Global Ag News For Dec 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China vows to stabilize grain, edible oil production in key meeting

China must stabilize grain and edible oil production, improve grain varieties and enhance quality, state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday, following a meeting of the annual Central Rural Work Conference from December 29 to 30.

The group, which sets China’s agricultural priorities, pledged to “enhance the capacity for diversified food supply” and “promote high-quality development of high-standard farmland through zoned and categorised planning,” Xinhua said.

China is highly reliant on imports to feed its people and tensions with the U.S., a major agricultural trading partner, have accelerated a domestic self-sufficiency drive that includes investments in machinery and seed technology.

“We must not relax our efforts in grain production, promote the integration of high-quality land, high-quality seeds, high-quality machinery and high-quality farming methods to enhance the overall agricultural production capacity and quality,” a readout of the meeting released by Xinhua read.

The readout said China would “make every possible effort” to increase farmers’ income and promote stable employment for migrant workers, as Beijing seeks food security in the face of economic challenges and pressures from urbanization.

The readout also said China would launch province-wide pilot programs to extend rural land-use contracts for another 30 years after current contracts expire around 2027.

China’s total grain output hit a new record this year, up 1.2% from 2024 to 714.9 million tons, according to statistics bureau data released earlier this month.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 78 1/2; Soymeal down $19.50; Soyoil down 3.23.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.9% in SRW, down 5.7% in HRW, down 3.2% in HRS; Corn is down 3.6%; Soybeans up 5.3%; Soymeal down 2.7%; Soyoil up 22.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 45 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil up 46; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 23.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.57%) at 4070.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 29 were: SRW Wheat up 4,721 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,176, Corn up 11,894, Soybeans down 15,996, Soymeal down 9,591, Soyoil down 13,259.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 30 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks are expected in the Midwest and Northeast, while the rest of the U.S. will remain warmer over the next 5 days. Snowfall will occur across the northern Midwest, the far Northern Plains, and parts of the East.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cooler temperatures with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and warmer temperatures.
• EUROPE: Colder temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions expected to experience wet weather.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed temperatures in China. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast and central Japan.
• TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Hayley is making landfall over the Dampier Peninsula and will later move ashore near King Sound in Western Australia. The system is expected to weaken rapidly and fully dissipate inland within 36–48 hours.

WIDESPREAD DRYNESS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE ARGENTINIAN CROP AREAS IN JANUARY

What to Watch:

• Drought risks may rise by mid-January for Argentinian Pampas, despite current moisture and cooling trends
• A reversal of the precipitation pattern next week across Brazil will be favorable for coffee, sugarcane, soybean and 1st corn crop

Northern Plains: Blizzard conditions developed in the eastern Dakotas late this weekend as strong winds developed behind a large system. Temperatures will fluctuate between above and below average this week with most of the warmer temperatures favoring Montana and the western Dakotas. Clipper systems will provide light snow, mainly favoring the eastern Dakotas.

Central/Southern Plains: A cold front moved through late this weekend and temperatures plummeted below freezing in the Central Plains today. After the middle of this week, temperatures will trend above average and warmth will continue through early next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

Midwest: After last week’s warmer temperatures, a stronger system entered the region on Sunday and will continue through today. Strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy snow, and thunderstorms are accompanying this system. Temperatures will cool off behind this system and clipper systems will move through during the middle of the week.

Delta: Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River last week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Showers will be limited this week and an overall dry forecast into January is concerning for river transportation.

Brazil: Showers were isolated over west-central Brazil last week while east-central areas have been very hot and dry, concerning for soybeans that continue to get into the pod-fill stage. That will accelerate in January. Rain showers will be more widespread across central Brazil this week and showers also look to continue across southern Brazil, favorable for maturing corn.

Argentina: Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. Showers look isolated in the north this week with mostly dry conditions in central and southern areas, which could increase stress on developing corn and soybeans.

 

The player sheet for 12/29 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 17,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, and sellers of 3,500 soymeal.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 100,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Monday. The deadline for price offers is January 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Monday. The deadline for price offers is January 7.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said on Monday. The deadline for price offers is December 30.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.301m Tons of Corn for Export, 750k of Soybeans

In week ending Dec. 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 302k tons vs 636k the previous wk, 339k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,301k tons vs 1,747k the previous wk, 908k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 750k tons vs 929k the previous wk, 1,644k a yr ago

 

Algeria to Import 1.15M Tons of Feed Corn to Plug Shortage

North African nation plans to import 1.15m tons of feed corn through February and will start establishing a national inventory of the commodity after a domestic supply shortage, the Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry says in a statement.

• Decisions will ensure “regular and continuous supply and market stability”
• State-run National Livestock and Poultry Feed Office (ONAB) will take delivery of the first cargoes totaling 250,000 tons by Jan. 1To contact the reporter on this

 

Russian govt keeps quota for wheat exports from Crimea at 400,000 tonnes for 2026, introduces quota for barley exports

The quota for wheat exports from Crimea and Sevastopol will be 400,000 tonnes from January 1 to December 31, 2026, with the corresponding government resolution signed on December 27 this year and published on the official portal of legal information.

This level corresponds to the quota for 2025, which is valid from March 1 to December 31.

In addition, the government has introduced a quota for barley exports in the amount of 150,000 tonnes for 2026.

The government also determined the duties at which wheat will be exported as well as the procedure for their distribution.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Despite area decrease, prices drop in most part of 2025

The area planted with wheat in Brazil decreased again in 2025, especially in Paraná. The decrease is related to problems faced in 2024, when unfavorable weather conditions affected both the productivity and the profitability, discouraging producers to make new investments. According to Conab, the planted area in 2025 was 20% below that verified in 2024 and the smallest since 2020.

In spite of the smaller area, both production and productivity may finish this year at higher levels compared to those last year, favored by the weather.

As for prices in the domestic market, there have been two trends in 2025. In the first semester, quotations remained firm, sustained by the lower supply compared to the demand. From May on, however, the progress of sowing activities, high ending stocks and the pressure from the high global supply shifted the price trend.

In the second semester, with the progress of the harvesting in Brazil, quotations have started to drop more significantly. This context was reinforced by the downward scenario abroad (record global crop and high expectations for the crop in Argentina). Constant price decreases in this period arouse concerns about producers’ profitability.

Moreover, the valuation of Real against dollar quotations during the year increased the competitiveness of the imported wheat, especially the one from Argentina. The reduction of retenciones in that country contributed to make the international product even more attractive to purchasers in Brazil. In this scenario, sellers in the domestic market ended up reducing quotations in order to follow the international downward trend.

According to data from Cepea, between December 30, 2024 and December 26, 2025, prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 13% in Paraná, 16.9% in Rio Grande do Sul and 13.6% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved down 15.5% in PR, 19.5% in RS and 7.9% in SC.

 

Soy trading firms to abandon Amazon protection pact in Brazil

• ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Cofco signed 2006 agreement to protect Brazil’s Amazon forest with soy farming moratorium
• Mato Grosso law strips tax incentives from conservation program participants
• Emboldened farm lobby threatens other environmental protections
• Soy moratorium credited with saving a rainforest area the size of Ireland
• Grain traders received tax incentives worth about $840 million between 2019 and 2024

Some of the world’s largest soybean traders are preparing to break their agreement to curb deforestation of the Amazon rainforest to preserve tax benefits in Brazil’s top farm state, two people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The firms exiting the so-called Amazon Soy Moratorium, which has saved millions of acres of tropical forest over nearly two decades, are looking to shield themselves from a new state law in Mato Grosso, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Starting in January, the state will strip tax incentives from companies taking part in the conservation program. Mato Grosso grew some 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, more than Argentina.

A preliminary report from state auditors in April found that grains traders had benefited from tax incentives worth about 4.7 billion reais ($840 million) between 2019 and 2024.

ADM and Bunge were the top beneficiaries of tax incentives, receiving about 1.5 billion reais ($269 million) each, said Sergio Ricardo, head of the Mato Grosso state audit court.

U.S.-based ADM, Bunge and Cargill, as well as China’s Cofco and Brazil’s Amaggi, are signatories of the pact with facilities in Mato Grosso that have benefited from state tax incentives. It was not clear which of the firms would break immediately from the moratorium.

Cargill referred questions to industry group Abiove, which did not respond to requests for comment. ADM, Bunge, Cofco, Amaggi and grain exporter group Anec did not respond to questions.

“Most companies will choose not to lose the tax incentives and will withdraw from the agreement,” said one of the sources, adding that the departures would effectively end a pact signed in 2006 with the federal government and conservation groups.

The moratorium is considered one of the most important forces slowing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades as it bars signatories from buying soybeans from farmers who plant on land deforested after July 2008.

Researchers estimate that an area of the rainforest the size of Ireland would have been lost to soy farms in Brazil without the moratorium and related conservation efforts, compared to the pace of expansion in neighboring countries such as Bolivia.

The Mato Grosso law, which lawmakers passed in 2023, is the latest example of a global retreat from pacts and policies to curb climate change, even as temperatures break records, driven by rising fossil fuel use and deforestation.

Critics of the soy moratorium say that the pact restricts the market and hurts farmers. Farming groups in Mato Grosso say the protocol reduces the income and economic development of the state.

“Companies could choose to keep their zero-deforestation commitments,” said Cristiane Mazzetti, who oversees the moratorium for Greenpeace. “It’s a dangerous precedent, and it’s not what we need in a moment of climate emergency,” she added.

Brazil’s federal government has argued in court against the new Mato Grosso law stripping tax breaks from traders due to their environmental commitments.

“If the Mato Grosso government really removes those incentives, we have heard that some, or many, companies will in fact abandon the moratorium for economic reasons,” said Andre Lima, a senior Environment Ministry official tasked with combating deforestation. He added that firms had not officially informed the ministry of their plans.

 

 

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