons for the 2022-23 season, about half of which is typically bought by the state to help subsidize bread.

The state-run buyer bought 444,000 tons of wheat on Monday in private negotiations with traders, a person with direct knowledge of the transactions said. That marked a shift from its historical process of securing supply exclusively in tenders — such as one last week when it booked 815,000 tons, the most in at least a decade.

The purchase frenzy comes after a dip in global prices, with Chicago futures wiping out gains made since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices have been pressured by concerns that an economic slowdown will hurt demand for commodities, while the start of harvests in the Northern Hemisphere should give supplies a boost.

In Egypt’s booking on Monday, 230,000 tons were from nations in the European Union and the rest from Russia, according to traders who asked not to be identified.

CORN/CEPEA: International prices decrease and press down values in Brazil

Corn prices continue to move down in Brazil, pressed by the progress of the second crop harvest and by price drops in the international market. In the United States, quotations have been influenced by data released by the USDA indicating both higher inventories compared to the previous season and planted area in the 2022/23 crop in relation to data released in March this year.

In this scenario, purchasers remain away from trades, expecting to close deals at lower values in the coming weeks. Between June 23 and 30, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea (spot market), corn prices dropped by 1.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

In Campinas (SP), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn closed at BRL 83.55/60-kilo bag on June 30, 2.8% down from that on June 23, and returning to the levels registered in November/21. At B3, the July/22 contract dropped by 2.4% in the same comparison, at 84.64 BRL/bag on June 30.

International price drops pressed down quotations at Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP) ports. Comparing June 23-30, decreases were 7% and 1%, respectively.

The USDA indicated on June 30 that the planted area increased by 0.4% compared to the report released in March, at 36.38 million hectares. Inventories, in turn, were at 110.39 million tons up to June 1st, for an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous year.

The warm and dry weather allowed advances of the harvest in Central-West Brazil. In Mato Grosso, Imea indicates that 35.7% of the area had been harvested up to June 24, against only 9.71% in the same period last year. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Famasul says that harvesting reached 2.9% of the total until June 24, against 0.3% in 2021.

In Paraná, the favorable weather helped the harvesting progress. Seab/Deral indicates that 6% of the crop had been harvested up to June 27. In São Paulo and Goiás, activities have started, but they were interrupted in some areas, due to high humidity of the grains.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: June ends with upward trend for soybean prices

Domestic prices of soybean and soybean meal moved up in June, due to increases in the international market and higher export premiums. In the United States, crops conditions worsened, and the USDA indicated an area reduction compared to initial estimates (March/22).

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) increased by 2.8% from June 23-30 and 2.6% in June, closing at BRL 194.96/60-kilo bag on June 30. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná upped 2.4% in the week and 2.31% in the month, at BRL 189.82/bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices increased by 2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 1.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). Dollar quotes remained stable at 5.23 BRL from June 23-30.

Considering by-products, soybean meal values moved up 2.6% between June 23 and 30 on the average of regions surveyed by Cepea. As for soy oil, on the other hand, prices (with 12% ICMS) decreased by 3.6% in São Paulo city between June 23 and 30, to BRL 8,618.48/ton on June 30.

The USDA says that the 2022 soybean area in the US may increase 1% compared to 2021 and be the highest since 2018, totaling 35.7 million hectares. In spite of that, the area is still 3% lower compared to the report released in March. The annual area increase in the United States has been smaller than in Brazil and in Argentina because of the dry weather caused by La Niña and the fact that agents are less interested in biodiesel, which uses mainly soybean oil as raw material.

Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles Seen at Largest in Seven Months

  • Inventories probably climbed 13% in June, most in 10 months
  • Shore tanks in Malaysia are brimming with palm oil: broker

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia likely swelled to the highest since November as production in the second-largest grower climbed and exports slumped after Indonesia ramped up its own shipments.

Stockpiles jumped about 13% in June from a month earlier to 1.72 million tons, according to the median of nine estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and plantation executives. That’s the biggest monthly increase in 10 months and puts reserves around 7% higher than the same month a year ago.

Malaysian exports fell about 10% to 1.22 million tons, the survey showed, after surging 27% in May. Indonesia is pushing ahead with its plan to cut bloated domestic inventories by speeding up exports, a move that has gobbled market share from neighboring Malaysia and led to a steep decline in prices.

Thailand to Export 150,000 Tons of Palm Oil on Surplus Supply

Thailand plans to export excess supply of crude palm oil by about 150,000 tons over the next three months to stabilize domestic market.

  • Cabinet approved budget of 309m baht to help facilitate those palm oil shipments by the end of September, government says in statement Tuesday
  • Thailand will export the excess supply only when domestic palm oil stockpiles exceeding 300,000 tons and local prices are higher than global market
  • Export plan will help support local market as supply of palm oil is rising, while consumption in the energy sector is falling, it says

Brazil Ethanol Price Falls 8% in June Amid Weak Demand: Cepea

Hydrous ethanol at Sao Paulo sugar-cane mills declined to BRL 3.0419 (57 cents) a liter on the previous month’s average, according to University of Sao Paulo research arm Cepea.

  • Fuel distributors avoided purchases amid Brazil’s weak fuel demand and expectations of tax changes, which were confirmed late June, Cepea says in a report
  • In the week ended July 1, hydrous ethanol price fell 3.3% to BRL 2.9634, the lowest in four months
  • Some mills increased supplies last week as cane harvest advanced
  • NOTE: Cepea ethanol index excludes taxes

Brazil’s June fertilizer imports grow to 4.15 mln tonnes – government data

Brazilian fertilizer imports in June totaled 4.15 million tonnes, up from 3.5 million tonnes in the same month of 2021, according to government trade data on Friday.

The figure indicates that Brazil, a net fertilizer importer, should have enough supplies to start planting summer crops like soybeans and first corn starting in September.

Brazil 2021/22 Total Corn Crop Seen At 117.24 Million Tns – Safras & Mercado

  • BRAZIL 2021/2022 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 117.24 MILLION TNS VERSUS 118,12 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – SAFRAS & MERCADO
  • BRAZIL 2021/2022 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 82.15 MILLION TNS VERSUS 83.25 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – SAFRAS & MERCADO

Russia Export Duty on Grain, Sunflower Oil to Be Set in Rubles

Russian government approved setting export duties for grains, sunflower oil and oilseed meal in rubles instead of dollars, Agriculture Ministry says on its Telegram channel.

  • Duties for exports of sunflower oil and sunflower meal to be extended until Aug. 31, 2023
  • Russia taxes grain and oilseed exports based on indicative and basis prices, the latter were previously in dollars
  • Basis price will be set at 82,500 rubles per ton of sunflower oil instead of $1,000 previously, at 15,000 rubles per ton for wheat from $200 previously, and at 13,875 rubles for barley and corn from $185 previously

Brazil farmers harvest almost one-third of second corn

Brazilian farmers have harvested nearly a third of their second corn in center south fields, as dry weather and the higher temperatures that prevailed last week continued to favor the work, especially in top grower Mato Grosso.

According to agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday, farmers harvested 30.7% of second corn fields so far in the season, or nearly 25 million tonnes.

With second corn, which is planted after soy is harvested in the same areas, Brazil can compete with suppliers like the United States in global corn export markets during the second half.

Second corn represents about 75% of production in a given year.

Patria, another agribusiness consultancy, said on Monday harvesting reached 34.1% of area for the whole of Brazil, compared to 23.9% of a historical 5-year average.

At the same time in 2021, Brazil’s second corn harvesting represented a mere 12.2% of the area in the center south, AgRural said, as part of the crop was planted outside the ideal climate window and growers faced weather problems.

AgRural said the pace of harvesting in Brazil this season could be even faster if it were not for Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana states, where the corn still conserves moist from low temperatures, slowing the work.

WHEAT/CEPEA: International prices continue decreasing; Russian exports may hit a record

International quotations of wheat continue in a downward trend, influenced by favorable weather conditions in important producing countries, such as the United States and Australia, and the decrease of corn prices. Besides, in spite of the decrease of the production estimate in Ukraine, the possible record in exports from Russia reinforces the downward trend, since it reduces concerns with the global wheat supply.

The Russian consulting company SovEcon indicates a decrease of 1.4 million tons in the production in Ukraine, totaling 20.7 million tons, scenario linked to the smaller volume in conflict zones and to the dry weather. As for Russia, SovEcon boosted the forecast for 2022/23 exports in 300 thousand tons, to the record of 42.6 million tons. However, there are concerns with the lack of ships, due to military activities.

DOMESTIC MARKET – In spite of international price decreases, wheat values continue firm in most areas surveyed by Cepea in Brazil, because of low availability of the cereal and the dollar valuation. Only a few trades have been closed.

Cepea surveys show that, between June 24 and July 1st, the prices paid to wheat farmers rose by 0.93% in Santa Catarina and 0.56% in Paraná, but dropped 0.88% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased by 1.12% in SP, 0.56% in RS and 0.04% in SC, but dropped by 0.87% in PR. The American currency upped 1.2% in the same period, at 5.322 BRL On July 1st.

In real terms, monthly prices in June are still a record in Rio Grande do Sul (2,147.24 BRL per ton) and in Santa Catarina (2,094.40 BRL/ton), considering Cepea series starting from 2004. In Paraná and São Paulo, June price averages are the highest since 2013.

According to data from Secex, in 21 working days of June, 47.02 thousand tons were exported, while imports totaled 627.11 thousand tons.

NATIONAL WHEAT CROP – According to data from Conab, 63.7% of the national wheat crop had been sown.

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 30.7% Done as of June 30: AgRural

Compares with 20.3% a week earlier and 12.2% a year ago, according to an emailed report from consultancy firm AgRural.

  • That means around 25m tons of corn have already been harvested in Brazil’s Center South region
  • Low temperatures in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana states prevent harvest pace from being faster

Import Restrictions Risk Argentina Corn Planting: Farm Group

Argentina’s new rules on financing imports through September to protect the central bank’s dollar reserves will restrict fertilizer supplies and could reduce farmers’ intention to plant 2022-23 corn, top farm group Rural Argentine Confederations says in a statement.

  • NOTE: Two crops of corn, which is fertilizer-intensive, are planted in Argentina between early September and early February
  • The positive trade balance of Argentina’s agriculture industry, in terms of the value of products exported vs. inputs imported, “is more than telling”: statement
  • Farmers, who import ~65% of their fertilizers, used 5.6m metric tons last year: statement

Russian Wheat Crop Seen Rising 10m Tons Versus 2021: Agritel

Russia’s 2022 wheat harvest is estimated at 85.4m tons, up from 75.2m tons the prior year, advisory Agritel says in an emailed report.

  • Of the total, winter-wheat production is seen rising to a record 64.4m tons
  • Fields in the Center and Volga regions have had very good conditions
  • Dry, hot weather in early June hampered crops in the south
  • Winter-wheat yield estimated at 3.88 tons/hectare, 6% above the five-year average
  • The group didn’t conduct its usual crop tour due to the war in Ukraine; outlook is based on discussions with local analysts, traders and farmers

Ukraine’s June Grain Exports Sink 44% Y/y to 1.4m Tons: Ministry

Ukraine’s grain exports fell to 1.4m tons in June from 2.49m tons a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

  • Corn accounted for 1.2m tons of the outbound grain shipments
  • Total grain exports in the 2021-22 marketing year rose by 8.5% to 48.5m tons
  • Corn exports increased by 2% to 23.5m tons in the period — which ended June 30
  • Wheat exports climbed by 13% to 18.7m tons

Copa-Cogeca Sees EU Wheat Crop Down 4.5% Y/y on Extreme Weather

Soft-wheat output from the EU-27 nations is seen at 123.4m tons this year, versus 129.2m tons the prior season, farm lobby Copa and Cogeca says in an emailed report.

  • Extreme weather from heat waves to dryness and hail has curbed wheat yields this year, says Jean-Francois Isambert, chairman of its grains committee
    • “In some regions, we are already worried about the delay experience in the new fertilizer purchasing campaign”
    • “We are also concerned with the logistical bottlenecks affecting grain exports from Ukraine and the associated risks of market disturbances”
  • Corn crop could fall 3.4% y/y; total grains output down 4.4%
  • Meanwhile, rapeseed production is expected to rise 7.3% y/y and sunflowers up 10%

Indonesia Has Issued Palm Oil Export Permits for 2.44M Tons

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, has issued a total of 2.44 million tons of export permit for the commodity since May until Tuesday, according to the coordinating ministry for maritime affairs and investment.

  • Permits for 1.35m tons were based on domestic market obligation program, while about 1.09m tons were part of special tax program, said Firman Hidayat, ministry’s special staff on international relations and agreements
  • Exports realization reached 1.66m tons of the total permits issued
  • NOTE: Indonesia Raises Palm Oil Export Quota in Bid to Increase Prices

India expands biofuel tax benefit for ethanol and vegoils

India has expanded the excise duty exemption for biofuels to encourage the blending of higher proportions of ethanol and components of vegetable oil with gasoline and diesel, a government order said.

India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, has been particularly keen to rein in its oil import bill since the conflict in Ukraine spurred a surge in global crude prices.

The tax exemption will be applicable to an ethanol portion of 12%-15% blended with gasoline, up from 10% previously. For diesel, the exemption will apply to a 20% portion of alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids obtained from vegetable oils, the order said.

India plans to introduce 20% ethanol blending with gasoline in some parts of the country from April next year, followed by a nationwide roll out from 2025/26.

French 2022 Soft-Wheat Yield Seen 3% Below Average, Groups Say

This year’s soft-wheat yield in France is estimated at 6.95 tons per hectare, down 3% versus the prior 10-year average, industry group Intercereales and crop institute Arvalis said in a statement on Friday.

  • Crops are mixed across the country, given challenges throughout the growing season from dryness, frost and hail
  • The return of rains in early June aided fields that were still in the grain-filling stage
  • Average protein content is estimated at 11.6%, on pace with the norm
  • NOTE: Wheat harvests just kicked off in France, with about 5% collected as of late June

Ukraine exports 61.5 mln T grain, oilseeds worth $22.2 bln in 2021/22

Ukraine, a major global grain and oilseed producer and exporter, increased grain exports by 8.5 percent to 48.5 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season despite a sharp fall in volumes in February-June caused by the Russian invasion.

The following are details of major Ukrainian grain, vegetable oil and oilseed exports, provided by Ukraine’s deputy economy minister Taras Kachka.

US Fertilizer Prices Pressured as Summer Reset Accelerates

US fertilizer prices remain squeezed by reduced spring demand and a round of aggressive summer fill programs. Phosphate supply has tightened at New Orleans on lower imports, though summer fills in the western US showed large price declines earlier in June. New Orleans (NOLA) urea rebounded after falling 50% since April 1, while higher European gas prices affect urea and ammonia.

Ammonia, Ammonium Sulfate Fall in Friday Findings

The summer price reset for fertilizer accelerated this week with the release of ammonia fill programs in the Midwest. Offers for 3Q shipments included $805-$825 a short ton (st) in the Southern Plains, $825-$850 in the Western Corn Belt and $950 in the Eastern Corn Belt, down dramatically from the spring demand peak of $1,250-$1,350 in the Southern Plains and $1,375-$1,475 in the Corn Belt. Ammonium sulfate prices were also falling, driven by new postings from AdvanSix at $480/st in the Midwest for tons shipped after mid-July, down from the spring high of $740-$765.

Urea prices firmed at New Orleans (NOLA) and inland after weeks of decline since April, and phosphate was generally stable at NOLA and inland. Potash prices were flat to down slightly as the industry awaits summer fill offers from domestic producers.

Brazilian Nitrogen Prices Bounce as Planting Draws Closer

Urea prices recently retested their March low in Brazil, yet the latest bounce appears set to stretch, as fundamental factors add upward pressure. Preparation for 2H planting appears to be bringing solid demand back to the marketplace. Meanwhile, surging natural gas prices in Europe are adding unease as they boost global costs.

Nitrogen Prices Lean on Planting Demand, Europe Gas

Nitrogen-fertilizer offer prices in Brazil have positive momentum for the coming week, yet they’ll continue to lean on strong demand signals from Brazil and India. Preparation for Brazil’s 2H planting season has been driving purchases. Quotes have also been supported (and made more volatile) by global urea price strength, as surging natural-gas prices and ammonia-plant shutdowns in Europe further tighten supply. Nitrogen prices in Brazil continued their rebound in this week’s final assessments, reflecting a 15% increase over the past two weeks.

Phosphates and potash negotiations remain slower than usual in most Brazilian regions, ranging from lower to stable price indications. Slight declines can’t be ruled out in the coming weeks, as suppliers seek to reduce high port inventories.

Scheduled Russian Shipments Mark Return to Normal

Scheduled Russian fertilizer exports to Brazil hint at a timely recovery and now point to meaningful supply relief before the planting season begins in 2H. June’s average weekly shipments were 24% higher than in the three months after the start Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (March-May). Potash weekly volume averaged 28% below the pre-June year-to-date average, but demand may simply be balancing out an above-average start to the year, as January-May total Brazilian imports were 31% above 2021 levels. The drop in potash didn’t affect Russia’s total shipments, as it was balanced by higher volumes of phosphates and nitrogen.

Over the next three months, 715,200 metric tons of fertilizer are expected to arrive from Russia, with potash accounting for 40%, phosphates 32% and nitrogen 16% of scheduled fertilizer cargoes.

China state planner: no basis for sustained rise in hog prices

China’s state planner said on Monday that the country’s hog supply is sufficient and there was no basis for a sustained price rise.

China’s live hog prices have surged 50% since early May on tighter supply but farmers are also delaying sending pigs to slaughter and raising them to heavier weights to earn larger profits.

Russian wheat prices down as new crop arrives, export tax falls

Russian wheat export prices fell last week due to pressure from the new crop, which farmers have just started harvesting, a reduced export tax and a decline in Chicago Wv1 prices, analysts said on Monday.

Sanctions-hit Russia reduced its grain exports taxes sharply last week to support shipments in the July-June marketing season.

Prices for the new wheat crop with 12.5% protein content and for supply from Black Sea ports fell by $25 to $375 per tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said.

Sovecon, another consultancy, said wheat prices for supply in July-August were at $375-385 per tonne compared to $390-$400 a week ago.

Russia exported 250,000 tonnes of grain last week compared with 500,000 tonnes a week earlier, Sovecon, said, citing data from ports.

Russian farmers, mainly in the southern Stavropol region, have started harvesting new crop wheat.

As of June 30, they had harvested from 92,200 hectares versus 117,900 hectares at the same date a year earlier. The average yield was 2.73 tonnes per hectare, up from 2.35 a year earlier.

“This does not look like a great yield but bear in mind that farmers typically harvest the worst fields first which suffered the most during the earlier dryness,” Sovecon said.

Dry weather in most parts of Russia’s southern regions is expected to benefit the harvesting this week after rain last week.

US Beef Production Falls 4.6% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 515m pounds for the week ending July 2 from 539m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Cattle slaughter down 4.5% from a week ago to 636m head
  • Pork production down 1% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 0.8%
  • For the year, beef production is 0.9% above last year’s level at this time, and pork is 3.5% below

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