Global Ag News For Dec 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

EU Reaches Deal on One-Year Delay to Deforestation Regulation

European Union negotiators agreed to delay by one year a landmark law to curb deforestation across the world and soften requirements that have been criticized at home and abroad for their bureaucratic burden and impact on trade.

The European Commission, European Parliament and EU Council representing member states reached a preliminary deal on amendments to the EU’s Deforestation Regulation at meeting in Brussels on Thursday. The postponement the negotiators backed is twice as long as originally proposed by the commission, and removes the need for an extra six-month grace period sought by the EU executive.

The EU regulation, known as EUDR, aims to tackle the felling of trees associated with imports into the bloc of key commodities, from soybeans and coffee to cocoa and palm oil. In the face of opposition by countries across the globe and by EU industry, policy makers were under pressure to change the law to avoid it taking effect in the current form later this month.

“The aim is to simplify the implementation of the existing rules and postpone their application to allow operators, traders and authorities to prepare adequately,” the EU Council said.

The provisional deal will still need to be formally approved by the EU Parliament and member states and published in the EU bulletin to become a law.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.18.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 20 3/4; Soymeal down $8.80; Soyoil down 0.09.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 20 3/4; Soymeal down $8.80; Soyoil down 0.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.9% in SRW, down 5.3% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 4.5%; Soybeans up 11.9%; Soymeal up 0.3%; Soyoil up 29.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 32 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil up 38; Corn up 24 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.14%) at 4152.

There were changes in registrations (-3 Soymeal, -19 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 224 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 4 were: SRW Wheat up 7,509 contracts, HRW Wheat up 618, Corn up 11,560, Soybeans up 2,350, Soymeal up 4,050, Soyoil up 1,505.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Adequate snow layer blankets all northern U.S. winter wheat regions, protecting dormant crops from the ongoing cold
• SOUTH AMERICA: According to the sub-seasonal forecasts, a trend to dry conditions is the most likely scenario during late December/early January for the continent
• BLACK SEA: Prolonged dryness will continue to threaten dormant crops in southern Ukraine and southwest Russia, worsening already low soil moisture
• EUROPE: The latest CPC soil moisture monthly update indicates adequate soil moisture across key winter wheat areas of E.U.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to reach a positive phase in the next week, supportive of warm/mild conditions in Europe until 15-19 December

 

Northern Plains: Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region through next week, but some warmer air may move in between those pushes of cold air as well. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days.

Central/Southern Plains: A front continues to move through the Southern Plains on Thursday with areas of showers. Another system and cold front will move through this weekend. There may not be much precipitation with it and warmer air will move in after it passes. However, another strong cold front is forecast for the middle of next week that could bring through another brief burst of colder air. The warmer air will eventually win out, but it may be brief as colder air will be favored for the second half of the month.

Midwest: Systems are favoring a clipper-like pattern through next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region. Some warmer temperatures may occur between systems, but should be brief overall. We should see some melting of the snow across the south, though. The precipitation that comes is unlikely to have much of an impact on the drought, but will increase snowpack in some areas across the north.

Delta: Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. A system is moving through on Thursday with some heavy rain across the south, but will not significantly increase water levels. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

Brazil: A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers and much-needed heavy rainfall. Models are finally getting this right and soil moisture is increasing for developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process. This drier stretch is being broken up by decent rainfall about once per week, which will include another shot of showers along a front moving through Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina: Argentina will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country, although soil moisture is still largely favorable in most areas.

Europe: Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest through next week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

Black Sea: Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers over the last week, which continues through next week as well. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

 

The player sheet for 12/4 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 392,500 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and 100,800 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia, all for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand was believed to have purchased animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender that closed on Wednesday
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group made no purchase in an international tender for about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn that closed on Thursday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued multiple international tenders to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, with price offers due on November 20, December 1, December 9 and December 15, European traders said.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers was November 28.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is December 9.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is December 11.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Oct. 30

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 30, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 282k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 500k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Oct. 30

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 30, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 11.6k tons of the 33.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Canada 2025 Wheat Crop Est. 40M Tons, Canola 21.8M: StatsCan

Wheat production seen 3.331m tons higher than previously expected, according to estimates released Thursday by Statistics Canada on its website.

• In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were expecting 38m tons
• Durum wheat revised up by 600,000 tons
• Canola revised up by 1.776m tons to 21.804m tons

 

Brazil November Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports rose 64% in November from a year ago
• Beef exports rose 40% y/y
• Coffee exports fell 26% y/y

 

China’s Trade Body Meets US Soybean Export Council: Report

Ren Hongbin, chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, met the US Soybean Export Council’s CEO Jim Sutter in Washington on Thursday and discussed enhancing agricultural cooperation, China Trade News reports.

• Representatives from Chinese companies including Cofco also attended the meeting
• China is a critically important and “irreplaceable” market for the US soybean industry, Sutter said, the Xinhua News Agency reports separately
• US-China soybean trade can be presented as a model for bilateral cooperation and rebuilding relations, setting a constructive direction for future engagement

 

Brazil soy exports jump 64% in November ahead of Chinese shift to US

Brazil’s soybean exports jumped 64% in November from a year ago to 4.2 million metric tons, the government said on Thursday, with good local supply allowing elevated shipments before the world’s largest importer China shifts to United States’ beans.

Brazil soy exports normally fall towards the end of the year as the country approaches the new harvest late on January or early February, but a record crop in 2025 means there are still enough supplies to keep foreign sales going, grain exports lobby Anec said on Thursday.

Anec projects December shipments to also increase sharply, around 90%, to 2.8 million tons. The industry group sees total Brazilian soy exports at 110 million tons in 2025 from 97.3 million tons in 2024.

China bought several vessels of soybeans from the U.S. recently, with loadings expected already in December. The Chinese buying is part of its trade deal with the U.S.

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 2.81 Million Tons In December – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.81 MILLION METRIC TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 1.47 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.99 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 3.62 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.33 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 2.17 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC

 

FAO Raises Global 2025-26 Grain Output and Stockpile Outlook

Global grain production outlook was raised to a record 3b tons, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• That’s up from its November estimate for 2.99b tons
  • Cites better wheat-output estimates
• Stockpiles are now seen at 925.5m tons, also a record high; compares with 916.3m tons estimated last month
  • The stock-to-use ratio is forecast to rise to 22.3% this season, the highest level since early 1990s

 

Indian refiners cancel soyoil import orders for December-January as global prices surge, traders say

Indian refiners have cancelled about 70,000 metric tons of crude soyoil scheduled for delivery between December and January, as rising global prices and a weaker rupee made local soyoil cheaper than imports, four trade sources told Reuters.

Refiners in India, which is the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, scrapped the orders as global soyoil prices jumped to the highest level in four months and the rupee fell to a record low, making locally produced soyoil much cheaper than imported supplies.

“There is a huge disparity in soyoil import prices, and refiners now expect to lose more than $70 per ton on imported oil,” said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

“As a result, many are cancelling the import contracts they signed in September.”

Refined soyoil is trading at about 124,700 rupees ($1,387.25) per ton in the domestic market, compared with roughly 132,100 rupees per ton for imported supplies.

The rupee fell to a record low of 90.42 on Thursday.

Indian buyers booked crude soyoil cargoes in September at around $1,100 to $1,120 per ton, including cost, insurance and freight, after major supplier Argentina scrapped export taxes on soybeans and other food products.

This week, soyoil prices jumped to about $1,230 per ton, tracking a rally in Chicago soyoil futures.

The surge prompted Indian refiners to cancel contracts priced between $1,150 and $1,170 per ton, locking in profits of more than $30 per ton, said the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to media.

The refiners reached a settlement with the sellers by accepting prices slightly below the current market rate, said an Indian buyer who operates a refinery on the east coast and cancelled shipments for January delivery.

Industry body Solvent Extractors’ Association of India did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the cancellations.

Crude soyoil is now being offered at roughly $1,220 per ton in India for January delivery, compared with about $1,140 a month ago.

Palm oil is currently trading at a discount of more than $100 per ton to soyoil, prompting refiners also to cancel soyoil contracts and switch to the cheaper alternative, said a Mumbai-based trader.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

USDA attaché leaves China 2025/26 soy import forecast at 106 mln T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Post forecasts China’s MY (marketing year) 25/26 soybean production at 19.9 MMT (million metric tons), while imports are projected at 106 MMT, down 1 MMT year-over-year as Beijing continues efforts to limit import growth. Rapeseed imports are projected to fall sharply to 3.1 MMT from 4.5 MMT following China’s imposition of antidumping duties on Canadian canola in August 2025. On November 1, the White House announced that China had made purchase commitments for soybeans following a meeting between President Trump and Xi and agreed to lift tariffs and other non-tariff barriers. On November 5, Beijing reduced its tariffs on soybeans by 10% and, on November 7, announced it would lift the suspension of three U.S.-based soybean shippers imposed in March 2025.”

“… Post maintains its soybean import forecast at 106 MMT for MY 25/26, unchanged from the previous report (dated September 26). For MY 24/25, Post also maintains its estimate for soybean imports at 107 MMT based on export totals reported by major exporters. The relatively stable forecast for soybean imports is linked to restrained growth in crushing demand at 2 percent and continued efforts by Beijing to limit import growth.”

 

Greer Says US Prioritizing Stability Over Conflict With China

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the US had prioritized a stable trade dynamic with China despite a push from some allies to take coordinated action against Beijing.

“I don’t think anyone wants to have a full-on economic conflict with China and we’re not having that,” Greer said Thursday at the American Growth Summit in Washington. “In fact, President Trump has had the opportunity to use all the leverage we have against China — and we’ve had a lot, right — whether it comes to software, semiconductors or all kinds of things. A lot of allies are interested in taking coordinated action, but the decision right now is we want to have stability in this relationship.”

Greer claimed that the US trade deficit with China was down “about 25%” since President Donald Trump came to office, a move in the “right direction” for a team seeking to balance the flow of goods. At the same time, he acknowledged that Chinese products were still making their way to the US, including by transshipment through other nations.

“For this moment in time, we want to make sure that China is buying the kinds of things from us we should be selling them: aircraft, chemicals, medical devices and agricultural products,” he said. “We can buy things from them that are not sensitive.”

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a deal in late October that saw the sides agree to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers. Still, some key elements of the deal — including the sale of the US operations of social video app TikTok, expanded soybean purchases, and an increase in licenses to export critical rare earths from China — remain works in progress.

Greer said the US was monitoring the relationship “literally on a daily basis.”

“But the decision right now is we want to have stability in this relationship,” Greer said. “We have to get our own house in order. We need to make sure that we are on a good path to reindustrialization, including for critical minerals.”

 

Global Food Prices Fell Last Month, Led by Sugar and Dairy: FAO

Global food prices declined in November, according to an index of food-commodity prices from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• The FAO food index fell 1.2% from a month earlier
  • The index has now declined for third consecutive month
• Grains prices rose
  • Wheat markets were bolstered by potential Chinese interest in US supplies, concerns over hostilities in the Black Sea region, and expectations of reduced plantings in Russia
• Meat index edged down 0.8%, partly amid ample poultry supplies
  • Pork prices also declined largely due to ample EU supplies and subdued Chinese demand
• Dairy prices fell by 3.1%, fueled by rising milk production and large exports in key producing regions
• Sugar index slumped 5.9% on ample global supplies

 

US owner of Russia’s major agriculture firm says no plans to sell

U.S. company NCH Capital said on Friday that it has no plans to sell a major Russian agricultural producer AgroTerra, which was placed under temporary state management by a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in April 2024.

On December 2, Russia’s second-largest bank VTB’s CEO Andrei Kostin said that the bank was in talks to buy AgroTerra, one of Russia’s top 20 agricultural landholders.

In a statement to Reuters, NCH said that NCH Agribusiness Partners, a private equity fund owned by a group of U.S. institutional investors and managed by New York-based NCH Capital, has “no plans to sell AgroTerra and is not in negotiations with any party regarding a possible sale.”

 

Brazil’s cotton exports seen growing about 10% in 2025/26 season, exporters group says

Brazilian cotton exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to grow by about 10% compared to the previous cycle to some 3.2 million metric tons, the president of Brazil’s association of cotton exporters Anea told Reuters.

THE OUTLOOK

• Anea’s president Dawid Wajs said the expected increase in exports should be driven by local competitiveness, diversification of buyers and higher purchases from India.
• India’s purchases have been boosted by New Delhi’s exemption of cotton import tariffs until December 31, Wajs said.
• India’s purchases represented about 16% of Brazil’s cotton exports so far this season, he said.

BY THE NUMBERS

• Brazilian cotton exports through October fell 7% year-on-year to about 677,000 tons due to a delayed harvest, according to Anea.
• Exports have been increasing and are expected to continue rising, Wajs said, noting Brazil has a significant stockpile to export.
• Official data released on Thursday by Brazil’s government showed cotton exports rising 34.4% in November from a year earlier to about 402,000 tons.

 

Refiners, Biofuel Firms Ask Trump For Year Round E15 Sales

The largest oil and gas trade group in the US has gone full circle on a proposal to allow year-round sales of fuels of higher ethanol blends — first backing it, then opposing and now supporting it again.

In a letter delivered Thursday to the White House, the American Petroleum Institute joined a coalition of biofuel producers and fuel retailers asking US President Donald Trump to push Congress to develop legislation on the issue. In October, however, API said it opposed a bill allowing for gasoline blended with up to 15% ethanol, called E15, to be sold year-round, marking a reversal at the time.

The Environmental Protection Agency said in a statement changes to biofuel regulations require an act of Congress. “EPA will follow the law accordingly,” it added.

When it comes to reforming the nation’s biofuel policy, the oil and agricultural industries have long agreed it needs to be done but differed on what to change. This letter represents the latest effort by the different industries to find common ground.

The letter also seeks to limit the EPA’s Small Refinery Exemptions program, which allows refiners to ask to be exempted from certain renewable fuel blending mandates. This year, the Trump administration has granted more than 100 full and partial exemptions to small refiners nationwide.

“The current SRE structure has encouraged a system of winners and losers that distorts the marketplace, creates instability, and ultimately, hurts consumers,” the letter says, according to a copy reviewed by Bloomberg News. “A more consistent and narrowly applied SRE structure would create a far more predictable regulatory environment.”

The sale of E15 historically has been restricted in the summer due to air pollution rules restricting sources of emissions that may worsen smog, although the EPA has issued some short-term emergency waivers to keep it in use. The API said that it has long supported a path towards full-year use of E15, but the legislation proposed earlier this year did not reflect industry needs.

 

Chinese state firm could be out under rules for Argentina’s Parana River tender, chamber says

Argentina will bar state-owned companies from other countries from participating in the bidding process for a maintenance concession for its Parana River, the president of the CIARA-CEC grain exporters and processors chamber said on Thursday, which could put a Chinese firm out of the running.

The Parana River carries the bulk of grains the South American country, a major world supplier of agricultural goods and exports abroad.

CIARA-CEC said bid documents would be published on Friday ahead of the tender, which will be formally opened at the end of December and awarded in May. The concession is expected to last 25 years and deepen dredging to at least 40 feet.

Chamber head Gustavo Idigoras did not name any countries banned from participating or give reasons for the exclusion, but Reuters has reported previously that a Chinese state-owned company, CCCC, was preparing a Parana dredging bid.

“The tender would include the condition that no foreign state-owned company, regardless of country, can participate,” said Idigoras.

Argentina’s national ports and navigation agency, the state entity which runs the country’s waterways, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

CIARA-CEC participated in various consultation meetings with private companies, organized by the libertarian government of President Javier Milei, who maintains a strong ties with the U.S.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest exporter of corn. The bulk of these shipments are transported on the Parana River, near the city of Rosario, from where they sail to the South Atlantic Ocean.

The tender comes as the Washington engages in a trade war with Beijing, with which it has tussled over economic influence across Latin America.

 

 

 

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