Global Ag News For Feb 20.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Paraguay soybean production well on track for a record season

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.5 [10.8–12.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is unchanged at a record-high 11.5 [10.8–12.1] million tons, as favorable late season weather conditions across core producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region bode well for the ongoing harvest. Some wetness is expected next week, warranting attention. Our current production outlook is in line with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.5 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 3.03 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 3.09 tph, respectively).

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil down 0.63.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 21 in SRW, up 23 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil up 2.12.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 24 1/4 in SRW, up 22 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 76 1/4; Soymeal up $13.60; Soyoil up 5.40.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11.0% in SRW, up 9.7% in HRW, up 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 3.0%; Soybeans up 10.5%; Soymeal up 4.0%; Soyoil up 23.1%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 25 ringgit (-0.61%) at 4092.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 19 were: SRW Wheat up 1,934 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,708, Corn down 16,199, Soybeans up 8,413, Soymeal down 2,181, Soyoil up 5,204.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 19 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks may be limited to the U.S. Northern Plains in March, with a warm and active pattern to the south through drought risks may linger for the Midwest in a mixed outlook for crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: Brazil heat risks will be modest and transient through the next 10-15 days in a favorable outlook for most crops
• AFRICA: A round of very cool/wet weather through the next couple weeks across South Africa will aid late maize development after a recent dry spell
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Wet conditions through the next 1-2 weeks along the Vietnam Central Highlands will slow the Robusta coffee harvest
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Trans-Atlantic Dipole (TAD) is likely to persist in a negative phase event through March-May, supporting the prospects for a mild U.S. spring which is in line with the March outlook

 

MARCH COULD BE ANOTHER WILD MONTH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE U.S., THOUGH REGIONAL DROUGHT RISKS ALSO LOOM

What to Watch:

• Cold risks may be more limited to the U.S. Northern Plains and westward in March, with warmth overspreading most areas to the south/east
• An active storm track is likely to extend along the U.S. Plains next month, with generally dry conditions across the Midwest and especially to the south
• Warm/wet weather over the Southern U.S. Plains could be favorable for winter wheat development there, though crops to the east may suffer worsening drought risks in March

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Monday.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Monday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Monday.  

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures falling Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.  

Midwest – West: Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Midway – East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated showers west Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday.

 

The player sheet for 2/19 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Friday seeking up to 138,000 tons
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for price offers is February 25.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Feb. 12.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,550k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 606k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.4% to 25.588M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.649 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.118m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.126m

 

Brazil soybean production slightly up but local harvest delays warrant attention

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.8 [175.6–184.2] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is slightly (<1%) raised to 178.8 [175.6–184.2] million tons, with harvest well underway amid favorable late season weather across most major producing regions, though some local delays in the South and the Southeast warrant attention. A record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Our current median estimate is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 180 million tons (released on 10 February), which assumes total soy sowings at 49.4 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.64 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 48.8 million hectares and 3.67 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 178 million tons and 48.4 million hectares, respectively (released on 12 February).

The past two weeks featured a continued trend of warm and dry weather to Brazil’s major soybean areas. Most of the Central-West and South maintained below normal rainfall during the period, while some areas of the Southeast did receive near to above average precipitation occasionally. Temperatures remained consistently above normal throughout nearly all key producing regions, though will likely start to cool down later this week. As of 14 February, Brazil’s soybeans were 24.7% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (16 February), slightly behind last year’s pace of 25.5% and the 5-year average of 27.1%. The top producer Mato Grosso is reporting 60.7% of progress so far, well ahead of last year’s 47.3% and in line with the 5-year average of 59.9%, but some local delays are underway in Goiás (13.8% behind schedule) and São Paulo (8% behind schedule) in particular, warrant close monitoring. Nonetheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Recent beneficial rains bode well for Argentina soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [46.2–48.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is nearly unchanged at 47.4 [46.2–48.5] million tons, with the crop’s critical pod-fill in full swing amid favorable wet conditions, though insufficient rainfall totals in core areas of the southeastern Pampas demand attention. In February’s WASDE (released on 10 February), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in January. Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecasts production at 48.0 million tons.

Much of the Pampas saw a widespread precipitation pattern over the past two weeks, benefitting the soybean crop that is currently going through its critical pod-fill stages. Temperatures have been consistently cool as well, albeit some northern regions continued to experience abnormal warmth. While recent rains have been undoubtedly beneficial, the total amount remained rather insufficient across some key areas of the southeastern Pampas, warranting attention. Córdoba, eastern Buenos Aires, southern Entre Ríos, and some parts of Santa Fe (which collectively account for nearly 70% of the country’s total soy production) mostly received below average rainfall totals (between 5-30 mm below normal), still in need of further water supply. Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery are falling below historical median levels in many of these regions, warranting close monitoring. Fortunately for farmers, more rains are in the forecast through next week amid continued cool temperatures, which should help alleviate any remaining soil moisture concerns.

 

Despite dryness in the South, Brazil’s weather remains favorable for corn production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 140.7 [133.9–145.2] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Mostly favorable weather boosts Brazil’s 25/26 corn production to 140.7 million tons.

First-corn harvesting is underway in the South, with 14.9% completed nationwide and 49% completed in Rio Grade de Sul as of February 14. Despite dry spells in November and early December, first-corn conditions in the South are generally good, especially in Parana where favorable weather increased yields. Although dry weather returned in January, harvest reports showed satisfactory yield results in the South. Additionally, recent rains in the Southeast (e.g., Minas Gerais) and Central-West (e.g., Goiás) have improved crop conditions and yield prospects. Total first-corn production estimate rose by 1.1 million tons due to larger areas and better yields.

Second-corn planting is progressing on schedule, with 32.2% complete nationally and 52.7% complete in Mato Grosso as of February 14. Recent rains in the Central-West have improved soil moisture and aided 2nd crop corn establishment.

Weather forecasts suggest cool to normal temperatures and wetter-than-average conditions in the Southeast and Northeast through early March. Most of Central-West may see near average precipitation, but the South and southern portions of Central-West may have warm and dry conditions. If confirmed, drier conditions in the South and Southwest may stress late grain-fill for first-corn but accelerate maturation and harvest. On the other hand, cool, wet weather elsewhere should benefit first-corn growth in the Southeast and Northeast and second-corn planting in the Central-West.

 

Recent and expected rainfall may ease drought risks for Argentina’s corn production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 55.7 [51.8–60.5] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Despite favorable early-season weather, January drought has led to significant declines in soil moisture, posing a risk to corn production except in La Pampa, where crops remain in good condition. In Buenos Aires, high soil moisture reserves from early season have supported generally healthy corn growth so far, though the January adverse weather limits yield potential. Vegetation density indices (NDVIs) remain at or above last year’s levels. In Cordoba, severe drought has cut yield potential in Marcos Juarez and Rio Cuarto, while other areas are experiencing near-average crop conditions. Early corn in Santa Fe and Entre Rios is concluding with strong yields; however, late-planted corn is facing severe soil moisture deficits, as indicated by suppressed NDVI values.

Over the last two weeks, the Pampas region experienced moderate rainfall between 30 and 60 mm, helping the recovery of corn crops previously affected by drought. Additional rainfall of 70-120 mm may fall in the Pampas regions over the next two weeks, especially in Cordoba, Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires, with relatively cool temperatures, according to the latest EC weather forecasts. If verifies, the anticipated cool and wet weather could largely improve corn conditions in the regions. However, the GFS weather forecasts indicate that little or no rainfall (<10 mm) across the key corn producing regions through early March. The differing weather forecasts from EC and GFS add uncertainty to corn development and require attention.

Furthermore, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that Santa Fe and Entre Rios require ongoing monitoring and control for leafhoppers.

 

IGC Cuts Global Grain Stockpile Est.; Smaller 2026-27 Wheat Crop

Global grain stockpiles in the 2025-26 season are now seen at 631m tons, down from a January estimate of 634m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.

• Wheat stockpile estimate was lowered to 282m tons from 283m tons
• Corn stockpiles forecast was kept the same, at 305m tons
• The outlook for soybeans stockpiles rose to 79m tons from 77m
• Total grains production was trimmed slightly to 2.46b tons
  • “The reduction primarily reflects a revised barley estimate, with minor, near-offsetting changes for other crops”

For 2026-27 season

• The initial global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter, “with expectations for a reduced harvest and further consumption gains”
• Says next season’s corn crop may also dip y/y
• “While barley acreage could be smaller than average amid relatively weak profit margins, the total is seen broadly similar to last season”

 

Brazil sends first sorghum shipment to China in a decade

• Phytosanitary concerns have been resolved
• Brazil also has strong domestic demand for sorghum
• Brazil’s harvest is expected to increase

Brazil exported its first shipment of sorghum to China since 2014 in January, but in a volume small enough to fit inside a single shipping container, according to Brazilian government data seen by Reuters.

The shipment of 25.83 metric tons was Brazil’s first to the Asian country in 12 years, shortly after 10 trading companies were authorized to export the grain to China last November.

According to official records, the last time China bought Brazilian sorghum was in 2014, when its purchases totaled 1,374.5 tons for the year. After that, official records no longer show sales of Brazilian sorghum to China.

CHINA SEEKS TO DIVERSIFY SUPPLIES

Sorghum exporters and farmers expect volumes of shipments to China will rise as the country seeks to diversify supplies of inputs for animal feed production in response to a trade dispute with the United States, traditionally its largest sorghum supplier.

The executive director of the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers, Glauber Silveira, said he expects China to start buying Brazilian sorghum following work that resolved the Asian country’s phytosanitary concerns, which allowed exporters to be approved.

 

Indonesia says get 19% tariff on most goods in US trade deal, may get exemption for palm oil

Most of Indonesia’s exports to the U.S. will have a 19% tariff imposed on them under a reciprocal trade agreement, although there will be no tariffs on chocolate, natural rubber and coffee, the Indonesian government said in a statement on Friday.

The government also said that after the signing of the deal, it might be able to get tariff exemptions on nearly 1,700 commodities, including palm oil.

 

French Wheat Conditions Worsen Amid Floods in Growing Regions

About 88% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of Feb. 16, versus 91% the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: Several French regions, including some that grow wheat, were put on red and amber alert for flooding, according to Meteo France
• Spring barley was 30% planted, steady from the prior week
  • Compares to 21% at this time last year

 

Small US Refiner Voice Opposition to Ethanol Council Proposal

A group of independent and small refineries representing over two million barrels a day of refining capacity wrote a letter to the E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council standing in opposition to the group of lawmaker’s current proposal to change biofuels guidelines.

• Lawmakers have been working with agriculture and oil industry groups, like the American Petroleum Institute, or API, to pass legislation that would allow for year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline and crimp exemptions to blending mandates for the fuel
  • “We are voicing our position through this letter because API who represents large integrated oil companies does not represent our collective voice nor the voice of the refining sector,” the letter read
• Under the current waiver program, each gallon of ethanol or biodiesel mixed into transportation fuels generates credits — so-called renewable identification numbers, or RINs — that oil refiners use to meet their federal blending obligations.
  • The latest proposal would cap waivers for blending biofuels into gasoline at 550 million RINs per year, which is significantly less than what has been exempt in recent years
• Small and independent refineries asked in the letter that the council allow the Environmental Protection Agency to continue to grant exemptions for blending mandates as they do now without a cap on who gets relief
  • They also said they support banning reallocation, in which waivers for exempted refiners are effectively shifted to others who didn’t win relief
  • The group also asked for limits on the annual ethanol mandate to be no higher than the actual consumption of the fuel from the last year

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 6.2% Y/y in January

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.58b pounds in Jan., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 10.6% y/y to 2.12b pounds
• Jan. cattle slaughter totaled 2.38m head, a 12.4% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 25 pounds from last year to 1,464 pounds
• Pork production down 2.1% y/y to 2.45b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 2.8% y/y to 11,150m head
  • Avg live weight was 294 pounds vs 293 pounds a year ago

 

Brazil beef companies could each ship at least 8,000 metric tons annually to China, document shows

• Brazil’s government keen to regulate beef shipments
• Plan is to avoid exporters rushing sales to China
• Brazil’s foreign trade body CAMEX yet to approve the move

Brazil’s government could back a plan that would allow individual beef exporters to each ship at least 8,000 metric tons of products to China per year, according to a legal opinion seen by Reuters.

The South American country’s beef sector was left scrambling after Beijing imposed an extra 55% tariff on beef exports that exceeded quota levels from key suppliers like Brazil.

The measure, which also affects exporters like Australia and the United States, took effect from January 1 and will last for three years.

“There will be… a minimum quota of 8,000 tons per year per company, to make exports viable for smaller meat processing plants,” law firm Barral Parente Pinheiro said in a legal opinion issued on February 5 on behalf of industry group ABIEC, which backs the introduction of individual quotas.

The total Chinese import quota for 2026 for countries covered under its new “safeguard measures” is 2.7 million tons, roughly in line with the record 2.87 million tons it imported overall in 2024.

As per Beijing’s announcement, Brazil’s import quota will be 1.106 million tons in 2026, 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028.

Brazil’s government could also create a technical reserve to accommodate beef exporters that were not eligible to export to China last year but could be this year, the opinion said.

“The technical reserve comprises 3% of 1.1 million tons, equivalent to 33,000 tons, and is intended for new exporters who did not export in 2025 but are authorized to export in 2026,” Barral Parente Pinheiro said in its opinion.

The legal opinion also includes a mechanism to increase the companies’ individual quotas in the event that other exporters are unable to fulfill shipments.

Last week, an Agriculture Ministry official said the government planned to assign export quotas for individual beef exporters to regulate shipments.

The plan, which counts on wide but not unanimous support from the industry, must be approved at Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (CAMEX).

Regulating shipments would avoid Brazilian exporters rushing to sell beef to China, according to a memo signed by Luis Rua, foreign trade secretary at the Agriculture Ministry, which was forwarded to CAMEX on February 6.

Individual company quotas for beef shipments in 2026 should reflect the volumes exported by the individual companies in 2025, the legal opinion added.

“From 2027 onwards, the quota will be calculated based on a two-year moving average of the volumes actually exported, promoting gradual adaptation and long-term stability,” the document said.

ABIEC declined to comment.

 

U.S. Embassy launches campaign against corn borer; seeks to prevent, detect, and report pest

The U.S. Embassy in Mexico launched an educational campaign on Thursday for the prevention, detection, and reporting of the cattle gnat, given the impact it has had on both countries.

In coordination with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Service for Agrifood Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA), the campaign includes “a wide range of multimedia educational materials” in Spanish.

The embassy, headed by Ambassador Ronald Johnson, emphasized that this strategy is aimed at various audiences, such as livestock producers, veterinarians, rural communities, and animal health personnel.

It also includes short and long-form videos, audio messages for radio and digital platforms, and graphic materials for dissemination.

It warned that the screwworm is “a highly destructive pest that poses a serious threat to livestock, rural livelihoods, food security, and agricultural trade.”

“Its reappearance in some regions of Mexico underscores the importance of early detection, prevention, and timely reporting to protect animal health and production systems in both countries,” he said.

The U.S. diplomatic representation indicated that the joint campaign reflects the long-term collaboration between the governments of Mexico and the United States to address shared challenges in agricultural health through coordinated, science-based actions.

The campaign covers how to identify infestations, preventive measures to reduce risks, and the importance of immediately reporting cases to health authorities, as well as the proper treatment of affected animals.

 

US generated fewer renewable blending credits in January, EPA says

The U.S. generated fewer renewable blending credits in January than December, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.22 billion ethanol(D6) blending credits were generated in January, compared with about 1.32 billion in December, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending fell to 438 million in January from 670 million in the prior month, according to the data.

 

US RINS WEEKLY REPORT: All Eyes Turn To RVO Mandate

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

D4, D5, and D6 RIN swap prices enter mid-February consolidating around 148.50, 147.75, and 141.50 cents per gallon mark respectively. The bullish upswing in RINs swap prices reflects policy uncertainty surrounding IRA era mandates as well as fundamental supply and demand factors undergirded by the BOHO spread. This upward price movement commenced in January 2026 and continued into mid-February. Between January 5th and February 17th D4 RINs – the RIN which supplies the “marginal gallon”- increased from 103 cents per gallon to 148.50 cents per gallon. During this period the BOHO spread increased in tandem with RINs prices, a clear illustration that the BOHO and RINs valuation typically move in sync. On February 18th the BOHO settled at 1.9186 dollars per gallon, the highest in several months.

A significant driver of the widening BOHO spread might be the spike in CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. On Wednesday, February 18th Chicago soybean futures rallied following news that China might purchase an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. The most liquid soybean CBOT soybean contract concluded the overnight session up approximately 0.5% settling at around $11.55 per bushel. Moreover, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) published their most recent February report illustrating January US soy crush settling at 221.564 mln bu. This marks a 10.6% increase from the 200.383 million bushels crushed in January 2025. Moreover, as of January 31, soybean oil stocks rose to 1.90 billion pounds – a sizable 15.7% increase from the 1.642 billion pounds held at the end of December. Perhaps even more notable was the 49.1% increase from the 1.274 billion pounds held exactly one year earlier i.e. early 2025.

Nonetheless, the most consequential factor that will affect RINs prices is the news that the U.S. EPA is expected to submit to the Whitehouse a proposed biofuel blending quota for 2026. It should be remembered that the Trump Administration has set up a self-imposed end of March deadline to finalize U.S. biofuel blending mandates – the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO).

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 474k tons in the week ending Feb. 14 from 266k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 121.8% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 54.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $24.90 per short ton, an increase of $0.68 from the previous week

 

 

 

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