Global Ag News For Jan 2.2026

TOP HEADLINES

US Rice, Cotton Farmers Get Biggest Payments in $12 Billion Aid

American growers of rice and cotton stand to get the biggest payments in the US Department of Agriculture’s $12 billion aid package, according to long-awaited details released Wednesday.

The Farmer Bridge Assistance Program includes $11 billion in one-time payments expected by the end of February for farmers of crops ranging from corn and soybeans to peanut and sorghum, as well as $1 billion for sugar and specialty crops.

President Donald Trump unveiled the package earlier this month, but the relief plan lacked specifics on how much each farmer would be paid. Growers planning for next year’s planting have awaited those details as they face financial pressure from low crop prices and high costs for fertilizer, seeds and machinery.

Payments top out at $132.89 per acre for rice and $117.35 for cotton, with a low of $8.05 for flax, according to the USDA. For soybeans, considered the poster child of the US-China trade dispute, farmers can apply for payments of $30.88 per acre and for corn, the most widely grown US crop, payments were set at $44.36 per acre.

“These one-time payments give farmers the bridge to continue to feed and clothe America and the world while the Trump administration continues opening new markets and strengthening the farm safety net,” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said in the statement.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

US market will open at 8:30AM

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 in SRW, down 18 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 25; Soymeal down $8.00; Soyoil down 0.66.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 59 ringgit (-1.46%) at 3991.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,430 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 31 were: SRW Wheat up 2,899 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,774, Corn up 5,462, Soybeans up 5,008, Soymeal down 1,910, Soyoil up 3,686.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 02 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above normal temperatures are expected across the U.S. except Northeast over the next 15 days. Wet spells persist across the U.S., but precipitation remains below normal levels, except in the Midwest and Southwest.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The Pampas remains cooler with below-normal rainfall, while heavy rains are confined to northeastern Argentina. In contrast, Brazil experiences wet conditions and near normal to warmer temperatures.
• EUROPE: Colder temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions expected to experience wet weather.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed temperatures in China. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast Asia, southern India, and central Japan.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates no active phase, which does not support any significant weather activity across the Asian region over the next 15 days.

ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR CORN/SOYBEAN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Wet spell across the central Pampas
• Isolated heavy rains in Central Brazil

Brazil: Soybeans will continue to fill pods across central Brazil and this will accelerate in January. Rain showers will be more widespread across central Brazil through the upcoming weekend and showers also look to continue across southern Brazil, favorable for maturing corn. A brief break in the rain is possible late this weekend into early next week across southern Brazil and showers could become more scarce across east-central Brazil later next week.

Argentina: Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. While a few isolated showers are possible in the north through the rest of the week, mostly dry conditions are expected in central and southern areas, which could increase stress on developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: Temperatures have been fluctuating between above and below average as clipper systems tag the eastern Dakotas this week. By late this weekend, a dramatic warm up is expected throughout most of the region that could last into at least early next week. Precipitation through the weekend is expected to remain relatively light with any quick-moving systems that pass through.

Central/Southern Plains: After a quick cold spell earlier this week, temperatures will start recovering above average through the rest of the week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns towards mid-January.

Midwest: Clipper systems will continue to provide rounds of light snow to northern and eastern areas through the weekend and temperatures could dive below average behind some of these clippers. By early next week, a major warm up could develop before larger systems from the West start arriving mid-week. Another blast of Arctic air could redevelop closer to January 10.

Delta: Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River last week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Showers will be limited through the weekend with the next large system not arriving until the middle of next week. More consistent precipitation is needed to bring water levels up.

Europe: A larger system moves through Friday and Saturday across the southwest, benefiting vegetative wheat in Spain. Widespread showers could favor southern Europe late this weekend or early next week, favorable for vegetative winter wheat. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Temperatures will remain below average in the north before eventually spreading into southern Europe early next week.

Black Sea: Light snow showers favor Ukraine and southwest Russia throughout the rest of this week with some areas of heavy snow in the Caucasus. Brief cold snaps through early next week could cause some winterkill in areas without adequate snow cover. Multiple large systems could move through Ukraine and southwest Russia during the first half of next week, increasing snow cover in some areas.

Australia: Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress. Most precipitation favors eastern Australia going into next week with southern and western areas remaining relatively dry.

China: Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. A front from central China provided limited showers in eastern areas during the middle of this week. Very little is forecast going into early January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn’t reverse over the winter.

 

The player sheet for 12/31 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is January 7.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 982.3K Tons of Soybeans Week of Dec. 18

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Dec. 18.

• Soybean sales fell to 982k tons vs 2,425k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 194k tons vs 442k in previous week
• Corn sales rose to 2,224k tons vs 1,744k in previous week

 

Russia Wheat Export Forecast Raised at SovEcon on Better Margins

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in 2025-26 by 400k tons to 44.6m tons, citing a “strong shipment pace” and improving export margins.

• Exports have been robust in recent months, with December shipments seen at 4.2m tons, close to the record for that month
  • November exports reached 5.1m tons, setting a record for that month
• Buyers that had delayed purchases in the hopes of lower prices have returned to the market, SovEcon said in a note
  • Domestic prices have eased, while export prices have held near $230/ton FOB, allowing margins to turn “slightly positive”
• Total Russian grain exports are now forecast at 52.9m tons, up 300k tons from November’s estimate
  • Barley exports now estimated at 3.8m tons, up 200k tons
  • Corn export forecast raised to 2.5m tons, up 100k tons
• “We do not rule out further upward revisions to the export forecast, though slow farmer selling and a strong ruble remain key headwinds”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• NOTE: Russia held talks with the country’s major grain traders in September to boost exports after a sluggish start to the season

 

India expects colder January, lifting winter crop prospects

India is set to see below-average maximum and minimum temperatures in January, the weather office said on Thursday, raising the prospect of higher yields for key winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas.

The country is also likely to experience an above-average number of cold-wave days, particularly across central and eastern India, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told an online news conference.

“Over parts of Vidarbha and adjoining Marathwada, as well as parts of Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, we expect one to three additional cold-wave days in January,” he said.

Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country’s top wheat-growing regions.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

In recent years, maximum and minimum temperatures from January to March have been above normal, adversely affecting yields of winter crops.

This year, however, minimum temperatures across most parts of the country are likely to stay below average, except in some areas of the northwest and northeast, Mohapatra said.

Rainfall in northern and northwestern states is likely to remain below average during January–March, he said.

Farmers have so far planted winter-sown crops on 61.4 million hectares since sowing began on October 1, up 1.1% from a year ago, data from the farm ministry showed.

“Temperatures in wheat and rapeseed-growing states have been conducive to crop growth, and if they remain normal to below normal, we can certainly expect bumper yields this year,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

 

USDA November soybean crush seen at 225.239 mln bushels, analysts say

U.S. soy processors likely crushed 6.758 million short tons, or 225.239 million bushels, of soybeans in November, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Friday.

If that average of estimates gathered from seven analysts is realized, the crush would be down 5.0% from the 237.035 million bushels crushed in October, an all-time monthly high, but still the second-largest monthly crush on record.

Crush estimates ranged from 219.5 million to 233.4 million bushels, with a median of 225.0 million bushels.

The USDA’s next monthly Fats and Oils report is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Friday, January 2.

U.S. soybean crush rates have soared to historic highs after an expansion in crush capacity triggered by rising demand for soyoil to produce biofuels.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of November 30 were estimated at 1.906 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from four analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.594 billion to 2.100 billion pounds, with a median of 1.965 billion pounds.

The average estimate reflects a 7.0% increase from stocks of 1.781 billion pounds at the end of October and an 18.2% increase from stocks of 1.613 billion pounds at the end of November 2024, according to USDA data.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for nearly all U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 216.041 million bushels in November, down 5.1% from a record-high 227.647 million bushels in October, while end-of-month oil stocks held by its members rose to 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.9% from October.

 

Argentina’s agricultural export revenues jump 25% in 2025, chamber says

Exports from Argentina’s agricultural sector totaled $31.34 billion in 2025, up 25% from the previous year, the CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters chamber said on Wednesday.

In December, according to the chamber, revenue reached $1.015 billion.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, as well as a major corn supplier.

 

Brazil’s AG Proposes Delay to Law Tied to Amazon Protection Pact

Brazil’s Attorney General has recommended a four-month delay to a state law that will remove tax benefits from crop traders that obey a landmark deal created to protect the Amazon against deforestation.

The top soybean-growing state of Mato Grosso earlier this year enacted the law involving the so-called Soy Moratorium, but political parties contested the move in the Supreme Court. A November court decision ruled partly in favor of the state, and as of Jan. 1 traders supporting the pact may no longer receive tax benefits.

Brazil’s Attorney General filed a motion on Dec. 30 requesting a 120-day postponement of the measure, and the establishment of a forum for dialogue among the parties involved.

The Soy Moratorium is a 19-year-old initiative in which traders are not allowed to source soybeans from Amazon lands deforested prior to 2008. While the pact has been praised by environmentalists, it’s faced criticism from farmers who argue the deal imposes a stricter rule than Brazil’s own national legislation on forest protection.

 

 

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