Global Ag News For Dec 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Jim Beam Halts Production at Key US Distillery Amid Bourbon Glut

Bourbon maker Jim Beam plans to pause production at its main US distillery for all of 2026 after slumping demand caused an oversupply of whiskey.

The brand, owned by Japanese alcohol giant Suntory Holdings Ltd., said it’s halting whiskey distillation at the James B. Beam campus in Clermont, Kentucky after an assessment of its production levels against consumer demand, according to a statement on Monday.

Bottles of Jim Beam Bourbon on a conveyor belt inside the bottling plant at the Jim Beam Bourbon Distillery in Clermont, Kentucky.

The company plans to use the downtime to invest in site enhancements. Production will still continue at the smaller Fred B. Noe craft distillery in Clermont and the Booker Noe site in Boston, it added.

Sales of bourbon have slowed as consumers rein in spending and drinking, and as uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and taxes on aging barrels weigh on the sector, the Kentucky Distillers’ Association said in October. There are about 16.1 million barrels — a record — of bourbon aging in warehouses in Kentucky as of January, though most won’t be ready to bottle until after 2030, the association said.

Jim Beam, which employs about 6,000 people worldwide, did not announce layoffs. Bottling and warehousing operations will continue at the brand’s James B. Beam campus, while its visitor center and restaurant remain open, it said.

Suntory, which also owns soft drinks such as Orangina, is grappling with the fallout of Takeshi Niinami’s resignation as chief executive officer in September after Japanese police raided his home as part of an investigation into suspected illegal cannabis-based supplements. Niinami was one of the country’s best-known and most outspoken business leaders.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil down 0.09.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $2.00; Soyoil up 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 79; Soymeal down $20.90; Soyoil down 3.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.3% in SRW, down 6.6% in HRW, down 2.7% in HRS; Corn is down 2.3%; Soybeans up 5.7%; Soymeal down 2.5%; Soyoil up 21.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 13 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil up 116; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 51.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 51 ringgit (+1.28%) at 4036.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 22 were: SRW Wheat down 327 contracts, HRW Wheat up 394, Corn down 1,380, Soybeans down 10,552, Soymeal down 6,305, Soyoil down 2,544.

 

RISING FLOOD RISKS IN THE NORTHERN ARGENTINIAN PAMPAS

What to Watch:

• Heavy rain is forecast for the northern Argentinian Pampas, with the risk of flooding and excess moisture
• A prolonged trend to dry weather in the Southern Pampas will affect corn and soybean during a crucial stage of crop development
• Short-term heat and dryness may adversely impact sugarcane/coffee in South-Central/Southeast Brazil

 

CROP REGIONS IN SOUTHWEST RUSSIA WILL FACE ONGOING COLD RISKS IN JANUARY

What to Watch:

• Severe cold in Continental Russia could impact winter wheat in the Volga and Southern Districts, though snow cover is likely to reduce the risk
• A warm monthly outlook is expected for Western Europe, but with reduced confidence and likely cold weather prevailing in early January
• No significant precipitation anomalies across most of Europe and Eurasia

 

Brazil: A front that moved into the south on Sunday will be stalled there for most of the week, producing more widespread and largely beneficial rainfall. Scattered showers continue over much of central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining.

Argentina: A front moved through this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front should stall across the far north for most of the week. Another front will move through the country this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday. 

Midwest – West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Midwest – East: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 12/22 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 396,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China, including 330,000 metric tons for delivery in 2025/2026 and 66,000 metric tons for 2026/2027 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Monday.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat, European traders said.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on Monday was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders said. Offers were still being considered and no purchase had yet been reported, they said.

PENDING TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender is December 23.
• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, a copy of the tender sent to European traders showed. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 30.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.744m Tons of Corn for Export, 870k of Soybeans

In week ending Dec. 18, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 627k tons vs 489k the previous wk, 427k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,744k tons vs 1,605k the previous wk, 1,147k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 870k tons vs 810k the previous wk, 1,775k a yr ago

 

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Dec. 4

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 4, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1.01m tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 665k tons
• Report was initially delayed due to the US government shutdown; click here for USDA’s announcement and schedule for releasing reports missed during this period

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Dec. 4

The following  shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 4, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• South Korea bought 8.6k tons of the 30.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

US CROP EXPORTS: 396,000 Tons of Soybeans to China

The US Department of Agriculture on Monday announces export sales activity on its website:

• 330,000 tons are for 2025-26 marketing year and 66,000 tons for 2026-27

 

Odesa Port Facilities, Vessel Damaged in Russia Drone Attack

Facilities and a civilian vessel in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa were damaged as a result of Russian drone attack late on Monday, regional governor Oleh Kiper, says on Telegram.

• Emergency services were working to eliminate the consequences of the attack, Kiper said early on Tuesday
• A civilian ship under the Lebanese flag, which was transporting Ukrainian soybeans, was damaged in the overnight attack, Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba says in a post on Telegram; adding that there were no casualties

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soybean Est. Raised to 180.4M MT: AgRural

Estimate raised from 178.5 million metric tons in Nov., according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Average yield seen at 61.2 bags/ha; area estimated at 49.1 million ha
• NOTE: A bag weighs 60kg (132 pounds)
• Harvest has started in Brazil in some locations, but works likely won’t advance before January

 

Russia cuts wheat area amid falling margins, Sovecon says

Russia, the world’s largest grain exporter, is gradually sowing less wheat due to falling margins since export taxes were introduced in 2021, the Sovecon consultancy said on Monday.

Sovecon said that Russian farmers sowed 16.1 million hectares with winter wheat this year, down from 16.2 million last year and 16.9 million hectares in 2023.

The winter wheat area peaked at 17.8 million hectares in 2021 and has been declining since. Sovecon predicted that the area sown with spring wheat will also decline to 10.7 million hectares in 2026 from 11.1 million in 2024.

The overall wheat area is expected to fall to 26.3 million hectares from 26.9 million hectares, while the average wheat yield will edge down to 3.2 tons per hectare from 3.3 tons.

“The profitability of grain production has been declining in recent years,” Sovecon analysts said. They added that grain farmers’ aggregate profits fell by more than a quarter to 69 billion roubles in January–September 2025.

Sovecon blamed floating wheat export taxes, a major irritant for Russian farmers, introduced in 2021 to protect the domestic market from excessive exports, for the declining margins in wheat farming.

The consultancy noted that other global wheat exporters such as France and Ukraine have been increasing their wheat areas.

Sovecon forecasts that Russia will harvest 83.8 million tons of wheat in 2026, down from 88.8 million this year. The government officially forecasts the 2026 wheat harvest at 90 million tons.

 

Russian wheat maintains position in Middle East – Agroexport center

Russia has increased exports of wheat to the Middle East 0.4% year-on-year to 8.8 million tonnes since the start of the current season on July 1, 2025, the Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport center said.

Turkey has traditionally been the key supply destination, purchasing 3.3 million tonnes, up nearly 1.8-fold year-on-year. However, Turkey imported only 3.4 million tonnes from Russia last season versus a five-year average of 7.6 million tonnes.

Shipments to Israel jumped 26% to 1.1 million tonnes.

Agroexport emphasizes that the effective opening of the Iraqi market to Russian wheat has been a significant event of the current season. There had previously been no significant or regular shipments to the country.

“However, a record volume of 300,000 tonnes has been delivered to Iraq since the start of the current season. Moreover, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Iraq’s import potential averages between 2.6 and 4 million tonnes per season, indicating an additional niche for Russian wheat sales,” the Agroexport said.

 

Russia Confirms 53m-55m Tons Grain Exports Plan: Izvestia

“There is an understanding” that Russian supply volumes will increase when the price situation changes, Izvestia cites Russian Deputy Premier Dmitry Patrushev as saying.

• This year’s grain harvest is expected to reach 137m tons in net weight despite difficult weather conditions in several regions
• This year’s soybean harvest will exceed 8.5m tons; its geography has expanded significantly from the original Far East
• Self-sufficiency in seeds is expected to approach 70% by end-2025 vs 60% three years ago
• Self-sufficiency in beetroot seeds may reach about 20% this year

 

Indonesia Sets 2026 Biodiesel Quota at 15.7 Million Kiloliters

Indonesia will allocate 15.65 million kiloliters of palm-based biodiesel for blending with gasoil in 2026, similar to this year’s quota, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

• About 48% or 7.45 million kiloliters of that will be allocated for public service sectors, Director General for New and Renewable Energy, Eniya Listiani Dewi, told Bloomberg News
• The remaining 8.2 million kiloliters will go to non-public sectors, which includes industrial and commercial use
• NOTE: Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, is currently conducting safety tests on the use of 50% palm-based biofuel and is expected to boost the current 40% mandate by the second half of 2026

 

Indonesia expects normal wet season in 2026, weather agency says

Indonesia’s wet season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and authorities should work to improve efficiency during the harvest of key crops like palm oil, its meteorological agency said on Tuesday.

Agency climate official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said a La Nina weather pattern, which typically brings more rainfall, was expected to be weaker in 2026 and should conclude by the end of the first quarter.

“Climate conditions that are not as wet as 2025 can be optimised for the efficiency of harvests and the logistics of palm plantations,” he told reporters.

He added that sugarcane and tobacco producers should also prepare for rain during the dry season.

Indonesia is an archipelago of thousands of islands, and weather patterns vary widely.

Indonesia is expected to transition into the dry season in June, Ardhasena said, and authorities should also anticipate a drop in air quality due to industrial emissions and also in areas where forest fires are common.

The 2023 dry season was Indonesia’s most severe in four years due to an El Nino weather phenomenon that brought prolonged drought, damaging crops and exacerbating forest fires.

 

Indonesia Says Prabowo, Trump to Ink Trade Deal in January

Indonesia said it has resolved all substantive issues in trade talks with the US and is on course to ink an agreement in late January, removing a major source of uncertainty for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

Both countries have aligned on the “crucial issues” in their draft agreement, protecting the mutual interests of both parties, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said in an online presentation on Tuesday, after meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Monday.

The trade agreement will be signed by both President Prabowo Subianto and President Donald Trump, with the Indonesian leader expected to travel to the US at the end of January, said Dwisuryo Indroyono Soesilo, Indonesian ambassador to the US at the same briefing.

The rupiah and government bond yield were little changed after the report, while Indonesian stocks slipped 0.3% on Tuesday. The currency is Asia’s second-worst performer in 2025, having declined 4%.

“That should take away one of the uncertainties that has been a drag on the rupiah,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. He added that a meaningful recovery in the currency would require improvements in domestic growth and fiscal conditions, as well as the return of foreign capital.

The US is one of Indonesia’s top trading partners, contributing the largest non-oil and gas trade surplus of $17 billion last year, according to official data. Indonesia’s main exports to the US include electronics, textiles, fishery products, footwear and palm oil.

The US has agreed to exempt tariffs on Indonesian key products including palm oil, cocoa, coffee and tea, said Hartarto, Indonesia’s lead negotiator. The US gets more access to Indonesia’s critical minerals, Hartarto said.

Hartarto said the substance of the draft agreement is broadly in line with the framework that was reached by both countries’ leaders in July. It mainly affects labor-intensive industries that employ an estimated 5 million workers in the nation.

Under the July accord, Indonesia was to eliminate tariffs on over 99% of US goods and remove non-tariff barriers, in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on Indonesian products from a threatened 32% to 19%. Indonesia had also agreed to purchase roughly $19 billion in American products, including 50 Boeing Co. jets and agricultural goods.

Earlier this month, negotiations were said to have hit sticking points. US officials claimed Indonesia had backtracked on its commitments, while Jakarta resisted US demands that it feared could limit its autonomy in engaging in strategic trade and investment agreements with other countries.

Similar concerns over sovereignty emerged in a recent US deal with neighboring Malaysia. Of particular concern for Indonesia was the potential impact on the critical mineral and energy sector, and its commerce with China and Russia.

“No Indonesian policies are restricted by this agreement,” Hartarto said, when asked about the US demands. The latest negotiations mainly involving linguistic harmonization, as is normal in reaching a trade agreement, he said.

The deal between Indonesia and the US “is commercial and strategic in nature and benefits the economic interests of both countries equally,” Hartarto said.

 

Egypt’s State Buyer Picks Up Another 700,000 Tons of Wheat

Egypt’s wheat-buying agency Mostakbal Misr has purchased another 700,000 tons of wheat, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• The supply is for shipment in January and February, said the person, who requested anonymity to discuss private transactions
• The grain was purchased in deals last week, with supplies from Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, Romania and France, they said

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices are firm in Brazil

The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained practically stable last week in Rio Grande do Sul and in Paraná. As for values in the wholesale market (deals between processors), trends were different between states: in Rio Grande do Sul, quotations moved up, influenced by the dollar valuation against Real, but dropped in Paraná because of the low demand in this period of the year.

According to data from Cepea, between December 12 and 19, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 0.92% in Rio Grande do Sul and remained stable in Santa Catarina, but moved down 0.26% in Paraná and 0.89% in São Paulo. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased 0.07% in Paraná and 0.16% in Rio Grande do Sul, but upped 1.07% in SC. The US dollar increased 2.14% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.529 on December 19.

 

USDA Lost a Third of DC Staff Even Before Relocation Effort

About a third of the US Department of Agriculture’s employees in the Washington area left the agency from January to June, as the Trump administration sought to aggressively trim what it sees as excessive government spending.

More than 1,000 employees at the agency’s Washington, DC, headquarters departed in the first half of the year, according to a Dec. 17 report from the agency’s Office of Inspector General. About 18% of the USDA’s total employees — amounting to more than 20,000 workers — left during the period.

The moves came even before the USDA said in July that it would more than halve its DC-based workforce and relocate employees elsewhere, sparking concern about further departures.

The report sheds more insight on the regional and agency-specific impacts of a voluntary resignation program that the Trump administration launched across several government agencies in late January. More than 15,000 employees accepted that program, Bloomberg Government reported in May. Roughly 2,000 employees also resigned, while another 1,280 retired, according to the report.

A spokesperson said the USDA aims to “return the department to a customer-service focused, farmer-first agency,” and added that it has not stopped hiring for critical roles that protect Americans, national forests and food safety.

The extent of departures varied within the USDA’s agencies. The US Forest Service lost 5,860 employees, about 16% of its employees, while a quarter of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service left the agency. At the National Resources Conservation Service, 22% departed.

Also heavily affected were research-focused areas: The National Institute of Food and Agriculture lost 35% of its staff, and the National Agricultural Statistics Service shed more than a third.

 

 

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