Global Ag News for Dec 4.23

TOP HEADLINES

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil up 0.09.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 46 1/4 in SRW, up 51 in HRW, up 28 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $26.80; Soyoil up 0.49.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal down $14.30; Soyoil down 0.72.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.1% in SRW, down 27.1% in HRW, down 25.2% in HRS; Corn is down 32.2%; Soybeans down 13.3%; Soymeal down 11.7%; Soyoil down 19.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil down 48; Palm oil down 44; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 52.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 52 ringgit (-1.34%) at 3822.

There were changes in registrations (436 Corn). Registration total: 2,946 SRW Wheat contracts; 522 Oats; 660 Corn; 596 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 557 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 1 were: SRW Wheat up 3,324 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,231, Corn down 1,260, Soybeans down 7,651, Soymeal down 5,380, Soyoil up 2,236.

Brazil: Scattered showers increased over central Brazil this weekend but also across the south, where rain was more widespread and heavy. Some areas of central Brazil continue to see lower rainfall amounts by happenstance. Scattered showers will continue over the country this week, but may be a little more isolated in coverage by the second half of the week. That is not certain, however, and precipitation will still be around, favoring those areas that are indeed hit by rain. Southern states continue to deal with too much rain this week but may get a better break this weekend into next week a bit. These areas need drier weather to drain saturated soils for developing corn and soybeans.

Argentina: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and another system will produce widespread, though perhaps lighter showers Tuesday and Wednesday. With another system moving through this coming weekend, conditions continue to be mostly favorable for planting and development of corn and soybeans.

Australia: Eastern areas have been much wetter in recent weeks, which has disrupted the wheat and canola harvest, but favored the development of cotton and sorghum crops. Western areas have been drier. Some rain will move through later this week which may be more beneficial for developing cotton and sorghum but continue to disrupt the wheat and canola harvest, which may cause quality concerns as well.

Northern Plains: It was quite and warm over the weekend. A weak clipper will move through Monday with some mixed showers. Another system will move across the Canadian border Thursday with scattered showers in some areas. A cold front will move through with the system but temperatures behind the front will still be mild or warm for December.

Central/Southern Plains: Limited showers moved through over the weekend, which continue on Monday across the north. A cold front will move through on Friday and may develop a system with scattered showers, but models disagree with this development. Cooler air may fill in for a couple of days behind the front, but will still be relatively mild for December in most areas. Southwestern areas could use more soil moisture, but have the winter season to see good precipitation to potentially eliminate drought.

Midwest: A couple of systems moved through the region over the weekend, spreading scattered showers and even some thunderstorms through. A weak clipper will move through early this week with a mix of rain and snow, but with limited or no accumulation. Very warm temperatures will flood the region mid-to-late week. A cold front will move through Friday and Saturday with some slightly cooler temperatures, but with potential for increased precipitation as well. If the precipitation occurs, it would help with the remaining drought areas and increases for water levels on the Mississippi River.

Delta: Scattered showers fell over southern areas this weekend but it will be quieter this week. A front will come through with potential for widespread precipitation Friday through the weekend, which may help with the drought and increasing water levels on the Mississippi River.

The player sheet for Dec. 1 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China, and another 198,000 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1.

PENDING TENDERS

• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 20,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: The Lebanese government issued an international tender to purchase 30,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 110,000 metric tons of wheat.

TODAY

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 461.5M Bu in October

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 2.9% higher than in October 2022
• DDGS production rose to 1.796m tons

US Soybean Crushings at 201M Bushels in October: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 2.4% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 1.6% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 28% y/y

Brazil November Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Soybean exports more than doubled from last year
• Corn exports rose 26% y/y

Cargill Closes Acquisition of Plants From Brazil’s Granol

Cargill concludes its acquisition of plants and storage sites from Brazilian biodiesel maker Granol, the company says Friday by email.

• Acquisition was approved by Cade, Brazil’s antitrust authority
• Deal includes three soybean processing plants and four storage facilities
• “Cargill positions itself as one of the country’s main biodiesel producers and expands its operations in the soybean crushing segment,” company says

Brazil 2023/24 Soybean Crop Seen at 161.9 Million Tns – Stonex

• BRAZIL 2023/24 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 161.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS 165.03 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• BRAZIL 2023/24 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 97.33 MILLION TNS VERSUS 98.96 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• BRAZIL 2023/24 FIRST CORN CROP SEEN AT 26.45 MILLION TNS VERSUS 26.77 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

Field Work In Brazil’s 2023/2024 Soy Planting Has Progressed Amid Return Of Some Rains- Patria Agronegocios

• BRAZIL PLANT HARVEST 83.33% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 93.43% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS
• FIELD WORK IN BRAZIL’S 2023/2024 SOY PLANTING HAS PROGRESSED AMID RETURN OF SOME RAINS- PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

Southwestern Argentina Wheat Production Seen Down 27%: Crop Tour

Production in Argentina’s southwest region is estimated at 2.8 million tons, down 27% from last season, as below-average rains eroded yields, Bahia Blanca Grain Exchange says after a two-day crop tour that analyzed 250 fields.

• Monitored area totals ~1.2 million hectares (2.97m acres), or ~21% of total wheat area in Argentina
• NOTE: Losses seen more than offset by higher yields in coastal areas, which are not directly tracked by the exchange

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: High demand from abroad boosts liquidity and supports prices in BR

Higher demand from abroad has boosted the liquidity in Brazilian soybean market this week, supporting prices. Between Nov. 23-30, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, to BRL 145.74 per 60-kg bag and BRL 139.39/bag on Nov. 30. Monthly averages, in turn, kept unchanged for the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) and increased 0.9% for the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná), compared to that in October.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and remained stable in the wholesale market (deals between processors) between Nov. 23-30. Considering monthly averages, however, values moved up 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively.

According to Secex, Brazilian soybean exports reached 5.2 million tons in November, volume 105.8% superior to that verified in the same month 2022 and a record for the period.

In the domestic market, Cepea also indicates sellers with more interest in trading soybean to be deliveried between December/23 and January/24. The reason is the necessity of releasing warehouses to receive the product of 2023/24 crop in Brasil.

CROPS – Players are still concerned about unfavorable weather conditions, influenced by El Nino. Conab says that 75.2% of the national area had been planted up to November 25, below the 86.1% registered in the same period of the last season.

CORN/CEPEA: Prices remain increasing by firm pace of exports and domestic demand

Corn prices continue to move up in the Brazilian market, boosted by the firm pace of exports and high domestic demand. Moreover, sellers keep refrained, offering small volumes in the spot market, betting on new valuations – they are also still focused on delays in the summer crop sowing activities, which may affect the second crop.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) closed at BRL 62.74 (USD 12.74)/bag on November 30, the highest value since early May this year – BRL 62.85 (USD 12.59)/bag –, and moving up 2.5% compared to that on Nov. 23. The November average BRL 60.65 (USD 12.38)/bag, is the highest since April/23, in nominal terms.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, between Nov. 23 and 30, corn prices increased 3.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 2.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

According to Secex, Brazilian corn exports reached 7.4 million tons in November, volume 25.7% superior to that verified in the same month 2022.

CROPS – Sowing activities have gained pace over the last days, favored by the rains the Central-Western and the Southeastern areas in Brazil and also the lower volume of rainfall in the South. According to Conab, 55% of the summer crop area had been planted until November 25, a delay of 13.6 percentage points compared to the crop before.

India’s Nov palm oil imports jump 22% on lower prices-dealers

India’s palm oil imports in November jumped more than a fifth from the previous month as refiners favoured the tropical oil due to steep discounts compared with rival soyoil and sunflower oil, five dealers told Reuters on Monday.

Higher purchases by the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils could help lower palm oil stocks in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and support benchmark futures.

India’s November palm oil imports jumped 22% from a month earlier to 867,000 metric tons, the highest in three months, estimates from dealers showed.

The discount on palm oil to soyoil and sunflower oil has been widening over the past few weeks, encouraging refiners to switch to palm oil, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Higher palm oil imports lifted India’s total edible oil imports in November 1.13 million metric tons, up 13% from a month earlier, dealers said.

Edible oil stocks in the country have surged close to a record high, prompting refiners to liquidate port stocks before making fresh orders, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader and broker GGN Research.

Domestic stocks of vegetable oil jumped to 3.1 million tons by Nov. 1 from 2.45 million a year earlier, said trade body Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), which is likely to publish its data on November imports by mid-December.

Soyoil imports in November rose 7% from a month earlier to 145,000 tons, but far below average imports of 306,000 tons in the last marketing year, dealers estimated.

Soyoil imports have been declining for the past two months due to negative refining margins, its hefty premium over rival oils and an increase in local supplies, said Vipin Gupta, chief executive officer of Dubai-based trader Glentech Group.

Sunflower oil imports fell by 21% to stand at 122,000 tons, the lowest in 17 months, dealers said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Brazil’s BRF to up direct grain purchases in bid to boost traceability

Brazilian food processor BRF BRFS3.SA plans to increase its direct purchases of grain from farmers to 40% of its total by next year, as it seeks to increase control over its production chain while trying to reach traceability goals, executives said.

The pork and poultry processor, one of Brazil’s largest buyers of corn and soybeans, bought 17% of the material used to make feed directly from producers last year, and 32% in 2023.

To expand direct purchases, the company has adopted measures such as moving employees from the corporate segment to units in the countryside, reinforcing grain purchasing staff in states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Minas Gerais.

BRF also unveiled an updated goal to have 100% traceability from direct and indirect suppliers by 2025, Director of Reputation and Sustainability Raquel Ogando told Reuters.

The firm already has 100% traceability of direct grain suppliers in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, while this year it will increase traceability from indirect suppliers to 75%, from 45%.

Ogando also said that BRF has set the end of 2025 as its target to end grain purchases from legally deforested areas of the Brazilian Cerrado biome.

Under Brazilian legislation, farmers have the right to deforest part of their property, with limits varying according to the biome.

But the director stressed that BRF will not work with grains from legally deforested areas of any biome from 2026 onward, pointing out that the firm has not bought from deforested areas in the Amazon since 2008.

“We set 2025 as the cut-off date, in line with the principles of SBTi (science-based targets),” said Ogando.

 

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