Global Ag News For Feb 12.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Congressional Ethanol Group Sets Proposal to End Impasse on E15

A newly formed council of lawmakers is set to propose rules in an effort to break an impasse over the sale of higher-ethanol gasoline.

The congressional council’s proposal would allow year-round nationwide sales of higher-ethanol gasoline, limit exemptions for small refineries on blending mandates and prevent other companies from having to bear the cost of exemptions through reallocation, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg.

Representatives for Stephanie Bice and Randy Feenstra, House Republicans who are co-chairs of the council, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The proposal comes as the agriculture and oil industries have clashed over biofuel policies, with both groups anxiously awaiting the Trump administration’s finalization of blending quotas. That has been delayed, leaving uncertainty over how companies will be impacted.

The rules may still face opposition, particularly from larger refineries who want a tighter definition on what qualifies as a small refinery. It’s also subject to possible changes before it is likely added to must-pass legislation such as the Farm Bill.

Lawmakers had been working to pass a measure allowing year-round sales of ethanol-blended E15 gasoline as part of the latest government funding package. Pollution limits have long curbed summertime sales of the fuel. They reached a deal last month that would have packaged E15 sales with slashing exemptions for smaller refineries, but it was killed at the last minute as mid-sized refineries complained that it wouldn’t allow them to get the exemptions they’ve come to rely on.

House Republican leaders then struck an agreement with Midwestern GOP lawmakers to form the E-15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, with the goal of reaching a compromise between the agriculture industry and small, medium and large refineries.

In addition to allowing year-round sales of E15, the council’s proposal would ban reallocating biofuel-blending quotas, in which waivers for exempted refiners are effectively shifted to others who didn’t win relief. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed last year to allow reallocation.

Under the current waiver program, each gallon of ethanol or biodiesel mixed into transportation fuels generates credits — so-called renewable identification numbers, or RINs — that oil refiners use to meet their federal blending obligations. The proposal would limit the number of RIN obligations eligible to be exempted to 450 million per year, significantly smaller than in recent years, meaning refineries would be competing for a smaller amount of available exemptions.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 13 1/4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 9 1/2 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans up 22 1/2; Soymeal up $4.00; Soyoil up 1.99.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 75 3/4; Soymeal up $14.90; Soyoil up 3.79.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.4% in SRW, up 5.1% in HRW, down 0.4% in HRS; Corn is down 2.8%; Soybeans up 10.2%; Soymeal up 4.4%; Soyoil up 19.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 75 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil up 6; Palm oil down 62; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is down 24.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.59%) at 4037.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 11 were: SRW Wheat down 24,052 contracts, HRW Wheat up 47, Corn up 23,996, Soybeans up 1,840, Soymeal down 2,093, Soyoil down 1,765.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Despite recent snowstorms, soil moisture remains low in the U.S. southern winter wheat areas
• SOUTH AMERICA: The latest EC monthly forecasts indicates developing dryness in March, which should allow for a smooth transition from the first crop harvest to the second crop planting
• EUROPE: Flood alerts are widespread across France and Spain after recent storms, while more rainfall is expected in the coming days – up to 80-100 mm over the next five days
• AFRICA: Balanced rainfall pattern and moderate temperatures will support the cocoa mid-crop growth and the main crop harvest in mid-February
• TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Gezani has weakened after leaving Madagascar but will regain Category 2 strength over the Mozambique Channel and affect shipping routes

 

FLOODING THREAT LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST BRAZIL, WHILE CENTRAL BRAZIL SEES ONGOING HEAVY RAINS

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day  timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 1-10-days; Low in 11-15-days

Model Change (from previous update):  Wetter for Southeast Brazil

 

Brazil: Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues through the end of this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

Argentina: Several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country into the upcoming weekend. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

Northern Plains: Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the rest of this week. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

Central/Southern Plains: Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

Midwest: The threat for arctic cold has ended for a while as temperatures trend warmer throughout the region, but snow pack in the east could keep temperatures a bit closer to average. However, the weather pattern will become more active and the chance for bigger storms is elevated as well. Southern areas are favored by a system this weekend while northern areas could see multiple rounds of precipitation next week.

Delta: Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

 

The player sheet for 2/11 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private export sales of 230,560 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is February 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 17.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for price offers is February 18. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 50,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 5.

• Corn est. range 900k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 1,200k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 683k

 

US CROP EXPORTS: 230,560 Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announces export sales activity on its website:

• The sale is for the 2025-26 marketing year

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.4% to 25.247M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.485 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.11m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.079m

 

Argentina Soybeans Face Crucial Two Weeks Amid Dryness: Rosario

“What happens with rainfall over the next 10 to 15 days will be crucial in setting a floor for the harvest and preventing deeper losses in the areas hardest hit by the lack of water,” the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly crop estimates report.

• “The forecast is encouraging. In the near term, February’s pattern of scattered but frequent rains should persist — adding millimeters that can, little by little, meet the crop’s water needs”
• Areas on the key “zona nucleo” belt including southern Cordoba and southern Santa Fe need 40mm (1.6 inches) a week for the next two weeks
• Soybean production estimate is 48m metric tons vs. 47m last month
• Corn production estimate unchanged at 62m tons

 

Trump, Xi Expected to Extend Trade Truce in April Summit: SCMP

The US and China are expected to extend the trade truce negotiated in South Korea by up to a year when President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in a yet-to-be-finalized meeting in April, South China Morning Post reports, citing several unidentified people familiar with the discussions.

Summit would be anchored around short-term economic wins, including fresh Chinese purchase commitments, the sources say

 

Indian corn, soybean prices fall as door opened to US imports

Indian corn and soybean prices fell on Wednesday after New Delhi agreed to duty-free imports of U.S. soyoil and a protein-rich animal feed under a new trade deal with Washington, stoking fears of cheaper supplies among farmers.

Farm unions and opposition parties, concerned about cheap U.S. supplies, have called nationwide protests for Thursday.

A joint statement from India and the U.S. last week said New Delhi had agreed to allow duty-free imports of soyoil and distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), a corn-based ethanol byproduct used as cattle feed.

Soybean and corn prices have fallen by 10% and 4% respectively since the interim framework was announced last week, rekindling anger among millions of small Indian farmers, whose 2020-21 protests forced New Delhi to repeal laws aimed at deregulating markets.

Although allowing U.S. DDGS imports is weighing on prices, the short-term impact is likely to be limited, said Harish Galipelli, director of ILA Commodities Pvt Ltd, a Hyderabad-based trade house.

Corn prices are trading around 1,820 rupees ($20.06) per 100 kg, well below the government-set support or guaranteed price of 2,400 rupees, as output hits a record high and demand slumps from ethanol producers.

Similarly, demand from domestic feed manufacturers remains weak, with the market worried that cheaper imports of DDGS could worsen the current supply glut, traders said.

India’s summer-sown corn production rose 14% to a record 28.3 million metric tons, according to farm ministry estimates.

Rakesh Tikait, a prominent farm leader, said the government held no discussions with farmers before agreeing to the deal.

“We were kept in the dark, and the trade deal is a body blow to the farm sector, which is India’s mainstay,” he said.

Warning the government against proceeding with the deal, Tikait said: “There will be a nationwide protest on February 12, and after that we will intensify our agitation.”

 

China will make fair ruling on Canadian canola, says commerce ministry

China will make a fair and final ruling on Canadian Canola, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, adding that its anti-dumping probe into the oilseed has been extended to March 9.

The extension is due to the “complexity” of the case, He Yadong, a ministry spokesperson, told a regular news conference.

During Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last month, China and Canada reached an initial deal that would cut tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for lower levies on Canadian canola. China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola last year.

 

CME to Launch Four South Asia Edible Oil Futures Contracts

CME to launch the contracts on March 2, pending regulatory review, the company says in a release.

• New products are cash-settled and include two outright contracts and two spread contracts that will be based on the Fastmarkets Soyoil CFR India and Crude Palm Oil CFR West Coast India assessments
  • South Asia Soybean Oil (Fastmarkets) Futures
  • South Asia Crude Palm Oil (Fastmarket) Futures
  • South Asia Soybean Oil (Fastmarkets) vs. CBOT Soybean Oil Futures
  • South Asia Crude Palm Oil (Fastmarkets) vs. USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures
• New contracts will be listed and subject to the rules of CBOT

 

French Wheat Sales Outside EU More Than Double From Last Season

French soft-wheat exports to non-EU countries were 4m tons from the start of the 2025-26 season that began in July through the end of December, FranceAgriMer said in a report.

• Shipments more than doubled — they compared with 1.53m tons in the same period a year earlier
• Total July-December soft-wheat sales were 7.7m tons, up from 4.4m tons in the same period last season
  • Top buyers were Morocco with 2.1m tons; Egypt with 529,169 tons; Ivory Coast with 386,743 tons; Thailand with 201,134 tons, and Tunisia with 182,473 tons

BARLEY

• France’s total barley sales in the July-December period were 3.36m tons, up from 2.2m tons in same period last season
  • Shipments to non-EU countries were 2.17m tons, up from 949,233 tons
    • Top buyers for the period were China with 876,694 tons; Saudi Arabia with 822,664 tons; Morocco with 237,531 tons; Libya with 153,231 tons, and Jordan with 125,999 tons

CORN

• France’s total corn sales in the July-December period were 2.58m tons, up from 1.75m tons in same period last season
  • Shipments to EU countries rose to 2.34m tons from 1.54m tons
    • Main buyers for the period: The Netherlands with 768,165 tons, Spain with 666,399 tons, Belgium with 439,702 tons, Italy with 210,196 tons and Germany with 159,678 tons
• Shipments to non-EU countries rose to 241,038 tons from 204,515 tons
  • Main buyers for the period: UK with 191,941 tons; Switzerland with 64,506 tons

 

Indonesia biodiesel pause, rising output seen limiting palm oil gains

• Higher palm oil for exports as Indonesia caps biodiesel plans
• Strong Indian buying likely to draw down swollen inventories
• China demand weakening as cheaper oils replace palm oil
• Medium-to long-term fundamentals seen supportive, analysts say

Indonesia’s move to pause biodiesel expansion and expectations of higher production in the coming months are likely to pressure palm oil prices, although strong demand and slowing growth in overall output could limit the downside, analysts said.

Palm oil output from Southeast Asia, which supplies nearly 90% of the global market, is expected to rise marginally in 2026 on improved weather in top grower Indonesia, even as production in second-largest grower Malaysia is expected to decline, analysts told an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur this week.

More palm oil supply is likely to flood the global market as Indonesia has shelved plans to mandate 50% biodiesel blending.

Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to trade range-bound between 3,800 and 4,300 ringgit ($968-$1,096) per metric ton from now until July 2026, barring any new weather-related factors, said analyst Dorab Mistry.

“We are today in the leanest period for palm production, and yet, in my opinion, the stock drawdown is not significant,” Mistry said.

The benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures fell 35 ringgit, or 0.85%, to 4,060 ringgit a metric ton at close on Wednesday.

“There may be some downward potential in palm oil prices in the short term, in the next one or two months,” said Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World.

“But medium term to longer term, the slowing down of growth, the prospective decline in palm oil stocks, insufficient growth in Indonesian production… should be supportive,” Mielke added.

Global edible oil consumption in the 2025/2026 season is expected to grow by 7.1 million tons, with production seen expanding 5.3 million tons, Mielke said.

Palm oil production in Indonesia is estimated at 48.8 million tons in 2026, while output in Malaysia is seen at 19.7 million tons, he added.

 

Brazil to rebuild ethanol stocks in new harvest after 21% drop in 2025-2026

Brazil’s sugar and ethanol mills should see strong incentives to rebuild ethanol inventories in the 2026-2027 harvest as prices for the biofuels hit multi-year highs and sugar futures hover at five‑year lows, according to analysts and industry data.

Ethanol stocks in Brazil’s center-south, the country’s economic powerhouse, totaled 5.81 billion liters as of Jan. 15, down 20.7% from 7.33 billion liters a year earlier, according to the data from the agriculture ministry.

The shortfall has pushed average prices for hydrous and anhydrous ethanol at mills in Sao Paulo state to their highest level in almost three years.

International sugar prices SBc1 hit a five‑year low on Wednesday, pressured by a global surplus.

“Ethanol prices are running 30% to 40% higher than sugar, which justifies a higher ethanol allocation in 2026/27, when stocks could be replenished over the course of the year,” Safras & Mercado analyst Mauricio Muruci said in an interview.

Safras & Mercado forecasts that mills will direct 53% of sugarcane to ethanol in the 2026-2027 season, which starts in April, reversing trends seen during the 2025-2026 season.

“Stocks are low because ethanol production was minimal in 2025/26. Pump prices were competitive with gasoline the whole time, with restricted supply and firm demand,” said Julio Maria Borges, a partner at consultancy JOB Economia.

Borges described stocks as “very low,” but said supply should recover in the new crop, which would put downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, corn ethanol, which is produced year‑round and does not depend on the cane harvest, continues to gain market share and is expected to hit another record in 2026-2027.

“With a very tight market, low stocks and corn ethanol responsible for a large share of national production, demand for corn‑based ethanol has increased to maintain supply,” said Guilherme Nolasco, CEO of the National Corn Ethanol Union (Unem).

Ethanol from corn and other grains will rise to 12 billion liters in the new season, Nolasco said.

 

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 9% for March

The gazetted price for crude palm oil was set at 3,896.09 ringgit a ton, which incurs an export tax of 9%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• That’s steady with the tax rate for February
• NOTE: The country’s export-duty structure starts at 3%, when FOB prices for CPO are in a range of 2,250-2,400 ringgit/ton, to a maximum rate of 10%, which occurs when prices are above 4,050 ringgit/ton

 

Brazil mulls assigning beef export quotas for exporters dealing with China, official says

The Brazilian government may assign individual export quotas for domestic beef companies selling products to China, Luis Rua, trade secretary at Brazil’s ministry of agriculture, said in an interview on Wednesday.

The measure is an attempt “to organize the industry” after the announcement of “safeguard measures” by China aimed at curbing imports and protecting its local industry, Rua said.

“It’s an ongoing discussion,” the official said by telephone. “We’re talking with the private sector to find alternatives to avoid an uncontrolled race,” he said in relation to exporters potentially “rushing” to send beef to China, which could, for example, lower prices.

The plan to assign individual company quotas may be discussed as early as Thursday at a meeting of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (CAMEX), Rua said.

China imposed an added 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels from key suppliers including Brazil, Australia and the U.S.

The measure took effect on January 1 for three years, with the total quota set to increase annually.

The total Chinese import quota for 2026 for countries covered under its new “safeguard measures” is 2.7 million metric tons, roughly in line with the record 2.87 million tons it imported overall in 2024.

China is Brazil’s main trade partner overall.

Last year, Brazil exported 1.648 million metric tons of fresh beef to the Asian nation, an all-time record.

As per Beijing’s announcement, Brazil’s import quota will be 1.106 million tons in 2026, 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028.

Rua said it remains unclear whether volumes in transit right before Beijing’s announcement — estimated by the industry at around 250,000 tons –, according to the official, would be factored in 2026’s quota for Brazil.

 

 

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