Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 11; HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 115 yuan in soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 72 in Soymeal, down 78 in Soyoil, and down 74 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 10 ringgit at 3,416 (basis March) despite talk of export duties in January.
A few more showers should be thrown into Argentina’s forecast for next week, but no generalized rain is likely. Overall, Argentina will continue on a ten-day bout of restricted precipitation and rising crop stress (except in the far west)
Brazil crop weather will remain good form center west to center south through the next couple of weeks with net drying in the far south and in a few far northeastern crop areas.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; net bought 17,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 313,000 Corn; net long 239,000 Soybeans; net long 98,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 106,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 30 contracts; HRW Wheat up 705; Corn up 2,900; Soybeans up 4,000 contracts; Soymeal down 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,300.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 65 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,421 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,061.
China is expected to import more than 100 million tonnes of soybeans in 2020, a record high, said an executive with leading state-owned grains trader COFCO on Tuesday, as rebuilding of the country’s huge hog herd boosts demand for the protein.
The country is expected to crush 92.6 million tonnes of the beans this year, Zhou Jishuai, deputy general manager of the hedging and trading department of COFCO Oils and Oilseeds, a unit of COFCO Group, told a conference in Guangzhou.
More than 100 cargo ships were kept from loading agricultural goods in Argentina on Monday, as a wage strike by grains inspectors and oilseed workers stretched into its second week, paralyzing exports. Contract talks between workers and export companies have broken down over compensation packages, with both sides accusing the other of intransigence.
The prolongation of a workers’ strike in the ports of Argentina may disrupt wheat millers’ operations in Brazil, especially if the labor action is not called off before the end of the year.
Ukraine’s traders union UGA said on Monday the government had assured market players that it would not imposed additional grain export limits for the 2020/21 July-June season. They assured that the export volumes are in line with the agreements … and therefore the government will not initiate any restrictions on the export of grain and oilseeds.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started in July had reached 12.08 million tonnes by Dec. 20, official EU data showed. That was 17% below the volume cleared by the same week last year.
EU and UK 2020/21 barley exports had reached 3.58 million tonnes, down 8%, while maize imports stood at 7.91 million tonnes, down 24%.
Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started in July totalled 6.94 million tonnes by Dec. 20, up 4% compared with the same last week last year, official EU data showed.
EU and UK 2020/21 rapeseed imports had reached 3.24 million tonnes, down 11%, while soymeal imports stood at 8.63 million tonnes, down 8%, Palm oil imports were at 2.88 million tonnes, up 8%.
European wheat futures in Paris drifted down on Monday in thin pre-holiday trade, as concern over a new coronavirus strain triggered some selling. March milling wheat was down 0.50 euros, or 0.2%, at 208.00 euros ($254.1) a tonne.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Dec. 1-20 rose 12.4 percent to 1,010,653 tonnes from 899,322 tonnes shipped during Nov. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
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