Global Ag News For Feb 5.2026

TOP HEADLINES

India’s sunflower oil imports to slide to four-year low on price premium

India’s sunflower oil imports are expected to drop around a tenth in 2025/26 to a four-year low as a growing price premium over rivals pushes buyers toward cheaper alternatives, trade officials said.

As a result, the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils is likely to increase imports of palm oil, a shift that could help reduce inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

“With sunflower oil prices rising, India is now likely to import only enough to meet its core demand of around 200,000–225,000 metric tons per month,” said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd, a leading importer of edible oils.

Crude sunflower oil from the Black Sea region is currently being offered at about $1,420 a metric ton on a cost, insurance and freight basis for March delivery to India, compared with around $1,165 for crude palm oil and $1,255 for crude soyoil.

Acharya and four dealers with global trade houses estimated that India’s sunflower oil imports would drop to 2.65 million tons in the marketing year ending in October, down from 2.94 million tons a year earlier and marking the lowest level since 2021/22.

The dealers declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

Russia and Ukraine account for more than two-thirds of global sunflower oil exports, but adverse weather in both countries tightened supplies and lifted prices in January to the highest level in more than three years, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

Argentina is offering sunflower oil at about $10 to $20 a ton cheaper than Black Sea supplies, following improved output, providing some relief for Indian buyers, a dealer said.

Sunflower oil is mainly consumed in India’s southern states, but consumers there are shifting toward palm oil, said a Mumbai-based dealer.

The trend was reflected in India’s palm oil imports in January, which jumped 51% from December, while sunflower oil imports fell 23%, according to dealers’ estimates.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal up $4.50; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 1/9 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 37 1/2; Soymeal up $7.00; Soyoil up 2.13.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4.2% in SRW, up 3.4% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 2.2%; Soybeans up 6.9%; Soymeal up 2.1%; Soyoil up 15.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil down 8; Palm oil down 46; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 17.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 17 ringgit (-0.40%) at 4208.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 4 were: SRW Wheat down 3,394 contracts, HRW Wheat down 698, Corn up 5,920, Soybeans up 16,470, Soymeal down 6,167, Soyoil up 5,955.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above‑normal temperatures are expected across the Plains, with wetter conditions in the Plains, Northeast, and the Southwest, and drier weather elsewhere in the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool and mostly wet conditions will persist across the northern corn and soybean belts of the Pampas and dry elsewhere, whereas central Brazil is expected to experience wetter conditions that may be favorable.
• EUROPE: Central and Western Europe will see above‑normal temperatures over the next five days, turning cooler in days 6–15, with moderate to heavy precipitation across the region.
• ASIA: Southeast Asia and India will see near‑normal to slightly cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, while China and Japan trend warmer during days 6–15. Mostly dry conditions will prevail across Asia, with only brief wet spells in Southeast Asia.
• AFRICA: Rains may delay cocoa harvesting in southern West Africa, while wet spells continue across the Free State regions in South Africa’s corn belt.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The MJO forecast indicates an inactive Phase 8, which is not expected to support active tropical weather over the next 15 days.

Brazil: Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren’t consistently heavier over the next two months.

Argentina: Dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rains fail to be widespread or heavy, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

Northern Plains: Warmer air is forecast through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

Central/Southern Plains: Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow in the region. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February, and may start later next week.

Midwest: Southern areas saw a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week, and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February.

Delta: Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. Rising temperatures are helping to break things up and melt any snow or ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern, but that may start up later next week.

 

The player sheet for 2/4 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 39,000 soybeans, buyers of 9,500 soymeal, and buyers of 9,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 130,480 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to unknown destinations in the current 2025/26 marketing year.
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE UPDATE: Algerian state agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 200,000 tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday. Traders had reported the purchase on Tuesday night but had not been able to estimate the tonnage bought in the tender, which sought a nominal 50,000 tons.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 11. Turkey’s disappointing harvest of barley and other grains last year generated a need for imports to stabilize prices and ensure sufficient supplies, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 10.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. A new tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley is expected to be issued by Jordan in coming days with anticipated submission of price offers on February 11, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers is February 11. Traders had expected a new announcement after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Jan. 29.

• Corn est. range 800k – 2,100k tons, with avg of 1,183k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 742k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1% to 25.136M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.66 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.956m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.965m

 

Soybeans Surge After Trump Says China Considering More Purchases

Soybean futures jumped more than 2% after US President Donald Trump said China is considering more purchases following a Wednesday call with leader Xi Jinping.

Trump in a social media post said China could lift its soybean count to 20 million tons in the current season, and then 25 million tons in the next season.

The comments come as traders have been waiting for the next steps in US-China negotiations after the Asian nation last month completed an initial commitment to buy 12 million tons.

“The relationship with China, and my personal relationship with President Xi, is an extremely good one, and we both realize how important it is to keep it that way,” Trump said.

 

China faces higher prices for further U.S. soybean buys to please Trump

• Trump eyes sale of 20 mln T of U.S. soybeans to China
• Trump, Xi spoke ahead of U.S. leader’s April visit
• U.S. soy price gap with Brazil widens, raising cost

Chinese soybean importers face much higher costs to bring in an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. cargoes, whose purchase President Donald Trump has said Beijing is weighing, as rival Brazilian supplies are far cheaper in their peak export season.

Still, Beijing could order purchases by state grain companies to please Trump ahead of his China visit planned for April, as it eyes other concessions from Washington, traders and analysts said.

“Is there a market logic at the moment for China procuring a bunch more U.S. soybeans, just as Brazil’s harvest comes in? No,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

“But could it smooth the path for an even more productive and lucrative state visit by Trump in April? Perhaps.”

Benchmark Chicago soybeans Sv1 traded near a two-month high on Thursday, underpinned by the expectations of Chinese demand.

China is considering buying 20 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current season, Trump said after talks on Wednesday with President Xi Jinping that he described as “very positive”.

China’s commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China’s state-run Sinograin and COFCO have already bought about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October trade talks with the United States, paying close to $100 million more than they would for Brazilian beans, based on market prices.

WIDENING PRICE GAP

Rising prices of U.S. soybeans have widened the gap with Brazilian cargoes, which would force Chinese buyers to shell out far higher premiums than they have paid since November, traders said.

U.S. soybeans for April shipment were quoted at $2.08 to $2.48 a bushel over the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soybean contract SK26, including cost and freight to China, versus Brazilian shipments at premiums of $1.18 to $1.33 a bushel.

“The spread between Brazilian and U.S. is around $50 per ton on FoB basis,” said a Singapore trader. “It doesn’t make commercial sense.”

At those levels, China would pay up to $400 million more for eight million tons of U.S. soybeans than for Brazilian cargoes.

PRIVATE CRUSHERS UNLIKELY TO STEP IN

Even with prices at par, private crushers would be unlikely to step in to buy, with Beijing still imposing a tariff of 13% on U.S. soybeans, versus one of 3% on Brazilian cargoes.

Private Chinese crushers have not bought a single cargo of U.S. soybeans in the season that began in September, preferring to turn instead to Brazil and Argentina, traders said.

Crush margins in China’s main processing hub of Rizhao have been negative since August.

Since December, Sinograin has held four auctions, selling about 2 million tons of imported soybeans from reserves to free up space for arriving U.S. shipments.

Traders said they expect more auctions after this month’s Lunar New Year holiday.

 

Ethanol Output Drops During Winter Storm

The winter storm seen last week cut into the production of ethanol in the U.S., according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

The EIA said in its weekly report Wednesday that average ethanol production for the week ended Jan. 30 fell to 956,000 barrels a day. That’s down 158,000 barrels a day from the prior week, and the lowest average output reported by the EIA since April 2024.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week said the winter storms that moved through the midwest last week interrupted the normal course of business for ethanol producers, with that business since resuming. Surveyed analysts had forecast daily production to fall as low as 900,000 barrels a day.

Ethanol inventories also fell, dropping nearly 300,000 barrels to 25.14 million barrels. That’s on the low-end of analyst expectations, which were surveyed between 25 million barrels and 25.7 million barrels.

CBOT corn futures are up 0.2% in morning trade, this after starting the day in the negative. Soybeans are up 1.4%, while wheat is down 0.4%.

 

Indonesia to raise mandatory share of bioethanol in gasoline to 10% by 2028, official says

Indonesia plans to impose a mandatory bioethanol content level of 10% for gasoline in 2028, energy ministry official Tri Winarno said on Thursday.

Indonesia is aiming to expand the use of biofuels made from palm oil and sugar cane to reduce imports and become more energy-self sufficient.

However, ethanol supply constraints have forced it to delay plans to raise the mandatory bioethanol content for gasoline.

Previously, the energy ministry said the mandatory bioethanol content level of 10% would be introduced in 2027 but that has now been pushed back to a year later.

“To reduce gasoline imports, the government has set a mandatory bioethanol target of 5% by 2025 which will increase to 10% by 2028,” Winarno told an energy seminar.

Indonesia did not meet the 2025 target because ethanol supplies were insufficient.

Indonesia plans to produce 0.80 million kilolitres of bioethanol by 2028, energy ministry data showed, with national gasoline demand at 39.9 million kilolitres.

The government will introduce a number of measures ahead of the implementation, including improvements to the quality of gasoline as the base fuel, increases in infrastructural capacity and the diversification of feedstocks, Winarno said.

 

Brazil soybean harvest season in full swing on schedule but upcoming rains warrant attention

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.7 [175.1–183.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is nearly unchanged at 178.7 [175.1–183.6] million tons, with harvest underway across most major producing regions following a healthy growing season, though upcoming rains through next week warranting attention. Our current median estimate is above the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 178 million tons (released on 12 January), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.1 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.63 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.9 million hectares and 3.66 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 176.1 million tons and 48.7 million hectares, respectively (released on 15 January).

Over the past two weeks, temperature patterns over Brazil’s major soybean areas have been mixed while precipitation has remained consistently below normal. Well above average temperatures were experienced throughout the Central-West and the northern half of the Southeast, while the South mostly remained cool. Nearly all production regions in Brazil received widespread precipitation totals between 20-150 mm during the period, though mostly below normal except for some far eastern areas. Harvest activities are in full swing across the top producers in the Central-West, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, largely on schedule at the moment but could slow down as mid-February unfolds due to the forecasted heavy rains next week and the following week, warranting close monitoring.

 

Improved weather boosts Brazil’s corn output and supports second-crop planting

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 139.0 [132.9–145.2] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil corn production is raised by 0.6% to 139.0 million tons due to recent and expected cool, wet weather and fast second-crop planting.

Over the past two weeks, key first-corn regions have experienced cooler or wetter conditions. Widespread above-average precipitation has enhanced soil moisture in Minas Gerais, Goiás, Bahia, and Mato Grosso, while typical to cool temperatures have supported corn crop maturation in the Far South, despite below-average precipitation. Satellite imagery-derived vegetation densities (NDVIs) have been maintained at elevated levels, reflecting positive crop development.

Weather forecasts suggest hot, dry weather may dominate in the South and Mato Grosso do Sul over the next two weeks, with precipitation deficits up to 60 mm. The expected weather and declining soil moisture could negatively affect first-crop corn maturation. In other regions of Brazil such as Central west, Southeast, Northeast and North, cooler and wetter weather are anticipated, which would continue to increase soil moisture and improve corn conditions.

Second-crop corn planting was 12% complete as of January 31, according to CONAB. In Mato Grosso, planting was 22.1% complete after a quick soybean harvest, compared to 6.2% last year. The fast second-corn planting could improve water access, lower drought risk, and boost yield potential.

 

Argentina soy production slightly down with pod fill in full swing amid lack of moisture

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.5 [46.2–48.6] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is slightly (<1%) decreased to 47.5 [46.2–48.6] million tons, as the crop’s critical pod-fill period unfolds under less-than-favorable conditions across key producing areas of the southeastern Pampas. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In January’s WASDE (released on 12 January), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in December.

Much of the southeastern Pampas saw a continuation of hot and dry conditions over the past two weeks, adding pressure on crops that are going though the critical pod-fill stages. Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Eastern Córdoba and southern Santa Fe (which combined account for nearly 80% of the country’s total soy production) mostly experienced above average temperatures during the period amid continued lack of moisture, deteriorating yield potential. The rest of the crop regions received near to above average rains, partially offsetting the deficient conditions in the Argentina’s core. Soil moisture levels are declining rapidly especially in Córdoba and central/southern Buenos Aires, while southern Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, and some parts of northern Buenos Aires are forecast to receive some meaningful precipitation next week, hinting mixed conditions on the way. Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery remain close to historical median levels across most core areas of the Pampas, but could decline fast if hot and dry weather persists, warranting attention.

 

Hot, dry weather cuts Argentina’s corn output, despite forecasts for possible cooler, wetter conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 56.0 [51.8–60.5] MILLION TONS, DOWN 3% FROM LAST UPDATE

January’s hot, dry weather reduced soil moisture and cut Argentina’s corn production outlook by 3% to 56.0 million tons.

Over the past month, the Pampas region has experienced 40-80 mm precipitation deficits, accompanied by above-average temperatures in the last two weeks. This hot, dry weather has reduced soil moisture throughout key corn-producing areas, except for La Pampa. Satellite-derived NDVI data shows significant declines of vegetation health in areas such as Marcos Juárez and Río Cuarto in Córdoba, Rosario del Tala in Entre Ríos, Casilda and Cañada de Gómez in Santa Fe, and Bolívar in Buenos Aires, confirming crop impacts associated with drought stress. Early-planted corn, now at late grain fill or maturation stages, has been less affected due to favorable early-season conditions. On the other hand, late-planted corn that is in the vegetative or pollination stages is suffering from low soil moisture, and decent rainfall is needed to support good crop conditions.

The latest EC model predicts that most of the Pampas will experience cooler and wetter conditions for the next two weeks, although Buenos Aires might see less rain. If these rains occur, they should help stabilize crop conditions and support corn yields. In contrast, the GFS model expects continuation of dry condition across the major corn-producing areas over the next 10 days, followed by possible heavy rainfall in the north and most of Buenos Aires. Due to ongoing drought stress in Argentina’s corn regions, it is important to monitor future weather developments closely.

Furthermore, according to Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, the presence of leafhoppers has been reported in Santa Fe and Entre Rios, posing a potential risk to corn production.

 

Recent dry weather bodes well for Paraguay soybean harvest

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.5 [10.8–12.1] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is raised by 1% to 11.5 [10.8–12.1] million tons, as recent dry weather conditions across core producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region bode well for the ongoing harvest. Our median production estimate is slightly above the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 2.89 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 3.09 tph, respectively).

 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL AND THE NORTHERN PAMPAS FOR MID‑FEBRUARY

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 1-10-days; Low in 11-15-days

Model Change (from previous update): Moderate rains across Central Brazil through 15-days.

 

 

 

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