Global Ag News For Feb 2.2026

TOP HEADLINES

World 2025-26 Orange Production Seen Rising by 0.9% Y/y: USDA

World fresh orange production seen at 45.9m tons, 0.9% above the previous season’s amount, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report on its website.

• Brazil crop seen 3.8% bigger than last season at 13.5m tons
• Turkey, EU and Mexico crops seen smaller than last season
• Global orange juice ending stocks seen unchanged at 250k tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.45.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.85.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.3% in SRW, up 4.9% in HRW, down 0.1% in HRS; Corn is down 3.2%; Soybeans up 2.6%; Soymeal down 0.2%; Soyoil up 10.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 136; Palm oil down 162; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 88.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 88 ringgit (-2.04%) at 4229.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 30 were: SRW Wheat down 8,280 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,333, Corn down 3,824, Soybeans up 1,392, Soymeal up 1,535, Soyoil up 3,381.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 02 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above‑normal temperatures are expected across the Plains, with wetter conditions in the Northern/Central Plains and the Northwest, and drier weather elsewhere in the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The Pampas will remain cooler and mostly dry, except for the northern corn and soybean belts, while Central Brazil faces heavy rains that may raise concerns.
• EUROPE: Central/Western Europe will see above-normal temperatures over the next 15 days. Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected across Western/Central Europe.
• ASIA: Southeast Asia and India are expected to experience mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed conditions across East Asia. Dry weather will dominate Asia, except for brief wet spells in Southeast Asia and east China.
• AFRICA: Rains may delay cocoa harvesting in southern West Africa, while wet spells continue across the Free State regions in South Africa’s corn belt.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The MJO forecast indicates an inactive Phase 8, which is not expected to support active tropical weather over the next 15 days.

 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL AND THE SOUTHERN PAMPAS FOR MID‑FEBRUARY

• Weather Anomaly Severity: High
• Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens
• Forecast confidence: High through 15 days
• Model Change (from previous update): Flood risks for Central Brazil, drier to the far South.

  

Brazil: Heavy rain fell in central Brazil over the weekend, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning if the rains aren’t consistently heavier over the next two months.

Argentina: A system missed most of the agricultural land over the weekend as dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas later this week and is forecast to largely stall. Systems moving through then could produce some heavier and much-needed rainfall. If the rain fails, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

Northern Plains: Some light snow and mix moved through the region over the weekend, but also ushered in some warmer air that should stick around all week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air over the weekend was pushed out of the region. Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow. Soil moisture maps are not particularly wet though, and many dry and droughty spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

Midwest: Another round of cold air moved through this weekend while a clipper moved through with some snow. Some areas of snow may last for Monday and Tuesday as well. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer.

Delta: It was dry over the weekend, but very cold. Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. A system will move through on Tuesday with scattered showers, but precipitation appears to be lighter until at least next week. Water levels should drop again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to issues of their own.

 

The player sheet for 1/30 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Sunday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Tuesday, February 3, with offers having to remain valid until Wednesday, February 4. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 3.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Dec. Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of five analysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 230.5m bu in Dec., a 5.9% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of December seen at 2.275b lbs, up from 1.687b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen down 0.8% y/y to 475.4m bu

 

LIVESTOCK: US Cattle Herd Falls to 86.16 Million Head

The US Jan. 1 herd fell 0.4% from the same time a year ago, according to the USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report.

• Number of cows and heifers that have calved fell by 0.3% y/y
• Beef cows down 1% y/y and milk cows rose by 2% y/y
• Heifers 500+ pounds fell by 0.6% y/y
• Last year’s calf crop fell by 1.6% y/y

 

US cattle herd dwindles to 75-year low, USDA says

The U.S. cattle herd dwindled to its smallest size since 1951, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday, signaling that beef prices will stay high for consumers after setting records last year.

The nation had 86.2 million cattle and calves as of January 1, the USDA said in a biannual report, after a persistent drought drove ranchers to slash their herds. That was down 0.4% from a year earlier, when the herd also hit its lowest level since 1951.

Beef prices will likely stay elevated for another two years because that is how long it would take to raise cattle that are ready to be slaughtered, if ranchers start to rebuild their herds, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale.

“There is no sign of serious rebuilding,” he said.

High food prices contributed to knocking U.S. consumer confidence in January to the lowest level in more than 11-1/2 years, pressuring Republican President Donald Trump to address the issue of affordability which helped propel Democratic candidates to several electoral victories in 2025.

In October, Trump pledged to make beef more affordable. Yet prices have kept rising for hamburger meat and steaks. Retail prices for ground beef reached a record $6.69 per pound in December, up more than 2% from a month earlier and 19% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The herd of cows raised for beef has declined continuously since 2019 as the drought in the western states burned pastureland and raised feeding costs, forcing ranchers to send more animals to slaughter.

High cattle prices have also encouraged ranchers to sell animals to be slaughtered, rather than keeping them for breeding.

The number of beef cows dropped 1% from a year ago to 27.6 million head as of January 1, the lowest since 1961, according to USDA data. The total herd also includes cows raised for milk, which often are eventually slaughtered for ground beef.

Tyson Foods, one of four large beef processors, is permanently closing a plant in Nebraska that employed about 3,200 workers and reducing operations at a Texas plant. The company is set to report quarterly earnings on Monday.

 

Malaysia Jan. Palm Oil Exports +17.93% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Jan. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Jan. 2026: 1.463m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 427,170 tons, 29.2% of total

 

Indonesia’s 2025 palm oil exports reach 23.61 million metric tons

Indonesia exported 23.61 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, up 9.09% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said on Monday.

The shipments were worth $24.42 billion last year.

For December alone, the world’s top palm oil exporter, recorded 2.75 million tons of palm oil exports, valued at $2.79 billion, the bureau added.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own figures at a later date, covering more products, and thus has different export figures.

 

Argentina awaits crucial rains to protect grain yields, despite recent rainfall boost

Recent rains across key agricultural regions in western Argentina improved soil moisture conditions, yet corn and soy crops will still need more rainfall in coming weeks to avoid yield losses, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

KEY CONTEXT

• The Exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean harvest area at 17.6 million hectares for the 2025/26 season, down from 18.4 million dedicated to the crop the previous season.
• The harvest area for corn is estimated at 7.8 million hectares versus the 7.1 million, compared with the previous season.
• In its weekly crop report, the Exchange said the recent rains had “a more significant impact on late plantings.”
• More widespread rains are still needed in the center and south of the country during critical development stages, the Exchange added.
• Farmers have planted 99.5% of soy and 97.2% of corn so far.
• The Rosario Grains Exchange separately estimated Argentina’s corn harvest area for the 2025/26 season at 62 million tonnes and soy at 47 million tonnes.
• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soy meal and soy oil, and is world’s third-largest for corn.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices move down; Index is back to BRL 65 per bag

Cepea, 30 – Liquidity continues low in the domestic corn market. Purchasers are prioritizing the use of inventories and close only a few deals when they need to replenish stocks and/or face low prices.

As for the supply, some producers, fearing new price drops and having to open room in warehouses, are more flexible about quotations. However, part of sellers expect that, with the soy harvesting, logistical issues may limit price decreases. Therefore, they have already started to reduce supply.

Soy harvesting and high demand for freight for soybean typically sustain corn prices at the beginning of the year. However, in 2026, one aspect that has been preventing price increases is the fact that corn inventories are high. They are estimated at 12 million tons in this beginning of the season, against 1.8 million tons in 2025.

The average of the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices in January/26 is 2% below that in December/25 and 7% smaller compared to that in January/25, in real terms (IGP-DI December/25).

From January 22-29, the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices dropped 1.1%, to close at BRL 65.96 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 29. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values moved down 1.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 2.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: High demand boosts soybean meal prices

Cepea, 30 – In spite of the progress of the soybean harvesting in major producing areas in Brazil, part of the crushing industry interrupts activities for maintenance, scenario that has been reducing the supply of soy byproducts in the spot market in Brazil.

As for soybean meal, the demand is high, boosting trading prices and, consequently, the financial returns of the industry relative to soybean costs. Although consumers had operated with high volumes of soy meal in previous weeks, many of them needed to replenish inventories over the last days. As the supply is limited, the competition between purchasers has increased, boosting export premiums.

 

 India faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

India will be warmer and drier this month after an unusually warm January, the weather office said, raising risks for key winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas.

The country’s northwestern wheat-growing region is likely to receive less than 78% of its long-term average rainfall, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, said on Saturday.

Maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country will be above average in February, he said.

Crops such as wheat and barley could suffer yield losses, as higher-than-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten the growing period, he said.

“Below-normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India,” he said.

India’s Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country’s top wheat-growing regions.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

In January, minimum and maximum temperatures were above average as the country received 31.5% lower-than-average rainfall, Mohapatra said.

Indian farmers had planted wheat and rapeseed on a record 33.42 million hectares and 8.94 million hectares, respectively, by January 23, farm ministry data showed.

“February is a crucial month for grain development. A sharp rise in temperatures during this period would lead to lower yields and could wipe out the gains from higher planting,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world’s biggest vegetable-oil importer, to step up its cooking-oil imports, dealers said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

Indonesia sets February crude palm oil reference price at $918.47 per ton

Indonesia has set its crude palm oil reference price at $918.47 per metric ton for February, slightly up from January’s $915.64 per ton, Trade Ministry regulation showed on Friday.

The new reference price means the export tax for crude palm oil in February will remain at $74 per ton.

Indonesia also imposes a separate 10% export levy on crude palm oil.

 

US Nov beef, pork and broiler trade data

Reuters News

30 Jan 2026 10:55:30 AM

Jan 30 (Reuters) – The following are selected highlights from the U.S. Agriculture Department’s monthly Livestock and Meat International Trade Data. The data is based on information obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

For beef, mutton and pork, USDA converts the quantity data from a product-weight basis to a carcass-weight-equivalent basis. The following are totals, and include data from other countries not listed.

 

 

 

 

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