Global Ag News For Jan 7.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s chicken exports hit record in 2025 despite bird flu bans

Brazil’s poultry exports reached a record 5.324 million metric tons in 2025, up 0.6% from the previous year, despite import bans imposed due to the country’s first case of bird flu at a commercial farm, sector group ABPA said on Tuesday.

• Brazil is the world’s largest poultry exporter.
• December shipments totaled about 510,800 tons, up 13.9% from a year earlier.
• The United Arab Emirates was the top destination of Brazil’s poultry in 2025 with about 479,900 tons, followed by Japan with some 402,900 tons.

CHINA LOSES TOP POSITION

• China lost its leading importer position after imposing an embargo due to a bird flu case confirmed in May in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul.
• Brazil controlled the outbreak without further cases at commercial farms, leading its key buyers to lift their bird-flu related trade restrictions.
• China lifted its import ban in late October.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 0.47.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 19 1/4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 0.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 1.31.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 82 yuan; Soymeal up 28; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 10; Corn up 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 43 ringgit (+1.08%) at 4033.

There were changes in registrations (-242 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 813 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 6 were: SRW Wheat up 7,955 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,964, Corn down 17,277, Soybeans up 1,647, Soymeal down 604, Soyoil up 1,705.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: U.S. weather will turn more active with a pair of Midwest cyclones at the end of the week that will bring mostly rain to the major winter crop areas in a favorable outlook
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool Argentina temperatures this week will then give way to a moderating trend, but heat risks are not in sight for corn/soybeans
• AFRICA: Cool temperatures and flooding rains will hit the northern South Africa maize regions toward mid-January in a forecast that could damage the crop
• AUSTRALIA: Localized heavy rains in Queensland could result in some flooding risks for Australia sugar in the next couple weeks in an otherwise positive outlook
• TELECONNECTIONS: La Niña weakened slightly in December and has likely bottomed out for this event, with dissipation in store over the months ahead

 

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S., WHILE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS WET

Weather Anomaly Severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens

Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 10; Low from day 11 to 15.

Model Change (from previous update): Significant change in the temperatures (10-day).

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Above normal temperatures (3-10 °F above normal) are expected across winter wheat crop belts during next 10-days
• In the 11-15-dayoutlook, colder temperatures are expected in the Southern Plains, while above-normal temperatures will persist in the Northern Plains and Northwest.
• Wet spells (5-15 mm above normal) are restricted to Southern Plains wheat crop belts, while the rest of the U.S. will experience dry conditions

 

Brazil: Scattered showers in central Brazil have been heavy over the last few days, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers will be widespread early this week, but should thin out with time. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in later this week will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

Argentina: Rainfall has been running below-normal for a while across southern and central areas while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through this week. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

Northern Plains: Temperatures continue to be largely above normal into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may push east of the region. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures continue to be above normal for the next few days. A system will move through early on Thursday with scattered rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat, which is now at risk for a shot of colder air that inevitably will return at some point this month. Snow falling later this week will help to protect wheat from damage in the short-term, but there is a much larger long-term risk.

Midwest: Temperatures continue above normal for the next few days. However, it is still cold enough for limited showers across the north to become freezing rain or snow for Tuesday. A pair of systems will move through later this week and weekend. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow for the Upper Midwest. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Models may trend downward though as the pattern switches to allow a few clippers to move through next week.

Delta: Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain later this week and should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

Europe: Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern is in place this week, which will continue this trend. It will be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill.

Black Sea: The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack that is now building. Warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow, however. Models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

 

The player sheet for 1/6 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 336,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to China in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 7.
• Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 2 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.113m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.325m bbl vs 22.944m a week ago

 

US CROP EXPORTS: 136,000 Tons of Soybeans to China

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announces export sales activity on its website:

• USDA corrects earlier Jan. 6 announcement to: 136,000 tons of soybeans to China and 206,700 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
• Both sales are for the 2025-26 marketing year

 

US winter wheat ratings decline in Plains states, USDA data shows

Condition ratings for winter wheat declined during December in Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat producer, and in several other Plains states, data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed on Tuesday.

The USDA issued its last national winter wheat ratings of the season on November 24, reporting 48% of the U.S. crop was in good-to-excellent condition. Over the winter, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service releases monthly ratings for select states. The government will resume weekly U.S. crop progress reports in April.

The USDA rated 60% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, as of January 6, down from 62% in late November. Wheat ratings also declined during December in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas, but improved in Montana.

About 40% of the winter wheat crop nationally was in an area experiencing drought, as of December 30, the USDA said last week, up from 38% the previous week and 26% a year earlier.

Farmers in the Plains states grow hard red winter wheat, the largest U.S. wheat class, which is milled into flour for bread.

Ratings improved in Illinois, where farmers grow soft red winter wheat used to make cookies and snack foods, but ratings declined in Ohio and North Carolina, two other soft wheat states. The USDA rated 64% of the Illinois crop as good-to-excellent by January 6, up from 56% in late November.

 

China buys more US soybeans, total purchases approach 10 million tons

• USDA reports 336,000 tons sold to China for 2025/26
• Latest sales to ship March to May during peak Brazil shipping period
• China’s total US purchases estimated at 8.5 million to nearly 10 million tons

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, as the world’s top buyer continues purchasing from the United States following a late October trade truce.

The cargoes, totalling around 600,000 metric tons, are for shipment between March and May, the traders said, which is the peak shipping season for rival supplier Brazil.

China’s total purchases from the latest U.S. crop were now estimated at 8.5 million to nearly 10 million tons, according to traders and analysts, representing up to 80% of the 12 million metric tons that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by the end of February.

“There were more U.S. cargoes bought by Sinograin and total purchases are very close to 10 million tons,” said one of the traders with direct knowledge of the deals. “We think China will buy a couple of million tons more to meet the target.”

On Tuesday morning, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported private sales of 336,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025/26 season that ends on August 31, bringing China’s total confirmed purchases since October to nearly 6.9 million tons. In addition, a sizeable share of the roughly 3 million tons in sales confirmed by the USDA to undisclosed buyers is thought to be to China.

China’s buying has underpinned Chicago soybean futures Sv1 in recent weeks, helping the market end 2025 on a positive note. Futures prices have recovered from the resumption of imports from the United States following a thaw in Beijing–Washington relations. However, many farmers are still suffering even with trade aid payments. The Chicago Board of Trade’s most-active soybean contract Sv1settled 5-3/4 cents lower at $10.56-3/4 per bushel on Tuesday, compared with closer to $10 a year ago.

Beijing has stepped up U.S. soybean purchases despite a domestic supply glut driven by record South American arrivals and weak demand. Sinograin held three public auctions last month to make room for U.S. shipments.

U.S. soybeans remain costlier than newly harvested Brazilian soybeans, although their premium has narrowed due to a strengthening Brazilian real and weaker U.S. dollar, analysts said.

“Even though Brazil is harvesting, the U.S. is not out of line with Brazil prices,” said Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Marketing.

 

Brazil December Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports rose 69% in December from a year ago
• Beef exports rose 51% y/y
• Corn exports rose 44% y/y

 

Indonesia palm oil production outlook unchanged amid rainy season

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 INDONESIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION: 51.2 [46.2–56.2] MILLION TONNES, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Indonesia palm oil production outlook is maintained at 51.2 million tonnes, unchanged from the last update. Adverse weather has continued to weigh on field operations, though impacts were region specific.

Following the devastating floods and landslides in November, much of the Sumatra region remained under persistent heavy rainfall throughout December 2025, marking November and December as the peak of the rainy season. Several parts of northern and western Sumatra continued to experience saturated soils, localized flooding, and mobility constraints.

Looking ahead, the EC weather model signals mixed conditions over the next 15 days. The southern part of Sumatra is expected to remain wet, raising concerns given already saturated soils, while Kalimantan should see milder weather.

 

Malaysia palm oil production outlook steady, supported by moderated weather conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 MALAYSIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION: 19.6 [19.1–20.1] MILLION TONNES, UP 2.1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Malaysia palm oil production outlook is raised to 19.6 million tonnes, up 2.1% from the last update.

Weather conditions in December showed notable improvement compared with November’s flooding rains. Northern Peninsular Malaysia turned significantly drier, allowing soils to drain and enabling field operations to be normalized. Meanwhile, southern Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak experienced wetter conditions, which slowed harvesting and transports in certain areas. However, these impacts were relatively minor and marked a clear reduction in weather-related risks compared with November.

In addition to uneven weather across key regions, December’s palm oil output slowed as expected due to the seasonal low crop cycle. Despite this, industry sources estimated that Malaysia’s 2025 annual palm oil production output (Jan-Dec) would surpass 20 million tonnes for the first time, supported in part by improved labour availability that enhanced harvesting efficiency.

Looking ahead, the EC weather forecast model points to generally drier conditions across East Malaysia and most parts of Peninsular Malaysia. These conditions should aid ongoing field recovery. However, the seasonally low-yield period through Q1 2026 will continue to cap near-term production potential.

 

Indonesia may seize another 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations in 2026

President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday said that Indonesia may seize an additional 4 million to 5 million hectares (12 million acres) of palm oil plantations this year.

Last year, his task force, which comprises the military, the police and state prosecutors, took over 4.1 million hectares said to be operating illegally in forest areas, targeting major palm oil companies and smallholder farmers alike.

“We have controlled, have taken over 4 million hectares of palm oil plantations that have violated the laws. Isn’t that right, state attorney?” Prabowo said at a rice harvest ceremony with farmers.

“In 2026 maybe we will seize 4 or 5 million more,” he said.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, has a total of 16.8 million hectares of palm oil plantations.

Launched in early 2025, the military-backed campaign has unnerved the palm oil industry, with analysts predicting that in combination with Indonesia’s ambitious biodiesel plans, the seizures could put even more upward pressure on global prices by disrupting production.

Some 1.7 million hectares of the seized plantations were transferred to state-owned company Agrinas Palma Nusantara, transforming the firm from an infrastructure services company to the world’s largest palm oil company by area.

Attorney General Sanitiar Burhanuddin last month said the government could collect $6.5 billion in fines from palm oil companies implicated in last year’s seizure.

 

Brazil unclear whether beef in transit to China subject to new import quotas

The Brazilian government still does not know whether beef in transit to China will be considered part of the new import quotas that were announced by Beijing last week, a government official said on Tuesday.

Herlon Brandao, head of the statistics department of Brazil’s trade ministry, said the volumes of Brazilian beef in transit, based on available information, would represent “a small” amount in relation to the roughly 1.5 million metric tons of beef that the South American country exported to China last year.

China has imposed an additional 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels from key suppliers, including Brazil, Australia and the U.S., as part of a move to protect its domestic beef industry.

Brazil’s beef sector is worried about the uncertainty surrounding the rules.

“Chinese authorities have made it clear that the volume will be calculated based on actual entries into the country from January 1, 2026, regardless of previously signed contracts, cargo in transit, or products already shipped,” Sindifrigo-Mato Grosso, a beef trade lobby in Brazil’s Mato Grosso state, said in a statement on Tuesday.

The group added that if this “interpretation is confirmed without any revision,” Brazil will have to deduct approximately 350,000 tons from its assigned 2026 quota, which is the volume it estimates of cargos held in Chinese ports awaiting customs clearance, on ships in transit, or stockpiled at Brazilian ports.

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry did not have an immediate comment regarding the concerns expressed by the country’s beef industry. Around 53% of Brazil’s beef exports went to China in 2025, bringing in $8.8 billion in revenue, according to fresh trade data.

China has set the new import quota for Brazilian beef at 1.106 million tons for 2026. It will gradually rise to 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028, according to Beijing’s announcement.

 

Brazil Beef Production to Decline 2% in 2026, Report says

Brazilian beef production is expected to decline by 200,000 tons in 2026 — about 2% of total output—following four consecutive years of female cattle slaughter, analysts at Itaú BBA wrote in a report.

• The world’s largest beef producer needs to diversify its export destinations after China imposed quotas on beef imports, as the country accounts for nearly half of total beef exports, according to the report
• Other South American countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, have received larger quotas, which could lead to a reorganization of regional trade flows
  • “In this context, Brazil could expand its supply to neighboring markets,” the report said, as those countries might increase exports to China
• Brazil also has conditions to amplify its exports to US after Trump lifted tariffs

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in December: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 136 points in Dec. from 139 in Nov., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component unchanged from Nov. at 128 points
• Future expectations down by 4 points
• “In addition to rising concerns about tariff policy impacts on agriculture, almost 9 out of 10 (86%) corn and soybean growers said they were concerned about increasing competition from Brazil,” according to Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

Corteva, BP Seek Farm Partnerships for Green Jet Fuel Push

Seed supplier Corteva Inc. and energy company BP are seeking partnerships with farmers, processors and others in a bid to benefit from an expected surge in demand for biofuels aimed at curbing emissions from travel.

The companies on Wednesday launched Etlas, which will convert mustard seed, sunflower and canola crops sourced from farmers in North America, South America and Europe into green jet fuel and renewable diesel.

“We are going to be focusing during 2026 on establishing those partnerships,” said Ignacio Conti, Corteva’s global business development director, who will serve as chief executive officer of Etlas. “That is going beyond just farmers. We’re going to be making partnerships with aggregators and crushers.”

The effort comes as demand for sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is forecast to multiply more than tenfold to 4.5 billion gallons by 2030, according to research from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. SAF accounted for just 0.3% of global jet fuel demand in 2024, BNEF data show, but is expected to increase to 3.8% over the next four years.

Demand is climbing as major airlines seek to cut aviation emissions, while the European Union, UK and others roll out mandates and incentives to drive use of SAF, which is typically produced from agricultural feedstocks or waste oils.

Philipp Schoelzel, BP’s senior vice president of biofuels growth, said in a statement that Etlas is expected to “deliver attractive returns” as it strengthens BP’s position in biofuels.

The joint-venture, first announced in 2024, aims to deliver one million metric tons of feedstock a year, producing more than 800,000 tons of biofuel by the mid-2030s, the companies said. Initial supplies to be available in 2027 for use in co-processing at refineries and in dedicated biofuel plants.

Etlas plans to source mustard seeds, canola and sunflowers, all of which have high oil content, from producers growing the crops as cover plants to improve and protect soil on existing farmland, Conti said. By the mid-2030s, he said he hopes Etlas will operate on 3.5 million acres and be positioned to supply close to 10% of the EU’s sustainable aviation fuel market.

“We are going to generate consistency of supply of these types of feedstocks to these refineries and fuel consumers,” Conti said. “In the end, we are going to get a sustainable aviation fuel that will help the aviation sector to really reduce the carbon emissions.”

The partnership launches as Corteva moves to split its seed and pesticide businesses. The spinoff of the seed segment, which will be led by Corteva Chief Executive Chuck Magro, is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026.

 

December weather favourable for Ukrainian winter grain crops, scientists say

December was favourable for Ukrainian winter grain crops after sowing over September-October was delayed due to unfavourable weather conditions, Ukraine’s Academy of Science said on Tuesday.

“As of the end of December, winter grain crops on most of the sown areas in Ukraine did not cause any particular concern,” the scientists said in a monthly report.

Ukraine traditionally produces winter grains – winter wheat and barley, which are sown in autumn and harvested in the summer of the following year.

Winter grains typically have higher yields than spring grains, but weather risks are also quite high.

Ukraine’s economy ministry has said farmers had sown about 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat and 586,100 hectares of winter barley for the 2026 harvest, mostly the same acreage as farmers sowed a year earlier.

 

 

 

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