Global Ag News for July 28th

TODAY – WEEKLY EIA ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $0.21; Soyoil down 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.69. For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, up 43 in HRS; Corn is down 43; Soybeans down 42 1/2; Soymeal down $22.60; Soyoil up 0.08.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 9 yuan ; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil unchanged; Palm oil up 12; Corn up 8 — Malasyian Palm is down 89. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 89 ringgit (-2.01%) at 4333 slipping from a two-month high amid a drop in soybean oil and deteriorating growth prospects for India and emerging Asia.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Heavy rainfall south Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday. East: Scattered showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, southwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for 7/27 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 27 were: SRW Wheat down 1,049 contracts, HRW Wheat up 54, Corn down 2,704, Soybeans down 6,775, Soymeal down 6,420, Soyoil down 4,220.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for shipment over Sept. 20-30.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan bought 60,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for shipment in the first half of January 2022
• WHEAT BARLEY, TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 515,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

 CROP TOUR: N.D. Spring Wheat Yield Seen at 29.5 Bu/Acre

The spring-wheat yield estimate for the No. 1 U.S. growing state of North Dakota is 29.5 bu/acre on the first of a three-day crop tour across the state.

CROP TOUR: Wheat Yield Looks ‘Below Average’ in Eastern N.D.

Spring-wheat yield appears “below average” along a route of five fields in central eastern N.D., according to Jim Peterson, North Dakota Wheat Commission’s policy and marketing director. North of Fargo yields look lower than average for the area, though “quality potential looks very good,” Peterson said early Tuesday during an assessment of spring wheat and durum. The Wheat Quality Council is hosting the crop tour that runs through Thursday.

Kernel size is good and there’s no sign of disease: Peterson

NOTE: The eastern part of N.D. is expected to look better than the central and western regions, where severe drought and heat are hurting crops

In western N.D., hot temperatures are causing the number of grain-devouring grasshoppers to pick up: Peterson

Spring-wheat yield averaged 41 bu/acre after four stops along a route in south central N.D., crop scout Rita Ott said on the first day of a Wheat Quality Council crop tour.

Est. yields ranged from 34 bu/acre to 45 bu/acre

Fields so far have been “really dry” with a lot of variability between and within them

NOTE: On the first full day of the tour in 2019, overall yield est. avg. was 45.6 bu/acre, based on 153 stops,

There is no 2020 figure due to lack of data gathering amid the global pandemic

NOTE: Only 9% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is rated good or excellent amid drought and unseasonably hot temperatures; that’s down from 11% last week and 70% a year ago: USDA

Most-active futures in Minneapolis rose Tuesday and are up nearly 50% this year

Canada Canola Crush at 830K Tons in June: StatsCan

Canola processing declined 4% in June from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Tuesday on agency’s website. Oil production totaled 362k tons, and meal output at 472k tons. Aug.-June crushings up 2.9% from year ago to 9.593m tons. NOTE: Canada is the world’s top canola grower

China’s Corn Imports Poised for Record Even With Cancellations

China is still on track to import a record amount of corn this marketing year, even with the small volume of recent cancellations, Li Xigui, a chief analyst with the state-backed China National Grain and Oils Information Center, told an online conference Wednesday.

Argentine farmers sell 25.8 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans, ministry says

Argentine farmers have sold 25.8 million tonnes of soybeans from the current 2020/21 crop year, after transactions were recorded over the last week for 747,600 tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a report with data through July 21.

The pace of soy crop sales is behind that of the previous season. At this point last year sales of 27.9 million tonnes of the oilseed had been registered, official data showed.

The soy harvest in Argentina ended in June at 43.5 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. The 2019/20 harvest was 49 million tonnes, the exchange says.

With regard to corn, the ministry said sales of the 2020/21 crop, which is currently harvested, have totaled 34.6 million tonnes, about 3 million tonnes more than those registered at this point in the last season. The exchange expects a 2020/21 corn crop of 48 million tonnes. As of last week harvesting was 72.2% complete, the exchange said.

Malaysia’s June exports rise 27.2% on-year, above forecast

• June exports +27.2% y/y vs estimate of +11.7%
• June imports +32.1% y/y vs estimate of +18.2%
• Trade surplus 22.24 bln rgt vs estimated surplus of 19 bln rgt

Malaysia’s exports rose 27.2% from a year earlier in June, outstripping expectations, in a tenth straight month of on-year growth, government data showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected June exports to rise 11.7% from a year earlier. Exports grew 47.3% in May, but that was down from 63% in April, which was the biggest expansion since February 1998.

EU 2021/22 soybean imports at 816,901 T, rapeseed 217,890 T

European Union soybean imports in the 2021/22 season that started on July 1 reached 816,901 tonnes by July 25, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. That compared with 1.03 million tonnes in the previous 2020/21 season, the data showed. EU rapeseed imports in 2021/22 reached 217,890 tonnes, compared with 117,612 in 2020/21. Soymeal imports 2021/22 totalled 707,778 tonnes against 1.29 million the prior season, while palm oil imports stood at 262,818 tonnes versus 465,888 tonnes in 2020/21. Since Jan. 1, the European Commission’s data has covered the EU’s 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 50% in Season Through July 25

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 625k tons as of July 25, versus 1.24m tons in the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

Brazil’s July corn export forecast cut to 3.158 mln T – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.447 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 9.437 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.158 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 3.195 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

SovEcon Cuts Russia Wheat Export Est. on Lower Crop, Slow Sales

Russian wheat exports in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 37.1m tons, down 1.3m tons from a prior estimate, consultant SovEcon says in an emailed report. Downgrade follows a smaller outlook for this year’s harvest. Sales at the beginning of the season have also been slow, with July shipments likely totaling 1.9m tons. That’s down 19% y/y and the lowest for the month since 2017. Harvests are lagging due to rainy weather and the government’s weekly-adjusted export tax is an extra hurdle

Russia’s 2021 grain harvest progress as of July 27

Russia, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, has harvested 47.9 million tonnes of grain before drying and cleaning with an average yield of 3.32 tonnes per hectare, data from the agriculture ministry showed on Wednesday

Indonesia to Cut CPO Export Tax in Aug., Keep Extra Levy

Govt will cut the tax for palm oil exports to $93 a ton in Aug. from $116 in July, in line with lower reference price, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, said in a text message. Reference price for Aug. will be set at $1,048.62/ton versus July’s $1,094.15/ton Indonesia will keep the additional levy for CPO exports unchanged at $175/ton in Aug.

China’s Wheat Crop Threatened by Toxin Risk After Flooding

The forecast for the rest of July and early August calls for more rain and temperatures over 90 degrees fahrenheit. The heat and humidity significantly increase the risk of mycotoxin contamination in Henan’s freshly harvested wheat crop, threatening the quality of a significant portion of China’s domestic wheat supply for the 2021/22 marketing year.

Gro’s Aflatoxin Risk Index is a model framework that can be used to predict the risk of contamination by aflatoxin, the most dangerous form of mycotoxin globally. The machine-learning model can help identify the areas of greatest risk and thus indicate where to concentrate testing and control measures. Click here for more information about our Aflatoxin Risk Index.

Farmland Value Jumps in Indiana, Purdue University Report Says

Farmland value in Indiana is up 14.1%, averaging $9,785 per acre for top-quality farmland from last year in June, Purdue University said in its Agricultural Economics Report. Average-quality farmland is up 12.5% to $8,144 and poor-quality farmland increased 12.1% to $6,441 Economic forces such as net farm income, crop and livestock prices and inflation played a major role in the price increase, said Todd H. Kuethe, Purdue associate professor and survey author.