Global Ag News for Feb 27.24

TOP HEADLINES

MARS Sees Morocco, Algeria Crop Yields Below Average on Drought

Cereal yields in Morocco and Algeria are seen 15–19% below the 5-year average, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday in a note.

• Cites “well-below-average crop growth in most of the main cereal-producing regions” in Morocco
• Also cites persistent dry conditions in Algeria that delayed sowing; “damage to crops seems to be irreversible in many western continental regions, while a rapid recovery of growth is observed in eastern central continental regions”
• Forecasts for Tunisia, Libya and Egypt are close to the 5-year average.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 11 3/4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 0.37.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 13 in HRS; Corn is up 9; Soybeans up 15 1/4; Soymeal up $4.90; Soyoil up 0.79.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 31 1/2 in SRW, down 40 1/2 in HRW, down 38 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 25 3/4; Soybeans down 75 3/4; Soymeal down $31.50; Soyoil down 1.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.9% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 9.7% in HRS; Corn is down 13.4%; Soybeans down 11.2%; Soymeal down 12.2%; Soyoil down 6.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 17 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 54; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 59. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 59 ringgit (+1.53%) at 3922.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 573 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 6 Corn; 219 Soybeans; 125 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 56 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 26 were: SRW Wheat down 8,019 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,840, Corn down 57,424, Soybeans down 22,495, Soymeal down 5,879, Soyoil down 8,309.

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil continued over the weekend but they’ll be isolated this week. That won’t last for long though as they fill back in this weekend. Southern areas saw showers increasing on Sunday and will see waves of showers through Thursday as a front waffles around the region. Showers are forecast to be more sporadic and shifting next week, but fairly widespread, which should help with the long-season crops in the south and the safrinha corn in the central.

Argentina: Scattered showers fell across northern areas with a somewhat stalled front this weekend. That front will waffle around northern areas through Wednesday. Smaller disturbances will move through southern Argentina this week with more muted shower potential with a better shot this weekend. Showers are not perfect, but as long as they keep coming with enough frequency, crop conditions may not fall from the overall good ratings currently enjoyed in the country. Some spots may be missed, however.

Europe: A large storm system started to bring waves of showers across most of the continent over the weekend. The main low will move into the Mediterranean and continue showers there throughout the week. More systems will try to follow a similar path later this week and next week, which would be beneficial for Spain and Italy, but be too wet in France and the UK. Temperatures continue to be much warmer than normal across the eastern half of the continent, promoting early awakening from dormancy and growth.

Australia: The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln went through western areas with some heavy rain over the weekend, but was mostly across northern areas of farmland. Northeastern areas also saw showers this weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected for this week, but showers should pop up this weekend in variable fashion across much of the country. Soil moisture is low in many areas well ahead of the harvest and subsequent wheat planting and will need much more rain to fall over the next couple of months.

Northern Plains: It was mostly warm and dry over the weekend, though there were some isolated showers on Sunday. A much stronger system and cold front will push through the region Monday and Tuesday. Areas of snow are expected, along with a band of moderate to heavy snow in the northwest. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind this front, but only last for about two days before they pop back up again above normal by Thursday. The active weather pattern continues this weekend with another big storm system moving through with a mix of rain and snow and another drop in temperatures.

Central/Southern Plains: It was very warm and dry over the weekend. A strong cold front will move through on Tuesday with limited showers, but strong winds and a quick burst of cooler air. That won’t last long as temperatures soar back above normal again on Thursday. A secondary piece to the storm should bring some showers across the south on Thursday. Warm temperatures again could be significant going through the weekend, but another strong system will move through Sunday and Monday. That system will likely bring areas of heavier precipitation, including potential for heavy snow across the north, strong winds, and another drop in temperatures and they may settle into a more seasonable range.

Midwest: Some light to moderate snow moved through eastern areas of the region Friday into Saturday, but quickly melted in the above-normal temperatures that followed. Extreme warmth continues early this week ahead of a very strong cold front that will move through Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread showers, including some light snow will move through. Winds will be strong and temperatures will drop significantly behind the front. But that will only last about a day or so before temperatures pop right back up well above normal again for Thursday or Friday. Another big storm system is forecast to move through early next week as well, and could have similar impacts.

Delta: It was dry over the weekend. A cold front will move through with some isolated showers on Wednesday and more showers will follow behind it on Thursday night into Friday. Another system will move through with more showers early next week. Soil moisture continues to be much improved ahead of spring planting.

The player sheet for Feb. 26 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 172,300 metric tons of wheat in a tender on Friday to be sourced from the United States, Canada and Australia.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 88,800 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States and China
• FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

 

US Inspected 1.242m Tons of Corn for Export, 975k of Soybeans

In week ending Feb. 22, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 975k tons vs 1,291k the previous wk, 766k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,242k tons vs 1,052k the previous wk, 649k a yr ago
• Wheat: 482k tons vs 420k the previous wk, 653k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 22

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 22 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 599k tons of the 975k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

Kansas, Oklahoma Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Improve: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of Feb. 25, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Kansas good/excellent rating raised to 57% for the week ending Sunday vs 54% in the week ending Jan. 28
• Oklahoma conditions raised to 70% good/excellent vs 63%

All Berths Operating at Brazil’s Second-Largest Port After Fire

Paranaguá port, Brazil’s second-largest port, now has all its berths running regularly after a fire Friday on the conveyor-belt system of its export corridor, according to an emailed note.

• Operations in the export corridor resumed at 1pm local time on Feb. 24, with exports at berths 212 and 213 and an import operation at berth 214, harbor authority said
  • The fire had impacted a conveyor belt that supplies berth 214, according to a previous note from the authority
  • Ships in berths 212 and 213 had been moved away from docks as a precaution
• Port authority started maintenance services on all the affected equipment in the export corridor on Saturday
• Cause of the fire still under investigation by authorities, according to the harbor authority

Brazil 2023/24 Soy Harvest 40% Done as of Feb. 22: AgRural

Compares with 32% a week earlier and also 33% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Production is now seen at 147.7m tons, a reduction of 2.4m tons over the estimate released in mid-January
• Summer corn harvest 42% done in Brazil’s Center-South region as of Feb. 22, compared with 34% a week earlier and 27% a year before
• Winter corn seeding is at 73%, compare with 59% a week earlier and 56% a year before

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports Fall to 32.2M Tons in 2023

Indonesia’s palm oil exports declined to 32.2m tons in 2023, from 33.1m tons the previous year, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as Gapki.

• Domestic consumption in 2023 rose to 23.21m tons with biodiesel use at 10.65m tons, says Gapki chairman Eddy Martono on Tuesday
• Exports to China, India, US, Africa and Bangladesh rose in 2023, declined to EU and Pakistan
• Exports may decline as domestic demand rises this year
• Production seen stagnating in 2024
• Gapki sees palm oil trading at $950-$1,000 per ton in 1H

Indonesia 2024 Palm Oil Output May Grow 5% to 57.6M Tons: Gapki

Crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil production may still grow about 5% to 57.6m tons this year with additional output from small-holder estates, says M. Hadi Sugeng, secretary general of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as Gapki.

• Last year’s El Nino did not affect production this year, he says
• Domestic consumption seen rising, while exports seen at 32m-33m tons in 2024

Indonesia Dec. Palm Oil Exports 2.45m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports were 2.45m tons in December, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output was 4.376m tons
• Palm oil domestic consumption was 1.995m tons
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption was 991,000 tons

Indonesia sees 2024 biodiesel consumption rising to 12.5-13 mln kilolitres

Indonesia’s unblended biodiesel consumption in 2024 is seen rising to 12.5 million-13 million kilolitres from 12.2 million kilolitres last year, an energy ministry official said on Tuesday, leading to a possible fall in palm oil exports.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) had previously estimated that palm oil exports were expected to fall roughly 4% this year because of higher domestic demand for the vegetable oil as biodiesel feedstock while production growth remained modest. The world’s biggest palm oil producer and exporter has pushed a wide use of the palm oil-based fuel to reduce crude oil imports and shift to lower emission fuel.

“Biodiesel allocation for 2024 (is) set at 13.4 million kilolitres. For realisation, we hope around 12.5 million to 13 million kilolitres,” energy ministry official Edi Wibowo told an industry seminar.

The government has allocated 13.4 million kilolitres of biodiesel for this year as the country rolls out its 35% palm oil blend for biodiesel, a programme better known as B35. GAPKI previously estimated Indonesia’s palm oil output in 2024 would grow 4.9% annually to 55.8 million tons. Domestic consumption was expected to rise by 9% to 25.4 million tons, including 11.6 million tons for biodiesel feedstock.

Indonesia’s biodiesel production rose to 13.15 million kilolitres in 2023 from 11.82 million kilolitres in the previous year, data from the Indonesia Biofuel Producer Association (APROBI) showed. Meanwhile, exports stood at 187,810 kilolitres, down nearly half from 2022. The government said that biodiesel exports were hurt by restrictions imposed by importing countries.

Indonesia Mulls Higher Palm Oil Replanting Aid for Smallholders

Govt is mulling to raise replanting assistance for palm oil farmers to 60 million rupiah per hectare, from the current 30 million rupiah, Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto says after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

• Govt will simplify rules to speed up the replanting program
• NOTE: Govt targets replanting 180,000 hectares of palm oil plantation annually

Novorossiysk Grain Plant export shipments down 19% in Jan

Novorossiysk Grain Plant, part of the United Grain Company (UGC) group and the largest deep-sea grain terminal in the waters of the Azov-Black Sea basin, shipped 603,873 tonnes of grain for export in January, the company said. This was 18.6% less than the 742,287 tonnes shipped in January last year.

The shipments came to 4.673 million tonnes in the first seven months of the marketing year from July 2023 to June 2024, up 38% from the same period of the previous marketing year. Monthly export shipment records of 752,000 tonnes and 770,000 tonnes were set in August 2023 and October 2023, respectively.

Novorossiysk Grain Plant’s total storage capacity is 250,000 tonnes, and the depths at the quay wall allows for handling vessels with deadweight of up to 72,000 tonnes. The plant shipped a record 7.9 million tonnes of grain for export in 2023, up 70% from 2022. United Grain Company owns 51% of Novorossiysk Grain Plant, according to its list of affiliates as of June 30. Demetra Holding owns 35.36%.

Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $798.90/Ton for March

The trade ministry sets crude palm oil reference price for March at $798.90 per ton, Farid Amir, director for export of agriculture and forestry products at the ministry, says in a text message.

The reference price will keep CPO export tax for the period at $33/ton and the additional levy at $85/ton

WHEAT/CEPEA: Imports increase due to low supply of high-quality wheat

Although many agents from wheat mills claim to have stocks, purchasers who are willing to trade are searching for high-quality wheat. However, the supply of this product is low, due to problems in the crops caused by unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, agents have been purchasing wheat from the international market, especially from Mercosur countries.

Data from Secex indicate that, up to the third week of February, Brazilian wheat imports had totaled 383.95 thousand tons, more than the 291.63 thousand tons verified in February last year. Exports, in turn, amounted only 56.09 thousand tons, against 533.42 thousand tons in the same period of 2023.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between February 12 and 16, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 246.81/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 4.9742, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,227.69/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,254.29/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 230.77/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,147.92/ton – against BRL 1,182.46/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

Sellers, in turn, are focused on planning the new season. Productivity losses verified in previous years and the fact that domestic prices are at the lowest levels since 2020 may discourage wheat sowing activities.

According to data from Cepea, between February 16 and 23, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.32% in Santa Catarina and 0.28% in Paraná, but dropped 0.31% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved up 1.03% in Paraná, 2.58% in Santa Catarina and 2.53% in Rio Grande do Sul. On the other hand, prices decreased 0.76% in São Paulo. Dollar quotations moved up 0.4% against Real, at BRL 4.988 on Feb. 23.

BYPRODUCTS – The demand for wheat flour has increased over the last days, influenced by the expectation that consumers may replenish inventories. However, it was not enough to boost values. As for the wheat bran, the demand is currently low.

US Egg Production Rose 2.5% in January From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.27b eggs in January vs 9.05b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs rose 2.6% y/y to 7.98b
• Hatching eggs up 1.8% to 1.29b

US Farmers Sprinting to Spring as Mild Weather Warms Midwest

Ammonia prices in the US rose slightly last week as warm weather prompted the onset of pre-plant applications. An early start to spring gives farmers more time to consume inputs, supporting sales for producers such as CF, Nutrien and Mosaic. China’s declining energy prices are increasing nitrogen profitability, sending urea production rates soaring.

Chinese Urea Production Rates Soar on Low-Cost Coal

Profitable production economics are supporting China’s highest urea operating rates in over a decade, as well as its rapidly growing fertilizer stockpile. China is the marginal urea supplier and normally exports when prices exceed the cost of production, which we estimate at $225 a metric ton. A revival in Chinese urea operating rates in 1Q offers hope to those seeking low-cost tons in 2Q, when we believe the government’s export ban will likely end. China’s main consumption period is in late 1Q, and the producer normally returns to the global market afterward. When it exports, prices fall.

Urea is the most traded nitrogen fertilizer and a bellwether for the economics of nitrogen producers globally. Yara and CF Industries are the largest publicly listed dedicated producers.

 

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