Global Ag News For Jan 6.2026

TOP HEADLINES

India reported bird flu outbreaks on farms in Kerala state, WOAH says

India reported 11 outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu on farms in the southern Kerala state last month, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said on Monday.

The spread of avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has raised concerns among governments and the poultry industry after it ravaged flocks around the world in recent years, disrupting supply, fuelling higher food prices and raising the risk of human transmission.

The H5N1 virus caused the death of a total of 54,100 birds, mostly ducks, the Paris-based WOAH said, citing a report from the Indian authorities. Another 30,289 birds were subsequently culled as a precaution.

The outbreaks were detected from December 9 and were confirmed on December 22, the report says. They were the first ones reported among poultry since May, the report says.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil up 0.45.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 15 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 1.29.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 44; Palm oil up 14; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 24.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.60%) at 3990.

There were changes in registrations (-375 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,055 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 5 were: SRW Wheat down 4,044 contracts, HRW Wheat up 267, Corn down 11,335, Soybeans down 2,077, Soymeal down 3,838, Soyoil down 860.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth will dominate U.S. crop regions through mid-January in a favorable outlook for dormant winter wheat
• SOUTH AMERICA: Better rains will overspread Argentina through the next 10 days in a very positive trend for corn/soybean development
• EAST ASIA: Warm temperatures and slightly dry conditions will prevail over most of China through the next couple weeks, with favorable impacts on winter wheat
• SOUTH ASIA: Cool temperatures are in store for northern India through the next 1-2 weeks, a positive trend for wheat development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is weakening, but remains in its negative phase which supports U.S. winter warmth and dry conditions in Southern Brazil

DROUGHT RISKS WILL INCREASE ACROSS BRAZIL INTO LATE JANUARY, WHILE ARGENTINA RAINS WILL IMPROVE

What to Watch:

• Argentina will trend wetter with moderate temperatures into late January in a very positive outlook for corn/soybeans
• Heat/dryness risks will become focused on Central-West and Southeast Brazil into the foreseeable future in a negative outlook for crop development
• Moderate weather is in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans

  

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Midwest – West: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Midwest – East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 1/5 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 21,500 corn, buyers of 11,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• U.S. CORN SALES DECLINE, SOYBEAN SALES RISE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday said net U.S. corn export sales fell to 756,419 metric tons in the week ended December 25, the lowest for any week since early September. Net U.S. soybean sales rose in that same period to 1,244,136 tons, up 27% from a week earlier.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 7.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Dec. 25

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 462k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 308k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Dec. 25

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 39.4k tons of the 53.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

US Inspected 1.207m Tons of Corn for Export, 981k of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 1, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 183k tons vs 319k the previous wk, 413k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 981k tons vs 774k the previous wk, 1,296k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,207k tons vs 1,335k the previous wk, 877k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 1

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 1 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 397k tons of the 981k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

 

StoneX raises outlook for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop

Brazil’s soybean production is expected to reach 177.6 million metric tons in 2025/26, consultancy firm StoneX said on Monday, raising its outlook by 0.2% from a December projection.

• The revision reflects higher yields in top farm state Mato Grosso and favorable December weather, StoneX said.
• “The outlook remains optimistic, pointing to record production, though late areas depend on favorable weather through mid-March,” it said in a statement.
• The country’s total corn crop was estimated at 134.3 million tons in 2025/26, roughly unchanged from a previous forecast.

 

Ukraine farm exports fall 8.4% in December, traders union says

Ukrainian exports of key agricultural commodities fell to 3.28 million metric tons in December from 3.58 million tons in November, mostly due to smaller shipments of wheat and soybeans, traders union UGA said on Monday.

Ukraine is a large European grower and exporter of corn, wheat, barley and oilseeds.

UGA said on the Telegram messenger that Ukrainian wheat exports fell to 619,000 tons in December from 958,000 a month earlier while shipments of soybeans more than halved to 203,000 tons.

UGA does not give reasons for the decline in shipments, but analysts and farmers’ union UAC have previously pointed to the the introduction of export duties on oilseeds. The ongoing Russian attacks on seaports have also significantly slowed down export shipments.

The Ukrainian economy ministry said last week that the country had exported 15.4 million tons of grain so far in the 2025/26 July-June season versus 21.9 million tons in the same period of 2024/25.

Agricultural exports dominate Ukraine’s total exports after traditionally significant shipments of metal and chemicals fell sharply following the start of the war with Russia.

 

Brazil’s soy exports hit record in 2025, data from shipping agency Cargonave shows

Soybean shipments from Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed, hit a record of 108.68 million metric tons in 2025, data from shipping agency Cargonave published on Monday showed.

The figure represents an 11.7% climb from 2024, and comes after a record soy harvest in Brazil last year, as well as extensive purchases from China, which avoided buying the oilseed from the United States for much of the year due to a dispute over tariffs.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Low profitability keeps imports essential

Sharp declines in wheat prices throughout 2025 may keep profitability low for Brazilian producers. In this context, no significant expansion is projected for the area planted to wheat in the first half of the year, which should preserve Brazil’s dependence on imports to meet domestic demand. Exports, in turn, may absorb between 25% and 30% of national output, helping to mitigate downward pressure on domestic prices, even though import parity is likely to remain the main driver of quotations.

Wheat production in the second half of 2025 was similar to that of the previous season, while imports from August to November totaled 2 million tons, boosting domestic availability of the cereal.

According to Conab, imports from August 2025 to July 2026 are expected to reach 6.7 million tons, indicating that purchases between December 2025 and July 2026 will intensify compared with the pace observed in the first four months of the crop.

Conab estimates domestic availability at more than 16 million tons between August 2025 and July 2026, up 5.3% from the previous season. Of this total, around 11.8 million tons are expected to be absorbed by domestic consumption, while 2.24 million tons should be exported during the period. Even so, ending stocks in July 2026 are projected at 2 million tons, equivalent to 8.7 weeks of consumption – the highest stock-to-use ratio since 2020.

In this scenario, no consistent price recovery is expected in early 2026. Moreover, imports are likely to continue pressuring the market throughout the year, as imported wheat remains competitive with domestic output, a situation reinforced by higher supply from Brazil’s main supplier, Argentina. According to data from the Bolsa de Cereales, Argentina’s wheat production in the 2025/26 season is estimated at 27.8 million tons, a new record.

 

Top Soy Traders Exit Pact That Protects Amazon Forests

A group representing some of the world’s largest soybean traders is exiting a landmark deal created in Brazil to protect the Amazon against deforestation.

Industry group Abiove, which has among its associates trading giants Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., Bunge Global SA, Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus Co., said in a statement Monday it is withdrawing from the Soy Moratorium, adding the agreement created in 2006 “fulfilled its historical role.”

The move is a major setback to the 19-year-old initiative praised by environmentalists that has been facing increasing criticism from farmers in the country.

The moratorium is a pact according to which traders are not allowed to source soybeans from Amazon lands deforested after 2008. The agreement was contested by farmer groups such as Aprosoja Mato Grosso, who argue the deal imposes a stricter rule than Brazil’s own national legislation on forest protection.

Abiove’s announcement comes after the top soybean-growing state of Mato Grosso enacted a law removing tax benefits from traders who obey the moratorium. A November Supreme Court decision ruled partly in favor of the state, and as of Jan. 1 traders supporting the pact no longer receive tax benefits. The attorney general has requested a four-month delay to implementing the law.

“The Soy Moratorium was not abolished by legal imposition: it still exists, but it was consciously undermined by the voluntary decision of companies to withdraw,” WWF Brazil, an environmental nonprofit, said in a note. “In doing so, these companies signaled their willingness to prioritize access to tax incentives funded with public resources, to the detriment of tackling deforestation and taking responsibility for the climate crisis.”

 

Bunge Confirms Strike on Dnipro Plant, Says No Injuries

• Strike on plant of crop trader Bunge in Ukrainian city of Dnipro resulted in the spill of 300 tons of sunflower oil, mayor Borys Filatov says on Telegram
• US-based Bunge confirmed that part of its facility in Ukraine was hit and said it’s assessing the damage
  • “Our immediate focus is on the safety of the people at the site and on restoring operations,” company spokesperson says
• Bunge added that it’s working with local authorities to mitigate the impact of the spill and confirmed that no one was injured at the facility

 

 

 

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