Global Ag News For July 26.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 16 3/4 in SRW, up 14 3/4 in HRW, up 16 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 20; Soymeal up $0.44; Soyoil up 0.97.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 25 1/4 in SRW, up 32 1/2 in HRW, up 28 in HRS; Corn is up 33 1/2; Soybeans up 49 1/2; Soymeal up $2.16; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 97 1/4 in SRW, down 97 1/4 in HRW, down 90 in HRS; Corn is down 22 3/4; Soybeans down 92; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil down 5.94.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 2% in SRW, up 6% in HRW, down -8% in HRS; Corn is up 0%; Soybeans up 12%; Soymeal up 10%; Soyoil up 8%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 117 yuan; Soymeal up 56; Soyoil up 192; Palm oil up 218; Corn up 40 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 146 ringgit (+4.00%) at 3792.

There were changes in registrations (-6 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 194 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 25 were: SRW Wheat down 242 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,142, Corn down 4,424, Soybeans up 484, Soymeal down 1,158, Soyoil down 2,743.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/25 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 10,500 soybeans, buyers of 8,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 92,100 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, China and other origins
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Pakistan to purchase 200,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Monday was believed to be $407.49 a tonne c&f

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

US Inspected 724k Tons of Corn for Export, 388k of Soybean

Ukraine Grain Exports May Reach 2M Tons, Hinge on Safety: Club

The three ports involved in the new Ukrainian grain export dealhave the capacity to ship roughly 3m-4m tons of grain a month, Roman Slaston, director general of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, says by phone.

  • Within two months, it’s possible for seaborne exports to reach 2m tons
    • If there are further attacks from Russia, and particularly if ships or grain facilities are targeted, that could stall the arrangements
    • “The willingness of shipowners to come with their ships to our ports will be the crucial factor to recover export volumes from Ukraine”
  • The first grain vessels may leave Ukraine this week or next, he says
    • Ships that have been blocked in ports since Russia’s invasion began in February likely will be the first to move
  • Ukraine continues to push forward with efforts to increase grain-export capacity by alternative rail, road and river routes

UN Expects First Ships to Move From Ukraine Within a Few Days

Since the Black Sea grain-export agreement was signed late last week, the UN and the parties to the initiative have been in frequent contact, including on Sunday, a spokesperson for the UN’s secretary-general said at a daily press briefing Monday.

  • All parties have reconfirmed their commitment to the initiative
  • It’s expected that the first ships may move from Ukraine within a few days
  • Turkey’s government has provided a physical space for the joint coordination center in Istanbul, which is part of the agreement, and operations are being established
    • All parties and the UN will have a presence there by Tuesday
  • Joint coordination center will be liaising with the shipping industry and will publish detailed procedures for ships soon

Indonesia has issued palm oil export permits for a combined 3.84 mln T -ministry

Indonesia has issued palm oil export permits for a combined 3.84 million tonnes through its so-called Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) scheme as well as its programme to accelerate exports as of Monday, Trade Ministry adviser Oke Nurwan said on Tuesday.

Indonesia has set a total export quota of around 6.3 million tonnes under the DMO and export acceleration schemes.

EU Corn Yield Outlook Slashed 8% on Extreme Heat, Dryness: MARS

Yield outlooks for European Union summer crops — including corn and sunflowers — have been “substantially reduced” by hot and dry weather, the bloc’s Monitoring Agriculture Resources unit said in a note.

  • Corn yield estimate cut to 7.25 tons/hectare, down 7.9% from June
    • That would be 7.8% below the prior five-year average
  • Sunflower yield estimate cut to 2.18 tons/hectare, down 8% from June
  • The area worst-affected includes parts of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Romania and Hungary
    • In France, July is likely to be among the three driest for the month in records since 1991
  • The drought and heat are striking during the flowering phase of summer crops, a vital development period
  • “In several of the regions where summer crops rely on irrigation, water reservoirs are at a very low level, insufficient to sustain demands”
  • Soft-wheat yield estimate cut to 5.74 tons/hectare, down 0.3% from June
  • Long-term weather outlook points to warmer- and drier-than-usual conditions persisting in August and September

Kazakhstan Sees Wheat Harvest at 13m-13.5m Tons This Year

Kazakhstan expects wheat harvest at 13m-13.5m tons this year, or about 15%-20% higher from 2021, Agriculture Minister Yerbol Karashukeev comments on wheat harvest.

The central Asian nation expects grain export this marketing year at average annual levels

Ukraine grain exports may reach 3.5 mln T a month thanks to grain deal

Ukrainian grain exports may reach 3.5 million tonnes a month in the near future thanks to the recently signed deal aimed at unblocking grain exports from Black Sea ports, the first deputy Ukraine’s agriculture minister said on Monday.

Taras Vysotskiy told Ukrainian national television that the volume would gradually increase each month starting from about 1.5 million tonnes in August.

Brazil may export corn to China in the second half

Brazilian and Chinese officials are re-discussing a trade protocol so that Brazil can ship corn to China sooner than intended, Brazilian Agriculture Minister Marcos Montes said on Monday.

Montes said the successful revision of the protocol would allow Brazilian corn to be exported to China in the second half of the year as opposed to next year, as was agreed earlier with Beijing officials.

Brazil exports most of its corn in the second half of the year, competing with suppliers like the United States in that time window. China is already Brazil’s biggest soybean buyer, as well as a key destination for Brazilian meat shipments.

Montes said Brazil is harvesting a large second corn crop, adding the Chinese are keen to import the Brazilian product.

“It will be discussed in the coming days whether we will be able to export the current corn crop,” Montes said, adding discussions to revise the protocol had taken place earlier on Monday.

“They want it right away,” Montes said, referring to China’s appetite for Brazil’s production of the current season.

The protocol covers corn and other products including peanuts, citrus pulp and soy protein concentrate, Montes said.

Brazil has harvested almost 62% of its second corn crop in the center south, according to private consultancy AgRural.

Second corn represents 70% to 75% of national production in a given year and is planted after soybeans in the same areas.

This year, Brazilian farmers will harvest an estimated 87.3 million tonnes of second corn, AgRural said.

Disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has redefined certain agricultural trade routes, leading countries to diversify suppliers.

Brazil CS Winter Corn Harvest 62% Done as of July 21: AgRural

(Bloomberg) — This compares with 53% a week earlier and 39.3% a year earlier, according to an emailed report from consultancy firm AgRural.

  • Around 50m tons of corn have already left the region’s crops
  • AgRural estimates Brazilian winter corn production in 2022 at 87.3m tons, against 60.7m in 2021

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2022/23 wheat exports at 12.35 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires:

“Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Corn exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 38.8 million tons, 2.2 million tons lower than USDA as FAS post forecasts a lower production at 53 million tons. Sorghum exports for MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 1.65 million tons, 850,000 tons lower than USDA as China’s demand has recently cooled down. Rice exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 350,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than USDA.”

WHEAT/CEPEA: With export agreement between Russia and Ukraine, international prices fade

International wheat prices dropped steeply last week, pressed by both the agreement on the exports of grains from Ukraine in the recent days and higher estimates for the Russian wheat crop. This scenario was observed despite the announcement of the crop failure in Argentina last week.

The agreement between Russia and Ukraine was closed last Friday (22), in Turkey, and will allow the export of 22 million tons of grains and other agricultural products from Ukraine, which has been halted since the beginning of the war between these two countries, five months ago. The agreement will allow shipments on the Black Sea in the next 120 days. It is important to highlight that Ukraine is an important exporter of corn and wheat. Since the beginning of the war and the halt in the Ukrainian exports, international wheat prices had been rising high.

In the United States, the Sept/22 contract for the Soft Red Winter wheat decreased by 2.3% at CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) between July 15 and 22, to USD 7.5900/bushel (USD 278.88/ton) on th 22nd. At the Kansas Stock Exchange, the Sept/22 contract for the Hard Winter wheat dropped by 2.1% in the same period, to USD 8.2025/bushel (USD 301.39/ton). These are the lowest levels for a first contract since before the war (early February/22). In Argentina, FOB prices at the port Buenos Aires decreased by 2.6%, to USD 412.00/ton on July 22.

Data released by the Russian consulting company SovEcon raised the production estimates for the Russian 2022/23 crop to 90.9 million tons, 1.7 higher. SovEcon also raised productivity estimates in Russia.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Cepea surveys show that, between July 15 and 22, the prices paid to wheat farmers faded by 2.86% in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and by 0.60% in Santa Catarina (SC) but increased by 0.25% in Paraná (PR). In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose by 1.85% in PR, 1.16% in São Paulo and 0.17% in SC but dropped by 1.95% in RS. In the same period, the US dollar rose by 1.7%, to 5.501 BRL on Friday, 22. Deals have been sporadic, scenario that is expected to continue until the arrival of the crop currently being sown at the market, when values are supposed to drop more steeply.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between July 11 and 15, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná State was USD 424.98/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.4028, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 2,296.12/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was lower, at BRL 2,171.13/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the import parity for the product from Argentina would be of USD 399.32/ton (BRL 2,157.45/ton), against BRL 2,189.95/ton on the average of the state surveyed by Cepea.

Data from Conab show that 93.6% of the national wheat crop had been sown in Brazil by July 16. Activities have ended in Goiás, Minas Gerais, Bahia, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul; in Paraná, 99% have been sown, and in Rio Grande do Sul and in Santa Catarina, 88%.

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