Global Ag News For Feb 11.2026

TOP HEADLINES

USDA’s reputation suffers after massive revisions in US corn acres

• USDA launches review after unprecedented acreage estimate increases
• Staffing cuts hindered data processing, former official says
• Farmers’ reluctance to participate in surveys complicates estimates

CHICAGO, Feb 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture, long the world’s gold standard for crop estimates, faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and a sharp upward revision in how many acres of corn were harvested.

Farmers, traders and food manufacturers everywhere closely follow monthly USDA reports on production, supplies and demand so they can anticipate prices and inventories.

Thousands of employees left USDA last year as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to shrink the federal government, and experts worry the shrinking staff hobbled the agency’s ability to produce accurate and timely data.

USDA’s final estimates in January for how many corn acres farmers planted and harvested in 2025 represented unprecedented increases from initial estimates in June. Already-low grain prices sank more than 5%, at a time when growers were struggling to make money.

USDA data last month “appeared to reflect an agency in disarray,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for consultancy StoneX, citing changes to acres and other estimates.

The revisions prompted USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which releases acreage estimates, to launch an internal review, said Lance Honig, a top NASS official.

At the Farm Service Agency, another USDA branch, staffing reductions hampered employees from processing data on plantings last summer and feeding it to the statistics service, said Spiro Stefanou, a former acting USDA deputy undersecretary who resigned last fall. This delayed the statistics service from receiving a complete picture of acreage, he said.

“NASS had less information to go on,” Stefanou said. “That was going to make their estimates less reliable.”

Last summer, Trump fired a top Labor Department official following a weak scorecard of the U.S. job market, stoking concerns about the quality of federal government data.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil down 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 1.72.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 55 1/4; Soymeal up $8.20; Soyoil up 3.52.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4.8% in SRW, up 3.6% in HRW, down 0.8% in HRS; Corn is down 2.7%; Soybeans up 8.7%; Soymeal up 2.3%; Soyoil up 18.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 42 yuan; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil down 52; Corn up 21 — Malaysian Palm is down 34.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 34 ringgit (-0.83%) at 4061.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 9 were: SRW Wheat down 5,866 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,119, Corn up 5,170, Soybeans up 5,376, Soymeal down 7,029, Soyoil down 4,852.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: The recent EC monthly forecast suggests that there should be no cold risks across the U.S. until early March
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rain and flood warnings will persist in northern Argentinian Pampas through mid-February
• AUSTRALIA: Heavy rainfall with totals between 90-150mm/5days in Queensland will raise flood alerts but will also benefit sugarcane growth
• SOUTH ASIA: Seasonally dry weather expected in the wheat areas of India through the next 10 days
• TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Gezani made landfall in Madagascar as a Category 3 system and will linger over the Mozambique Channel affecting shipping routes until late week

 

Brazil: Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

Argentina: Though it was quiet over the past weekend, several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country this week. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

Northern Plains: Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation this week, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

Central/Southern Plains: Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

Midwest: A clipper brought a burst of arctic cold to eastern areas over the weekend while it was warmer in the west. The warmer air will spread east this week and the threat for arctic cold has ended for a while. However, the weather pattern will become more active and a few systems this week could produce scattered showers. The chance for bigger storms is elevated as well, and the southern end of the region may be favored by a system this weekend.

Delta: Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

 

The player sheet for 2/10 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 120,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The US Department of Agriculture purchased $11 million of hard red winter wheat under the Food for Progress program, the agency said in a Tuesday statement. The purchase from CHS Inc. came at a price of $255.18 per metric ton with shipment out of Houston. The agency sought the wheat for shipment to Nigeria

 PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is February 11.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 6 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.079m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.485m bbl vs 25.136m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil Soy, Corn Production Before Conab’s Report

Brazil 2025-26 soybean production seen 3.4m metric tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous estimate in January, according to the average in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 175.5m tons to 184m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 1.3m tons higher at 140.1m tons
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Feb. 12 at 9am local time.

 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Output to Grow 2%-3% This Year: Gapki

Indonesia’s crude palm oil output is set to rise 2%-3% this year, slowing from annual growth of 8% in 2025, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.

• CPO output was at 51.98m tons in 2025, M. Fadhil Hasan, head of foreign affairs at the group known as Gapki, said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• Aging plantations added sizeable immature trees causing yields to decline, he said
• Total palm oil production including crude palm kernel oil in 2025 was at 56.91m tons
• Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 8.7% to 32.12m tons in 2025
• Domestic consumption of palm oil rose 3.8% in 2025 to 24.76m tons due to the B40 biodiesel mandate
• Palm oil prices to remain high this year but lower than 2025
  • 1H 2026 CPO price range seen at 4,100-4,400 ringgit/ton driven by seasonally low harvest or delayed yields and inventory adjustment after end of 2025
  • 2H price range to widen to 4,000-4,300 ringgit/ton driven by seasonally higher yield and competition from soybean oil and sunflower oil, as well as potential policy ambuguity and slower biodiesel uptake toward year-end
• Indonesia’s internal land and policy issues such as changes to plantation control could further influence output dynamics in 2026, he said

 

Global Palm Oil Output Set to Decline in 2026, Mielke Says

Palm oil output is set to decline globally this year, including in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia, according to Thomas Mielke, executive director of ISTA Mielke Gmb.

• Global palm oil output seen dropping to 84.5m tons in 2026, vs 85.24m tons a year ago
  • A production deficit is shaping up for palm and soy oils in 2026 and 2027; it could be a rough time for consumers, Mielke said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur
• Malaysia’s 2026 palm production to drop to 19.87m tons, from 20.28m tons a year ago
• Indonesia’s 2026 palm output to fall to 48.80m tons, from 49.60m tons in 2025
  • In Indonesia, investments and fertilizer applications are being reduced, which will have an impact on future yields and production, as well as reduce exports in 2026
  • “This will affect palm oil production, we just don’t know how much. We have to live with this uncertainty,” Mielke said
• Palm oil exports will drop further in 2026, while higher shipments of soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils will make up that loss
• Weather issues could alter price outlook; El Nino may develop and strengthen, creating drier conditions and stress for palm oil
• Insufficient palm oil supplies are raising global dependence on soybeans, sunseed and rapeseed
  • Soybean supplies will remain ample in 2025-26 and stockpiles will rise further, pressuring prices
• Global production of sunflower seed in 2025-26 will only be up by 1m tons or 1% from previous season
  • Drought caused losses of 5-6m tons sunflower seeds this summer in Black Sea region
• World consumption of all oils and fats in 2025-26 seen up 7.1m tons vs production growth of 5.3m tons
  • Palm will probably only be able to satisfy 15%-20% growth in world consumption of oils and fats in next 5-10 years, vs avg 32% in 2021-2025 and 43% in 2011-2020
• Bullish momentum in veg oil prices has somewhat been curbed by depressed prices of crude oil and gas oil, which has widened spreads of palm and soy oils to gas oil
• Malaysia RBD palm olein seen at $1,000-$1,200 per ton to June; $1,100-$1,350 per ton July-Dec.

 

Palm Oil to Strengthen in 2H on Softer Output Growth: Glenauk

Palm oil prices are expected to climb to 4,500 ringgit per ton in the second half of this year, after likely trading in a 4,000-4,300 ringgit range in 1H, according to consulting firm Glenauk Economics.

• Production growth may slow in 2026, and stockpiles may decline gradually, Julian McGill, an agricultural economist who is also managing director at Glenauk, said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• Glenauk’s rainfall index implies that Malaysian production growth in 2Q 2026 will be flat
  • This is a repeat of a pattern last seen in 2018, when output slowed in the first half after a strong recovery in 2017
  • Weather has been extreme since the start of this year, with incidents of drought and floods at the same time
  • Malaysia’s palm oil output is seen easing to 19.7m tons in 2026, after hitting a record in 2025
  • NOTE: Benchmark palm oil futures traded at around 4,064 ringgit per ton in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• In Indonesia, baseline weather conditions are better, with very few droughts
  • Production may drop in 1Q before recovering in 2Q
  • NOTE: Indonesia is the world’s largest grower of oil palm, while Malaysia is No. 2
• Seed sales in Indonesia of about 160m in 2025 suggest that a sizable 800k hectares of oil palm area was either planted or replanted
  • This reduces the mature area in 2026, but increases future growth
  • Smallholders replanting rates will remain low
• Indonesia’s move to seize some plantations has encouraged over-harvesting of fresh fruit bunches, which will increase output. However, lower fertilizer use and poor upkeep will start to be felt by 2H of this year
  • As of end-2025, just below 800k ha of planted area have been seized, while 300k ha are still under verification
  • The final figure of seized planted area after the second phase seen at 1.2m ha
  • Indonesia’s total output is likely to rise by 0.6m tons, helped by good weather
• Production in both Thailand and Colombia is expected to increase in 2026, pushing more volumes of crude palm oil to the export market
  • This will compete with Malaysia’s export share, and depress the country’s shipments in 2Q
  • Palm oil use in the EU has shrunk to such an extent that imports of used cooking oil by the bloc may soon exceed those of palm oil

 

China’s Canola Crush May Rise to 4M Tons in 2026: Cargill

China’s canola crush is expected to rise to 3.4 million tons in 2026, with potential to reach 4 million tons, according to Cargill Investments (China) Ltd.

• Soybean crush may see small drop this year as supplies of other protein will be higher than 2025, Ryan Chen, China Import & Export Business Director at Cargill Investments, said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• China’s demand for soy oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sunflower oil expected to increase 1% y/y in 2026
• Palm olein imports may rise to 3m tons in 2026 from 2.7m tons in 2025
• Total Chinese demand for palm products was at 7.2m tons; with palm olein imports at 2.7m tons
• Consumption of shortening oil, used in food service sectors as supplementary supply, climbed 21% y/y in 2025 due to its favorable price spread to palm olein. This demand is expected to climb another 8% y/y in 2026
• Hydrogenated palm oil, used in industrial food and non-food sectors, saw a 50% y/y growth in demand in 2025; may grow by 5%-6% this year
• Imports of palm fatty acids seen growing to 420k tons this year, after surging 335% y/y in 2025, to fill the gaps in palm acid oil and palm oil mill effluent
• Total Chinese export volume of bioenergy feedstock seen rising 5.2% y/y to 4.9m tons in 2026, driven by hydrotrated vegoils and sustainable aviation fuel
• China’s soy oil exports jumped 340% y/y in 2025 to 560k tons, with India and South Korea as major destinations; 2026 exports to slump to 260k tons due to competition from new supplies of South American soy oil

 

Palm Growers May See Production Issues in Late 2026, Mistry Says

The world’s two biggest palm growers may face production issues in the second half of 2026, as Indonesia widens a crackdown on its resources sector and yields decline, according to veteran analyst Dorab Mistry.

• Indonesia’s land seizures can raise problems with palm yields and production in 2H
• Malaysian palm production will be lower y/y, particularly in 2H, but stockpiles are high
• Benchmark palm oil futures are likely to trade between 3,800 ringgit and 4,300 ringgit a ton through July, Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd., said in remarks prepared for an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday; the forecast is barring any new weather-related factors such as drought
• The outlook for 2026 is “flat to weaker” until some new bullish factor emerges; biggest price drivers now are the US biodiesel policy and palm oil production
• Total Indian edible oil imports are seen rising to 17.1m tons in 2025-26, vs 16.35m tons a year earlier; palm imports are expected to rise to 9.1m tons; soy oil imports are seen rising to 5.4m tons, sunflower oil purchases are seen falling to 2.5m tons
  • Palm and soy oils will “fight it out” in India, according to Mistry
• China will continue to export soy oil to India for the next several months; its consumption of vegetable oils unlikely to be strong in 2026
• US soy oil supplies will be tight and prices will be high, as allocations are diverted to produce biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and some exports to India
• Sunflower seed crops in 2025-26 in Black Sea and Argentina may not be as big as initially expected
• Coconut oil production is recovering somewhat, Rotterdam prices seen remaining around $1,800-$2,000/ton

 

Palm oil output growth to slow in 2026 as Malaysia production falls, analyst says

Palm oil output is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2026, with production rising by 600,000 tons in Indonesia and falling to 19.7 million tons in Malaysia, Julian McGill, managing director of advisory firm Glenauk Economics, said on Wednesday.

Plantation seizures in Indonesia have encouraged the over-harvesting of fresh fruit bunches, resulting in increasing output, McGill told an industry conference. However, in the second half of this year, the impact of the seizures will start to be felt.

Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to trade between 4,000 ringgit and 4,300 ringgit ($1,019-$1,095) per metric ton in the first half of this year and will strengthen to around 4,500 ringgit per ton in the second half, he said.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 11.71 Million Tons In February – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 11.71 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 11.42 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.93 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.63 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 953,217 TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 793,364 TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Ukraine will complete 2025 corn harvest in March, says deputy minister

Ukraine intends to complete the 2025 corn harvest in March, but expects a decline in quality, deputy economy minister Taras Vysotskiy was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Farmers began harvesting last year’s corn crop with a significant delay due to unfavourable weather conditions, and about 7% of the sown area remains unharvested, Vysotskiy told Censor.net internet newspaper.

“This is not an unprecedented situation for Ukraine, as this practice has already been seen in previous years,” Vysotskiy said.

“However, there is no reason to say that the entire remaining volume will be lost. We are talking about a possible decrease in quality, not an automatic loss of harvest.”

Vysotskiy confirmed the ministry’s forecast that the 2025 corn harvest will amount to about 30 million metric tons.

Analyst APK-Inform said on Sunday that it estimates last year’s corn harvest at 31.35 million tons, but the consultancy lowered its corn export forecast by 2 million tons to 23.5 million tons due to logistical problems.

 

Ukraine wheat exports remain low in the face of logistics strife, union says

Wheat exports from Ukraine remain at an extremely low level so far in February, with only 27,000 metric tons leaving the country out of 700,000 tons contracted for the month, farmers union UAC said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter.

“Not everything is OK with logistics. Ports cannot operate at full capacity due to blackouts and wheat is competing with corn, which is loaded first,” UAC said in a weekly report.

Russia has increased strikes on Ukrainian seaports and energy infrastructure, causing blackouts across entire regions and significant restrictions on energy supplies to ports and railways.

The UAC said that logistical problems mean Ukraine will be unable to export all of the contracted wheat exports.

In January, 536,000 tons of the contracted 620,000 tons were exported. In December, 586,000 tons of 1 million tons contracted left the country.

The APK-Inform agriculture consultancy made a downward revision to its 2025/26 Ukrainian wheat exports forecast on Sunday to 14.5 million tons from the previous estimate of 16.7 million tons.

The consultancy also increased the 2025/26 ending grain stocks outlook to 11.5 million tons from the 6.8 million tons expected a month earlier, adding that the volume could include 4 million tons of wheat and 4.3 million tons of corn.

 

US Says Trade Deal With India to Include Concessions on Pulses

India has agreed to phase out duties on a range of agricultural products including ‘certain pulses’ and ‘additional’ farm products, a White House fact sheet showed, fueling opposition criticism over lack of transparency and impact on farmers in the South Asian nation.

The fact sheet mentioned that India will “eliminate or reduce tariffs” on a wide range of American food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains, red sorghum, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, certain pulses, soybean oil, wine and spirits, and additional products. Pulses and the vague reference to additional items were however not part of the joint statement the two nations issued on Feb. 6.

India is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of pulses and also imports them from nations including Canada, Australia, and Myanmar. The concessions will make US supplies more competitive compared with shipments from rivals.

As the details of the deal trickle out, concessions offered by India to American farm goods have sparked concerns among farmers’ group such as Samyukt Kisan Morcha, which has vowed to organize protests over the coming days, including a strike on Feb. 12.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which has long maintained that it will protect the interest of farmers in all trade pacts, has tried to assuage farmers’ fears over the interim trade deal the two nations agreed on after months of negotiations.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has repeatedly said that sensitive agricultural products such as dairy and poultry have been kept out of the trade talks, while no import concessions have been made for America’s genetically-modified crops.

Farmers — one of the most influential voting blocks in India — include millions of smallholders with less than 2 hectares (5 acres) of land. They’ve proved powerful in the past in effecting political change. In 2021, Samyukt Kisan Morcha and other agriculture groups forced Modi’s government to scrap three contentious farm laws through a yearlong protest movement.

India was considering lowering duties on pecans, pulses and non-genetically modified soybeans, as well as dried distilled grains, a by-product of ethanol production used in animal feed, Bloomberg reported earlier.

 

Brazil feedlot census shows 9.25 mln head in confinement

Some 9.25 million head of cattle passed through Brazilian feedlots in 2025, a 16% increase from 2024, as local ranchers continue to move away from a grass-fed model in large pasturelands.

According to annual feedlot census data compiled by animal nutrition company dsm-firmenich, cattle in the world’s largest beef exporter was confined across 2,445 properties in 1,095 towns, underscoring sprawling production in feedlots as a strategy to improve nutritional and weight-gain efficiency.

Dsm-firmenich census shows Brazil’s changing beef sector dynamics in a year the country surpassed the United States as the world’s largest beef producer.

Brazil’s higher than estimated beef output in 2025 helped ease a global supply crunch as U.S. cattle herds dropped to historically low levels. Brazil’s herd efficiency also stems from improved genetics and younger slaughter ages.

Feedlot use has grown steadily for the past 10 years in Brazil, census data showed, in line with the sector’s overall modernization.

Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest farming state, boasted the most head of cattle passing through feedlots last year: 2.2 million cattle, a nearly 30% increase from 2024, Census data showed.

Sao Paulo state confined 1.4 million cattle, up 7.7% from in the previous year, while Goias state confined the same amount, up 13.6% from 2024, census data showed.

Most of Brazil’s beef production stays in the local market while the bulk of exports is typically sold to China.

 

Australia 2026 Beef Exports to Stay Near Record Highs: StoneX

Australia’s beef exports for the coming year will decline slightly but remain near the record highs reached in 2025, according to new StoneX forecasts released on Wednesday.

• That’s the result of consistently high production levels in Australia and a persistent global protein shortage, the company said in its report
• But there may be a shift from China to other emerging markets due to new import quotas imposed by Beijing, it added
• StoneX is forecasting Australian beef exports will hit 1.5 million tons in 2026, just 5,000 tons below the record highs they hit in the previous year
• Demand for Australian beef has been bolstered significantly by the US herd sitting at a 75-year low, with analysts not expecting a rapid rebuild

 

COLD RISKS IN THE U.S. SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE MONTH, WITH FAVORABLY WARM/WET CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJOR WHEAT AREAS

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate (significant warmth)

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 10 days, low after that due to uncertainty about the degree to which warmth will linger or give way to a cold snap.

Model Change (from previous update): Increasing regional cold risks (Northeast U.S.) for late February.

 

 

 

 

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